HIGH RISK will be needed and also a tornado watch for TX-MS

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hey everyone. A severe tstm watch #149 will be replaced with a tornado watch for Louisiana and southeast Texas shortly. Also the moderate risk for Louisiana and Mississippi will become a high risk for destructive tornadoes and very large hail during the day today and into the evening hours.

A TORNADO WATCH WILL REPLACE WW 149 SHORTLY THAT WILL COVER SERN TX
NEWD INTO A SMALL PART OF W CENTAL MS. PROBABILITIES WILL BE RAISED
FOR A HIGH RISK FOR PARTS OF NERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS.


Jim

[MGC]

Yes Jim, there is a fairly significant threat of severe weather for the La/Ms area today. Pretty good line of convection already popping. Look for this line to intensify with day time heating......MGC

[WXBUFFJIM]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD
MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 149. WATCH NUMBER 149 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 1015 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON OVER WW AREA AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES STRONGLY
SHEARED/INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EXISTING CONVECTIVE
BAND IN SE TX/WRN LA. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
BAND...IN ZONE OF GREATER HEATING/LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE CLOSER TO
THE MS RIVER. 50-60 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR ABOVE MOIST...SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.


...CORFIDI

[southerngale]

Yep, they just issued a tornado watch here. That line that fizzled somewhat last night looks stronger than ever this morning. Think it will hold together until it reaches Lumberton and Beaumont?

[WXBUFFJIM]

I think it could hold together and at least maintain strong intensity if not worse. Forcing in combination with daytime heating will likely contribute to a continuation of severe weather along that line.

Some of the deadliest tornadoes will likely occur over northeast Louisiana and into west central Mississippi where turning of the winds with height is maximized.

Jim

[vbhoutex]

Yep, they just issued a tornado watch here. That line that fizzled somewhat last night looks stronger than ever this morning. Think it will hold together until it reaches Lumberton and Beaumont?

Still looks like it is holding together on the radar. doesn't look quite as intense as when it came through here, but it still has time to gather strength again before it gets there.

[chadtm80]

Stay Safe Everyone

[southerngale]

Thanks Chad!

Any reports from Houston area about the tornado warnings?

[chadtm80]

I havent seen any reports Yet Kelly.. Looks like you guys got TONS of Hail last night http://storm2k.nhcwx.com/hw3.php?foreca ... &maplinks=

[Brett Adair]

This morning an area of subsidence is trying to force its way into ERN LA/WRN MS which is allowing for some sinking air and sunshine to break through in the region. VIS satellite has been on this since 15z. Cells across the WRN portion of WW are still in squall/embedded supercell mode with some isolated tornadoes possible there early. Lowering LCL/LFC heights to the east with steepening lapse rates will be the focal point for tornadoes from Monroe, LA to Greeneville, MS. 40-50 low level jet nose will plow into the region in just a few hours as H3 divergence comes into play. Mid level dry punch will just add fuel to the fire as the linear structure approaches. As this trough takes more of a negative tilt throughout the day, watch the vacuum effect take shape. Stay close to the storm shelters in that region today....looks like a few strong/violent twisters are going to go wild out there...

[Brett Adair]

Code: Select all

  DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  1127 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005    VALID 111630Z - 121200Z    THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE  POE 25 W ESF 35 N ESF 25 ESE MLU 30 S GLH 40 NNW JAN JAN 45 NW BTR  40 NW LFT 35 SE POE 15 ESE POE.    THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE  UOX 20 ESE TUP 15 SSE CBM 10 NE LUL 20 SE MCB LFT 15 SSE LCH BPT 35  N BPT 40 W POE 55 SE SHV 30 NW MLU 35 N GLH 45 SSW MEM 25 NNW UOX 30  NE UOX.    THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE  PSX 20 W HOU 20 ENE GGG 15 N PGO BVO 20 E HUT 60 SSW HSI 20 NNW EAR  45 WNW OFK 30 SE FSD FRM 35 S RST SPI 40 SE MVN 20 WNW BNA 45 WSW  CHA AUO 30 WNW PFN.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 45 SW MSO  20 SW S80 40 S PDT 70 SW PDT 40 SSW DLS ONP.    GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP 50 SSE AUS  60 E ACT 20 NNW PRX 15 NNW TUL 20 SW ICT 45 WSW RSL 20 S MCK 30 SE  ANW 20 NNE 9V9 20 W ABR 25 SE DVL 35 N TVF 45 SE RRT 25 W DLH 15 S  MKE 25 ESE DAY 30 SW EKN 55 E DAN GSB 20 ESE FAY 45 WNW FLO 20 ENE  AVL 30 S TYS 50 WNW AHN 40 SE ATL 10 ESE AQQ.     THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF ERN LA  AND WEST CENTRAL MS...     THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN TX...LA AND MS...       THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY  REGION...     SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...  ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EXTREME SERN TX EWD  ACROSS SRN/ERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR AND MOST OF MS.     SERN TWX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY    BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO  SERN TX AND IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 15 KT DUE TO STRONG MERIDIONAL LOW  ALOFT. DEEPER TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS LIFTED NWD ACROSS SRN LA WITH  MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS  DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF  OF MS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE  PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...LIFT  WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY VERY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW  LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION  AHEAD OF THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 60 KT  LATER TODAY AS A 75 KT SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE  STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE  FOR SUPERCELLS.  ALSO...SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE  MID LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 1KM  SRH BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2. THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY  WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES ...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG LIVED.  THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST WHERE STRONGER INSOLATION  OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT  APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LA NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL MS DURING  THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.    AS A SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY  TONIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY ACROSS LA/SERN TX...IS  EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD AS THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES NEGATIVELY  TILTED. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A   DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE MS AND AL OVERNIGHT.     ERN KS/WRN MO NWD TO SE NEB/SW IA    LOW/MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO MO TONIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/500 MB TEMPERATURES  FROM -20 TO -22C/ AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE  SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES  AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE  POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT  WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VORTICITY NEAR THE  UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ELY/SELY WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE  LOW MAY BE SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.     EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...  DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN  THE MID/UPPER 50S AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW  SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEP  LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY  STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING  WIND GUSTS.    ..IMY.. 04/11/2005 

[vbhoutex]

Apparently no tornado's, but some small hail in a few areas and about 8,000 without power at the peak of the storm. We lucked out.

[GalvestonDuck]

Apparently no tornado's, but some small hail in a few areas and about 8,000 without power at the peak of the storm. We lucked out.

Nothing but spitting rain down here...but I'm not complaining.

[chadtm80]

Good.. Glad to hear that.. Thanks for the Update David

[vbhoutex]

Good.. Glad to hear that.. Thanks for the Update David

NP!! The possible tornado's were much too close to my daughter's office for comfort so I was following that very closely.

[snoopj]

Not entirely unexpected for that area at the moment, however, the area is now covered by a PDS Tornado Watch



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT MON APR 11 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 150...WW 151...WW 152...

DISCUSSION...CNTRL LA SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EWD INTO AREA NEAR MS RVR THAT HAS EXPERIENCED GREATER
SURFACE HEATING THAN POINTS FARTHER W. IN ADDITION...OTHER STORMS
ARE FORMING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER
S CNTRL LA. PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN DIFFLUENCE ZONE OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED HEATING SUGGEST THAT RISK FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND/HAIL...WILL
SPREAD E/NE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...CORFIDI

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not sure I like the way the tornado warnings are being handled. It seems the majority of them are now only "radar" indicated and not actual tornadoes..

I'd rather see another type of classification, I fear that over time people will become complacent to the true possible severity of a "real" tornado warning...

[snoopj]

I know what you mean. I'll give you an example here. The 5/4/03 storms that dropped tornadoes into the city proper of Kansas City (which I was only about 1/2 mile away from one). Someone actually wrote a letter to one of the television stations and chastised them about not showing American Idol that night due to all the storm coverage. Seriously, the same TV station had a helicopter chasing this storm (from a safe distance) and was showing LIVE pictures while the tornado was destroying property, homes, lives, etc. I swear, some people are so complacent that maybe ignoring one of these might be good for the rest of us. Bad thing to say, but some people don't get the point until it happens to them. I have no respect for people who consciously choose to ignore warning like this.

--snoopj

[yoda]

Hopefully Lindaloo is watching this closely and is safe...

[jkt21787]

Looks like another bust, high risk has been removed and nothing more than isolated tornadoes expected now, with maybe a strong tornado or two. This line looks really weak and is mostly not severe at this point. Mostly a damaging wind and hail threat.

Never saw the reason for the high risk, moderate would have covered it, and if the line doesn't strengthen soon, that may be too much as well.