Joe Bastardi on the Big Dog today...

[Steve]

Don't use this thread to attack or praise Joe B. And don't shoot the messenger. We were discussing Hurricane Alley's landfall forecasts last week and some people said they don't like the ideas. I opined that one day someone may hit on the research and we'll not be looking at this stuff as voodoo just as we no longer look at forecast numbers as voodoo thanks to Dr. Gray bringing the science to the mainstream.

Here's the recap - Joe said he's not releasing his forumlas, but gave some early insight into what he sees in 2005. He said that his private clients already have his preliminiary forecast and hopefully it will save some of them some money down the road. For his subscribers, you know that last year's intensity forecasts were way out of whack with normal years, yet it was still underdone. I think a normal year has something like a factor of 39 and he had progged around 84. He said that he thought it was low because what he was coming up with was way out there but he had to tone it down because no one would ever believe it. I'm not sure where it all ended up, but it had to top 100 on his chart.

The Big Dog was mostly about water temperature profiles in April and how many landfalling seasons had cool water close to the US coastline in areas where a storm ended up hitting later that season depending on how the SSTA's evolved. He said his forecast would be coming out in May. The hint was that this season will be above-average in landfall intensity and unfortunately some of that landfall appears to be centered around Florida. However, the landfall intensity scale will be lower than last year's.

I usually carry his service between May and October, so I'll be able to read his forecast when it comes out or soon afterwards. I'm looking forward to see if he can continue the success he's had in most of the last few years since he's been doing the work. The one year I disagreed with him (was 2002), especially on the Gulf (and I'm on record here or CFHC), he left out the obvious threats to the Western Gulf and LA (Isidore, Lili) where we saw some action. But that aside, most of the people who routinely trashed his or anyone else's landfall or landfall intensity forecasts are closing themselves off to the possibility that one day we may be able to glean from clues where the highest risk of action might be in an upcoming season.

Steve

[Anonymous]

I think JB is good. On August 12, 2004 he said he thought Charley would bomb and it did. As Ivan plowed through the Caribbean, he was on FOX NEWS and said that he thought the NHC track into the Big Bend area was wrong and that Ivan would hit between "Morgan City and Apalachicola". He was right.

[skywarn]

I concur also. Later in his forecast analysis of 2004 he had the central Gulf coast area as a high risk for a strike . With Ivan it materialized. I respect his forecasts as well as other professional mets. forecasts (even those on Storm 2k). No one can be absolutely sure of exact numbers, intensities or landfalls.I believe they give it their best with what infomation , clues or scientific analysis they have. We should not be too judgemental with them so long as their forecasts are not irrational and way out in left field and I believe we have a smart enough membership at Storm2k to spot that.

[MWatkins]

Please forgive my ignorance...

Who is the Big Dog?

MW

[TampaFl]

MW, I belive that is his "nickname" that he uses on his videos.

Robert

[wxman57]

MW, I belive that is his "nickname" that he uses on his videos.

Robert

The Big Dog isn't Joe's nickname, it refers to possible big events/storms. The snow storm that hit Denver last weekend was a "big dog", for example.

[TampaFl]

Thanks for the correction WXman57.

Robert

[The Big Dog]

MW, I belive that is his "nickname" that he uses on his videos.

Robert

The Big Dog isn't Joe's nickname, it refers to possible big events/storms. The snow storm that hit Denver last weekend was a "big dog", for example.

That's it! Where's my lawyer??!!

[hurricanetrack]

Did someone say something about a big dog? How about "loaded for bear"? Where is the loaded bear? Is that related to the right to bear arms? I also thought it was "big ticket item" not "big dog". We also refer to extreme weather as "monster snow storm" or "monster hurricane".

I have a dog, but it is not very big. Although it does bark a lot. Maybe I should look to see if bigdog.com is available....might be worth something since so many people seem interested in large dogs.

:D

[hurricanetrack]

Please forgive my ignorance...

Who is the Big Dog?

MW

Perhaps the Big Dog has something to do with the Velvet Fog? yes, yes?

[MWatkins]

Please forgive my ignorance...

Who is the Big Dog?

MW

Perhaps the Big Dog has something to do with the Velvet Fog? yes, yes?

Velvet Fog? Is that a spiderman villian?

Thanks for the clarification everyone...I haven't been keeping up on my JB-speak.

MW