Miles Lawrence

[jlauderdal]

Well we won't have Miles Lawrence to kick around anymore..he is retiring. I am applying for his position.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/11363299.htm

[depotoo]

can you post so we don't have to register?

[MWatkins]

Well we won't have Miles Lawrence to kick around anymore..he is retiring. I am applying for his position.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/11363299.htm

Well...I think part of it was that he was a holdover from the days of intergovernmental discussions that were short and to the point. And...the science of hurricane forecasting has really expanded over the last 10 years. I think there must be a reason why he wrote so many forecasts when storms were close to land or making landfall. However...I also wonder if the infamous (in our circles...not so much elsewhere) 11AM Charley discussion had anything to do with the decision.

Does the article say who is coming in to take over that open position?

MW

[MGC]

Lawrence wrote the 11am Charley discussion? I don't recall. It was most probally the worst timed discussion that has been issued on a TC approaching landfall in a while. I still can't beleive the NHC dropped the ball so badly......MGC

[jlauderdal]

Well we won't have Miles Lawrence to kick around anymore..he is retiring. I am applying for his position.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/11363299.htm

Well...I think part of it was that he was a holdover from the days of intergovernmental discussions that were short and to the point. And...the science of hurricane forecasting has really expanded over the last 10 years. I think there must be a reason why he wrote so many forecasts when storms were close to land or making landfall. However...I also wonder if the infamous (in our circles...not so much elsewhere) 11AM Charley discussion had anything to do with the decision.

Does the article say who is coming in to take over that open position?

MW

Mike,

It didn't say who was taking over but Jim Lushine is also retiring..these departures are efffective May 1.

[cyclonaut]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/di ... .017.shtml

[LSU2001]

Help a newbie out please,
What was so terrible about the 11:00 Charley discussion. I have not heard about it. Thanks in advance for explaining it to me.
Tim

[george_r_1961]

Not playing armchair met here but about 2 and a half hours after that ill fated discussion an USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft crew found that something had gone horribly wrong with that forecast. I will never forget that Friday afternoon shortly before 2pm when it was reported that Charelys winds were 145 mph and people in the path in Florida who were expecting a Cat 2 had a monster Cat 4 bearing down on them. It sent a chill up my spine. What went wrong? Well im not a trained met but IMO an unexpected course change put Charley over warmer water and more favorable upper level winds. The warmer water enhanced the convection and the upper level winds served to ventilate the cyclone; this resulted in explosive intensification. Remember it only takes a slight course change or a minor change in ANY of the storms characteristics and you have a whole new ball game and you can toss that forecast you made just 3 hours ago in the trash. In this situation landfall was imminent; the word that Charley had exploded was sent out quickly but too late for many.

[Derek Ortt]

what was horrible about that discussion was that recon had reported at about 1430 UTC that Charley was a strong category 3 hurricane as 700mb winds were 121KT. Lawrence maybe missed the data because he based the operational 95KT based upon a dropsonde from 1200 UTC.

Why a tropical cyclone update was not issued immediately afterwards is something I cannot figure out at all

[jlauderdal]

Well we won't have Miles Lawrence to kick around anymore..he is retiring. I am applying for his position.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/11363299.htm

Here is the full text for those that don't want to register:

HURRICANES

Two key forecasters retiring

BY MARTIN MERZER

mmerzer@herald.com

As if we don't have enough on our minds as the hurricane season approaches, it turns out that the dean of hurricane forecasters and South Florida's weather warning coordinator are retiring.

So, how will we get through the mean season without Miles Lawrence and Jim Lushine?

''You'll do just fine without me,'' said Lawrence, 66, of Kendall, who is leaving the National Hurricane Center on May 1 after 39 years as a lead forecaster. His departure deals a blow to colleagues who rely on his experience and scientific precision -- and enjoy playing practical jokes on the self-admitted ``neatnik.''

''Somebody better and probably smarter than I am will do this,'' said Lushine, 60, of Pembroke Pines, who will retire from the National Weather Service this summer after 42 years of service. His exit dims the outlook for South Floridians who depended on his advice -- and for reporters who always could count on him for a colorful quote.

Among Lushine's all-time greatest hits is this comment in September 2001 about two new robotic weather radio voices, ''Craig'' and ''Donna,'' stored in his computer:

``No hanky-panky in there. We'll have to watch out for that. We don't want a little El Niño running around in there.''

Few people ever accused Lawrence of being overly colorful during his long tenure at the hurricane center.

Economical of word, lean of build, bushy of eyebrow, Lawrence is known for his rigorous adherence to scientific data, his deep knowledge of computerized forecasting models and his terse, well-reasoned forecasts and explanations.

''I know every forecaster's record, and they're all pretty closely bunched, but Miles is No. 1,'' said Max Mayfield, the hurricane center's director. ``He was definitely No. 1 in the Atlantic [hurricane basin] in 2004.

``He's a man of a few words. He just sits there and turns the crank.''

After cleaning up the area, that is. Lawrence is a neatness freak.

Said Mayfield: ``In the lunch room, if I knew he was coming in, I would move the table just the smallest little bit, and sure enough, he would always move it back.''

No question about it. All of the blue pencils here, all of the red pencils there. A plastic Publix grocery bag insulates the waste basket in Lawrence's office. During the hurricane season, before he began a shift, he often emptied the garbage cans in the forecasting room.

He laughs about that now.

''Well, the place is a mess,'' he said. 'So I've been seen on TV during the 11 o'clock news by my children, emptying trash cans. `There's my father,' they say. 'The janitor.' ''

HIGH ACTIVITY

Lawrence has seen it all -- moving from the days of Teletype communications to the Internet, from periods of low hurricane activity to the current period of high activity.

Last season -- with its 15 named storms, including nine hurricanes, four of which struck Florida -- was really quite enough. Lawrence already knew it would be his last, and he was glad of it.

''I think I said my goodbyes during that season,'' Lawrence said. ``It was really a difficult season, so it made it easy to say goodbye because we were working so hard.''

He and Lushine are based in the same West Miami-Dade building on Florida International University's main campus. The building is shared by the National Hurricane Center and the South Florida office of the National Weather Service.

Lushine's official title is ''warning coordination meteorologist.'' Tall, articulate, always available, his task is to advise South Floridians of long-term and immediate weather dangers.

During the season, if Lawrence or another hurricane specialist predicted that a storm was heading in the region's general direction, Lushine issued the specific predictions -- this much rain, that much wind -- for South Florida.

LONG-RANGE DATA

In particular, Lushine is known for his long-range climatological research, studies that have substantially reduced local deaths caused by riptides and brought greater attention to the dangers posed by lightning.

In addition, he may have found a link between rain in May and the chances of hurricanes striking South Florida.

Atmospheric conditions that produce rainy Mays seem to be associated with fewer storms in this area; relatively dry Mays are associated with more storms in or near South Florida.

Yes, last May was very dry.

''I see a merging of very long-range climate predictions with the very short-range day-to-day forecasts,'' Lushine said.

``So you actually could have continuous forecasts that will go out a year or more in advance.''

Both men have devoted their lives to public service -- working on weekends, holidays, overnights -- to sound the alert about hurricanes and other dangerous weather. And both shrug when asked about that.

''Golly, that's a hard one,'' Lawrence said. ``I feel good about having worked here all these years, but I don't feel that I've made some sort of unusual sacrifice in the name of serving my country. I just feel like I've had a great job and I've been surrounded by great people.''

''It's been a rewarding experience, no question about it,'' Lushine said. ``I feel a sense of importance in being able to provide services that nobody else can.''

NEWCOMERS

Both will be replaced, Lawrence by someone who will join the five other lead hurricane forecasters, Lushine by someone who will take over his public outreach responsibilities.

For Lushine, retirement will bring travel with his wife and lots more time on the golf course.

Lawrence, an accomplished trumpet player, plans to spend more time rehearsing with several bands and orchestras, and more time with his wife, who also is retiring.

Oh, he also is assembling an e-mail list of people who might want to know if and when he is putting up his hurricane shutters.

For the most part, though, both will be sidelined -- enjoying their well-earned rest -- during this and all future hurricane seasons.

''Somehow,'' Mayfield said, ``we're going to have to get along without Miles Lawrence and Jim Lushine.''

[LSU2001]

Thanks for the replies guys, I seem to remember about the bombing of charley but that was before I found this board. Since then I have had more info and more accurate info than most of the people in my neck of the woods.
Thanks again,
Tim