Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

I would not count on the weather changing to a warm pattern next week. This is hour 312 from the 0z run and it looks pretty cool and wet to me.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... 0_312m.htm

I will say it's possible we will enter a fairly warm regime for the final third of the month, but not a guarantee by any means.

[W13]

Snow_Wizzard... you are easily impressed.

I was in Maple Valley and Auburn today and was not very impressed. It was more fun than most of the winter months. But nothing too dramatic.

Get a heavy shower... the temperature falls... rains stops and the temperature pops right back up. Standard spring-time weather in the Northern United States with cold air aloft.

Still... pretty tame compared to the PSCZ that R-Dub saw this morning or the one last week.

I hope tomorrow brings a round of wild thunderstorms to the Seattle area!! Today was too tame.

We stayed below 41 F from around noon yesterday through right now (we are at 35 F). I thought it was pretty exciting to hear a rumble of thunder in the distance, but maybe today will bring even more excitement.

[W13]

Currently 35 F after a low this morning of 30 F! Pretty cool, too bad there weren't many showers around early this morning or we may have woken up to some snow.

Hmm... I wonder if Ravensdale and Palmer got some snow ....

[W13]

Looking at the weather station in Ravensdale (http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWARAVEN1), it appears that we got colder than them and are still colder than them as of 8:50 AM. Pretty awesome!

[W13]

Looks like a pretty good cell is almost here, I wonder if it will include some hail or wet snow with our already low temperatures.

[W13]

W13... its NOT going below freezing tonight with wet snow. You are at the same temperature you were at in the middle of the afternoon!!

I remember you saying the same thing over and over again all winter and it rarely happened even then.

In April... only in a convergence zone.

Well, well, well, guess who is wrong now?

Not only did we get to freezing, we got down to 30 F (two degrees below freezing). And don't count out the wet snow just yet, a fairly heavy cell is almost to our neck of the woods with our temperature being 36 F and a Dew Point of 34 F and falling slightly. Also, a heavy shower has been known to knock down the temperature a bit.

There is probably a 50% chance that we will see some kind of frozen precip within the next half hour or so, but one thing is for certain it got below freezing here.

[W13]

Well, we just had a Rain/Snow Mix for a few minutes. It didn't last long (in fact, nothing if falling from the sky even though the NWS radar shows that we should be getting moderate precipitation), but it left a little bit of slush on our deck which I got a picture of.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/xbmedia/detail?.dir=/e43e&.dnm=ec94.jpg

I can't wait to see what today and tommorow have in store for us!

[Guest]

Yeah TT doesn't know what he's getting himself into when he makes dumb predictions like that... MANY places got to or below freezing last night. I am expecting that more places will get wet snow and freezing overnight temperatures here in the next few days...

[Guest]

TT said...TT-SEA
Category 1



Joined: 07 Jan 2005
Posts: 1026
Location: North Bend, WA
Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2005 2:58 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1) The pattern is going to change by the middle of next week. Much drier and warmer.

2) As I said... the weather yesterday north of Everett was EXCITING... south of Everett was quite BORING. Hopefully today it is exciting everywhere. Note... I did not say the weather Bellingham was boring yesterday. Calm down dude.

3) Snow_Wizzard picks the winters he wants to repeat and then goes backward to find any shred of similarity. That is not scientific. That is emotional. Talk about creating your own reality!! Get a grip Brennan.


OK... TT... answer a few Questions...

1) What makes you think the pattern will change by the middle of next week... and what does that have anything to do with what is happening now?

2) you said the weather was quite normal and boring yesturday... but you didn't say where it was boring... Just because the weather is boring at your house doesn't mean it was the same everywhere else... from the sounds of it, if you have a boring weather day, EVERYONE DOES... YESTURDAY WAS THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER DAY SINCE the wet snow even in early february and maybe even since early january. WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT THERE WILL BE EXCITING WEATHER EVERYWHERE? its not like SHOWERS MEANS WIDESPREAD... ITS HIT OR MISS. Today there is better chance for more exciting weather in more widespread areas...
3) what makes you so sure that SNowwizz's info is bogus? How do you know he isn't 100% on with everything he is saying?

I don't think i need to be getting the grip.. if i can remember, you were the one bathing in all of your rain (10+) back between mid march and early April.... you weren't complaing then... now it's back to your old self when the most exciting weather of the year is PRESENT.... ITS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW... LOOK AT SOME SATELLITE PICS OR SOMETHING

[Guest]

TT you can't argu with the facts... this month is averaging below normal, my precip is WAYY ABOVE NORMAL for average... today through friday will be considerably below normal as well... I really don't think you are hitting the spot on the pattern change.. Just because you got that last one right doesn't mean people will jump on your bandwagon this time..

[W13]

We are currently sitting at 40 F, after a high so far of 42 F. It only spiked up for a few minutes and quickly began to fall again. This is without any heavy shower. Remember yesterday we went from 46 F to 38 F in just a few minutes, and that shower wasn't even that heavy.

I would not be surprised at all if we saw at least a rain/snow mix during the day today and maybe some snow late tonight into tommorow morning if there are still numerous showers left around the area.

Now this is what I call active, exciting weather!

[snow_wizzard]

For the second day in a row, Sea - Tac was just short of a record low. The one that is really shocking is that Boeing Field dropped to 33. That could easily be the coldest they have recorded this late in the season for decades! This is not just a typical April cool period. This air mass is so cold, and there is still a HUGE pool of it left off the coast. The second trough looks alive and well also, and will keep us solidly below normal through early next week. KEEP IT COMING!!!!!!!

No question that it would not take much for somebody to see some snow over the next couple of days. Just a really heavy persistent shower, or a rogue shower late at night would do it. The big question remains...who will get most of the exciting weather. This is not a C zone situation so it's a crap shoot.

It is becoming incresingly clear that our chances are low of any warm periods this month. The latest 12z run keeps things pretty troughy, although not as cold as now. At any rate the monthly average should be quite low!

[W13]

Looks like the area just west of Sequim is really getting pounded right now. It's been like that for about a half hour, so it will be quite interesting to see how much rain they are getting from this.

Edit: Looking at some of the weather stations on WeatherBug around the area supposedly getting pounded at the moment, it doesn't look all that bad. Rainfall amounts are generally around 0.04"/hour, but the main factor is the winds are up to 25mph in some places near Chimacum and Port Townsend.

[W13]

Even Shelton got down to freezing, as did MANY other places throughout Western Washington.

Like snow_wizzard said, snow tonight is defintely not out of the question for most places. We will just have to wait and see how things play out through the course of the day and later on tonight.

Currently holding steady at 42 F with a Dew Point of 36 F and the Humidty at 77%.

[W13]

Now there is something I haven't seen much before. The temperature jumped from 43 F to 48 F in less than a minute. Pretty amazing stuff.

Edit: Now the temp is dropping again as fast as it rose.

[TT-SEA]

Brennan... I did indicate MANY times that the weather yesterday was exciting from Everett north. Pointing out the PSCZ that R-Dub saw in the morning. I made a very clear distinction between the weather up there and the passing showers that places south of Everett saw.

W13... if you had precipitation last night you would not have been so cold. It got colder because the skies CLEARED out. That picture of your deck is not too exciting!! A damp deck in April... wow. Nothing personal... but there was nothing in that picture.

Snow_Wizzard... I do not have data from 1928 but one year IS NOT any proof at all. Give me a set of years with spring weather like this one. There is no correlation. Trust me. Global patterns are not that predictable. I predict normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in the coming winter. Maybe one snowstorm that quickly melts in a Pineapple Express. That is based on my research for comparable years, looking at predicted indexes, and the fact that we will have a weak La Nina. I KNOW that you predict a cold winter every year. I know it. Its what you LIVE for. Just emotion... no science. Lacks credibility.


Lots of showers around this afternoon. Not enough sunshine for awesome convection though.

[snow_wizzard]

Well...It seems that Covington can get the good stuff after all! We have cell after cell of snow pellets moving through. There is actually a coating on the ground. I do have pix and will post them later. Some of the pellets are up to 3/8" in diameter. I'm on a roll TT! Watch out when I get on a roll. I can do some good predicting!

[TT-SEA]

You had pellets... not snow. A big difference. It is quite common to get hail/sleet pellets in this spring-time pattern anywhere in the northern U.S.

This is just not that excpetional. Hell... even Snoqualmie Pass has had very little accumulating snow though it is FINALLY snowing there now.

Unfortunately... you always predict cold weather so when it actually gets cold you say you're "on a roll" when in fact the weather is going through a cold cycle and it finally matches up with your perpetually cold forecast.

I would give you MUCH MORE credit if you were more objective. Honestly... I can say that you are one of the least objective weather observers I have ever encountered. I have recognized some of my own faults by discussing weather with you and I try to be more open to all possibilities.

By definition you will be right half the time if you always predict below normal temperatures. Outside of us weather geeks on here... you would have NO credibility. Meaning... if you were constantly making your wild predictions to the general population (i.e. NON weather geeks) you would be completely dismissed.

That is not science.

[R-Dub]

1) The pattern is going to change by the middle of next week. Much drier and warmer.

WHOOO HOOOO!!!! I hope TT is right, I am ready for the sun and warm to return.

Snowizzard and Brennan might be mad at me for saying this, but I have no reason to argue with TT, he has been for the most part very accurate in predicting pattern changes.

Bring on the sun........Well I wouldn't mind seeing some thunderstorm action today though

We did have a very quick moving cell go by about 45Min ago that dumped a lot of rain for a short period. Now its currently Mostly Cloudy and windy with a temp of 44.9 degrees.
We also had light frost up here this morning, not enough to delay the golfers though, with a temp of 32.9 degrees. Looking at the weather data from work from past Aprils, most every April (exept for '03 and '04) have been similar to this one so far. We have had rain/snow mix at least one day in April from 1991-2002. Also many years had a few days of freezing or below. I do think we are back to a very normal weather cycle for the pac northwest. So I have a feeling next winter will be normal as well. 1 or 2 arctic blasts, a couple wind storms, and lots of rain.

[TT-SEA]

Yet on here... I find this debate entertaining.

And you do have a great passion for weather so I enjoy all the discussion!!