MGC: 2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast

[MGC]

I expect a slightly above average 2005 season.

11 Named systems
7 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

Atlantic Basin will continue its warm phase with above normal SST.
ENSO will be neutral by summer.

Just like last season, the majority of tropical storm formation will occur in August, September and early October. July could possibly see one TC. Once again, conditons should be condusive for TC formation during the heart of the season. We should see another season of long track hurricanes originating in the Cape Verte region.

By region, the GOM should see its usual assortment of weak tropical cyclones. No TC that developes in the GOM will exceed Cat 1 intensity. The only exception being a potential long track hurricane simular to Ivan's track. A TC or two should develope in the NW Caribbean. The western Atlantic should see a TC develope along a old frontal boundry. The Cape Verde region should produce at least 3 tropical cyclones. Wether any of these system will affect the US will be dependent on the strenght and location of the Bermuda ridge.

I don't expect the quantity of landfalling system this 2005 season. No major landfalls, Florida hopefull will get a break. 2-3 landfalling TC this season with at least one hurricane at Cat 2 strenght.

The past several seasons I have under estimated the number and strength of tropical cyclones. In part, I attribute this to the liberal naming of several suspect systems the past several seasons. My ENSO forecast have been dead on the past two seasons. In no way to I expect the number of hurricanes that form to become major as did last season. 2004 was a one in a generation seasons. All in all, it will be another challenging hurricane season ahead of many of us......MGC

[MWatkins]

By region, the GOM should see its usual assortment of weak tropical cyclones. No TC that developes in the GOM will exceed Cat 1 intensity. The only exception being a potential long track hurricane simular to Ivan's track. A TC or two should develope in the NW Caribbean. The western Atlantic should see a TC develope along a old frontal boundry. The Cape Verde region should produce at least 3 tropical cyclones. Wether any of these system will affect the US will be dependent on the strenght and location of the Bermuda ridge.

Hey MGC...always enjoy reading your thoughts...you're not afraid to go against the grain...so I have a question...

From a landfall perspective...can you expand on what led you to the conclusions above...always interested in the long range stuff since I tend not to be very good at that kind of thing.

MW

[MGC]

I use simple trend analysis. I am a firm believer in trends in weather patterns. A trend is a friend. Plus, I tend to stick with long term stastical data, one reason I busted so badly on the number of major hurricanes last season. I will never forecast the number of majors we had last season. Of course you have to keep an open eye for the trend change and be ready to pounce. Like the pattern change that should occur this week as the trough shifts east and bring winter back to the EUS.....MGC

[MWatkins]

I use simple trend analysis. I am a firm believer in trends in weather patterns. A trend is a friend. Plus, I tend to stick with long term stastical data, one reason I busted so badly on the number of major hurricanes last season. I will never forecast the number of majors we had last season. Of course you have to keep an open eye for the trend change and be ready to pounce. Like the pattern change that should occur this week as the trough shifts east and bring winter back to the EUS.....MGC

Thanks for taking the time to answer...I wonder though that we may be at the beginning of a longer-period trend of landfalls such as in the 1940's. We are now...and I was surprised at this...11 years into the multidedical up turn in hurricane activity. The 1990's and early 2000's are probably going to be remembered for all of the close calls (except in the Caribbean)...but I wonder if the 2004 trend will carry through in 05. Be interesting to see how the Bermuda high starts to set up come June/July.

With you on the Nino going away (too late for California though)...I was looking at the EPAC anoms today:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

And just for fun I flipped over to the Atlantic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anom.gif

MAN...the water is warm for this time of year over almost the entire basin.

MW

[MGC]

The Atlantic basin is likely to see above normal TC activity for another good decade. Too bad we didn't have satellites 100 years ago. I think the long term average of number of TC per year would be 1 or 2 higher. My real only concern with this years forecast is the length and strength of ENSO......MGC

[mobilebay]

What you said about most storms that form in the GOM remain weak is true. Two exceptions that come to mind is Brett, and Opal. However, storms that form outside the gulf and move in, are very different. One has to only look at last year with Ivan ( you mentioned), and Charley.

[HurricaneBill]

What you said about most storms that form in the GOM remain weak is true. Two exceptions that come to mind is Brett, and Opal. However, storms that form outside the gulf and move in, are very different. One has to only look at last year with Ivan ( you mentioned), and Charley.

Also Hurricane Audrey in 1957. The only hurricane to reach Category 4 in the Atlantic during June.

I'm curious, do you think Audrey had a similar situation to Charley? An out-of-season weather pattern that allowed her to rapidly intensify? Although, I don't know if Audrey was a midget hurricane. She doesn't look like one on the radar pic I have of her.

[mobilebay]

What you said about most storms that form in the GOM remain weak is true. Two exceptions that come to mind is Brett, and Opal. However, storms that form outside the gulf and move in, are very different. One has to only look at last year with Ivan ( you mentioned), and Charley.

Also Hurricane Audrey in 1957. The only hurricane to reach Category 4 in the Atlantic during June.

I'm curious, do you think Audrey had a similar situation to Charley? An out-of-season weather pattern that allowed her to rapidly intensify? Although, I don't know if Audrey was a midget hurricane. She doesn't look like one on the radar pic I have of her.

I don't know for sure. I don't know if anybody does. It just amazes me that it reached Cat 4 strength in JUNE. Water temps are just about on the borderline in June in most parts of the Gulf. Also the upper level enviroment is almost always destructive in June. Audrey just simply amazes me. Always has.

[Derek Ortt]

Opal did not even form in the GOM. It formed in the NW Caribbean and also moved into the GOM

The only 3 major canes that I know of that formed in the GOM are Audrey, Alicia, and Bret

[MGC]

Yes, Dereck, a significant hurricane that formes only in the GOM is rare.....MGC

[The Big Dog]

I expect a slightly above average 2005 season.

11 Named systems
7 Hurricanes
2-3 Major Hurricanes

Yeah, I know technically this is above average, but when was the last time we had an "average" season of 9. Seems like 11-13 is quickly becoming the norm.

[Andrew92]

Actually 2002 is considered below normal. Yeah we had 12 named storms, but many of them lived very short lives, and only 4 of those 12 became hurricanes.

The average number of named storms since 1995 rounded is 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes per hurricane. (Without rounding, the numbers are 13.9 TS, 7.8 hurricanes, 3.5 IH)

-Andrew92

[HurricaneBill]

Intense (Category 3 or higher) hurricanes that formed exclusively in the Gulf of Mexico:

1855: Storm #5 (Category 3/ Category 3 landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi)

1856: Storm #1 (Category 4 landfall on Louisiana. MSW: 150 mph/ 934 mb) I think this was the "Last Island" Hurricane. I think this might have formed outside the Gulf, because its point of origin is off the SW Florida coast as a Category 1 hurricane.

1860: Storm #1 (Category 3 landfall on east Louisiana)

1879: Storm #4 (Category 3 landfall on Louisiana) This one may have originated outside the Gulf.

1932: Storm #2 (Category 4 landfall on Texas)

1945: Storm #5 (Category 4 landfall on Texas)

1957: Hurricane Audrey (Category 4 landfall on TX/LA border)

1960: Hurricane Ethel (Category 5 peak/ Category 1 landfall on Mississippi) Ethel will probably be downgraded to a 2 or a 3 in reanalysis.

1977: Hurricane Anita (Category 5 landfall on Mexico)

1983: Hurricane Alicia (Category 3 landfall on Texas)

1999: Hurricane Bret (Category 4 peak/ Category 3 landfall on Texas)

[mobilebay]

Opal did not even form in the GOM. It formed in the NW Caribbean and also moved into the GOM

The only 3 major canes that I know of that formed in the GOM are Audrey, Alicia, and Bret

Actually you are correct. Opal formed in the EXTREME Northwest Caribbean Sea near 19.1 and 87.3. If you are counting only a LLC, because that is all it was when it moved into the GOM. Looking at best track data it stayed over the Yucatan for several Advisories. Hard to believe it was actually a Depression , before entering the GOM.

[mobilebay]

Also, has anyone ever read about any of the upper level conditions that surrounded Hurricane Audrey in June of 1957. This seems like a very rare event.

[dvdweatherwizard]

Also, has anyone ever read about any of the upper level conditions that surrounded Hurricane Audrey in June of 1957. This seems like a very rare event.

Here are the actual re-analysis upper level conditions (200 mb and 500 mb) during Audrey's existence from the Plymouth State website http://vortex.plymouth.edu/reanal-u.html. Hope this helps.


200 mb










500 mb

[mobilebay]

Thanks. Usually the enviroment is so brutal in June you can't event get a sheared Tropical storm in the GOM. I think this was truly a Once in a lifetime event.

[Derek Ortt]

I have another hypothesis as to why there are not more powerful storms in the GOM in Hune

Most systems that form in the GOM can be traced back to a wave. Most waves in June are SALled to death. Those that do survive are often very weak and an LLC has to form in the GOM, which takes time and prevents the systems from becoming strong before landfall.

One other note, most, if not all of those major canes that formed in the GOM moved slower than a snail on crutches, giving them the necessary time to form an LLC, get organized, the intensify. Opal was able to form its LLC in the Carib, and somehow organize over the Yucatan, that major status in the GOM was a near certainty

[mobilebay]

"slower than a snail on crutches" Now that was a good one Derek.

[MGC]

Still calling for neutral conditons for hurricane season. Current Kelvin wave, nor subsequent ones should not induce an El Nino.....MGC