Will this Kelvin Wave trigger El Nino?

[cycloneye]

Luis, I don't get what the blue means? Please help. Does it mean strong el Nino or weak? or neither?

Blue colors are cooler waters and if those form all across the equatorial Pacific thatis La Nina signature but right now it is a 50/50 proposition having El Nino or not during hurricane season 2005.

Luis, my god First, let me make sure I understand you correctly: There is a distinct possiblity of La Nina now? Wouldn't that just guarantee an explosive atlantic hurricane season ala 2004?

If that's true, the only good news for the U.S. is the continued absence of the Bermuda high right?

NO LA NINA 0% chance.At best the most close to la nina is Neutral ENSO and that may be the case but I am leaning towards a weak el nino for summer.

[StormChasr]

I concur, except I believe it will be a stronger than anticipated El Nino. Look at the "down under" summer activity with tropical cyclones, and I think it will show this to be the case.

[cyclonaut]

In any event it wont be strong enough to affect the hurricane season all that much.If I lived along the gulf or east coast or in the Caribbean I would be on high alert just the same.

[Anonymous]

I concur, except I believe it will be a stronger than anticipated El Nino. Look at the "down under" summer activity with tropical cyclones, and I think it will show this to be the case.

But, it could be a win/lose situation. If the ridge holds, and there IS an El Nino, the US is still at risk.

[cyclonaut]

StormChasr believes that any El Nino weak/moderate or strong is going to shut down the hurricane season completely & destroy all ridges & troughs as well.

Even if Grey &/or NOAA drops their #'s down to 9 or 10 storms that is still an average season.If you live in Fla you get hit more during slow to average seasons than busy ones so I dont know what all the hype is about.

[StormChasr]

But, it could be a win/lose situation. If the ridge holds, and there IS an El Nino, the US is still at risk.

Ridge? What ridge? There isn't any at present, and last year was an anomaly--get over it, and drop the whole "Florida will get hit" routine.

[Andrew92]

But, it could be a win/lose situation. If the ridge holds, and there IS an El Nino, the US is still at risk.

Ridge? What ridge? There isn't any at present, and last year was an anomaly--get over it, and drop the whole "Florida will get hit" routine.

Just remember, all it takes is ONE. Even if Florida only sees one hit, if it's a big one, then 2005 will go down as a bad hurricane season for them, just like 1992 and 2004 did.

El Nino or not, there WILL be storms in 2005.

-Andrew92

[MGC]

I don't think a significant el nino will develope this season. SSTA are running a degree C below normal in the Nino 1+2 region, and are just a couple of tenth above normal in the Nino 3 region. Only the Nino 4 region is above normal. Even the Nino 4 region is cooling. El Nino will not be a significant factor in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane seaons......MGC

[Andrew92]

I don't think a significant el nino will develope this season. SSTA are running a degree C below norman in the Nino 1+2 region, and are just a couple of tenth above normal in the Nino 3 region. Only the Nino 4 region is above normal. Even the Nino 4 region is cooling. El Nino will not be a significant factor in the 2005 Atlantic hurricane seaons......MGC

I agree. El Nino may have a *slight* impact, but not a huge impact, which is why I said 13/7/3.

Not to bash StormChasr, because for all I know we may all eat crow, but I just do not see the correlation between all the storms in the Southern Pacific and Indian Oceans and activity in the Atlantic. And as far as telling people to stop saying Florida will get hit, ya know what, NOBODY KNOWS what will happen! That's why opinions go around.

StormChasr, I respect your opinion, and I'm no met, but at the same time your opinion doesn't seem all that logical to me. Then again, what do I know?

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

I know that the members who like to see many hurricanes may be dissapointed when they see that big thing at the grafics above.Looks huge that warm wave propagating eastward.For sure el nino 1-2 region off South America will warm but the question is if this wave will be strong enough to trigger el nino to appear at the equatorial Pacific.Maybe the aussies are right forecasting el nino(See link below and read about what the Australians are saying about ENSO).Let's see how all evolves in the next couple of months with this Kelvin Wave and any more wind bursts that may form and transport eastward more warm waters.The blue cool waters are expanding at the dateline so it will be very interesting to see which side has the upper hand or the warm waters or the cool ones.

[Andrew92]

I just want to make it known, my disagreements with StormChasr do not reflect what I actually want out of the hurricane season. After so many active seasons and last year, I wouldn't mind a quieter season. And I CERTAINLY do NOT want Florida to get hit this year. I was only disagreeing because I haven't been understanding the logic with his posts. Maybe I will when the season gets going, if he indeed is right, which he could be, for all I know.

-Andrew92

[StormChasr]

I just want to make it known, my disagreements with StormChasr do not reflect what I actually want out of the hurricane season. After so many active seasons and last year, I wouldn't mind a quieter season. And I CERTAINLY do NOT want Florida to get hit this year. I was only disagreeing because I haven't been understanding the logic with his posts. Maybe I will when the season gets going, if he indeed is right, which he could be, for all I know.

-Andrew92

That's okay Andrew. I enjoy polite debate, and the fact that there are differences of opinion in this area is wonderful. I am probably bucking the herd in forecasting an El Nino--my observations are just in terms of looking at the maps, and contemplating what are the PROBABILITIES of such an event. Given the circumstances, it is clear that what will happen is up for grabs, and anybody could be right. Also, it could be a ferocious hurriccane season with NO landfalls or a minimal one, and Florida could be hit again. It is anyone's best theory, and time will tell.

[x-y-no]

Still waiting for any significant effect ... there's a bit of surface warming showing up at around 110w, which I take to be the first sign of the surfacing Kelvin wave, but it sure isn't too impressive yet. And if anything, the cool anomaly between the coast and 90w is looking stronger.

The MJO feature entering the west Pacific now is much stronger than the one which launched the current Kelvin wave - OTOH, there seems to be somewhat less heat to work with in that region than in February. It'll be a month or so before we can have any good idea how that works out.

I'm feeling fairly confident that we'll have no el Nino in the nino1,2 regions through the season, and at most a mild one in nino3&4, kind of similar to last year. That doesn't mean the season will neccesarily be like last year, of course.

[x-y-no]

The April 8 centered pentad is there in the animation now (see cycloneye's post above) and it looks to me like the wave is reaching its limit - the energy is surfacing, leading to the thinning of the temperature anomaly apparent in the animation.

The surface anomaly map:



is starting to show some more pronounced warming centered on about 110w (and actually most pronounced out at 120w), but it's hardly impressive and the cool anomaly between the coast and 90w is hanging tough.

Aside from a moderate warm area around the dateline, nino3&4 remain very close to neutral and 100 to 200 meters down are actually below average, which suggests to me that even if we get another WWB like in February, there isn't as much energy available for the resulting Kelvin wave.

We'll see, but I'm getting more and more confident in my prediction of a neutral ENSO for the bulk of the season.

[cycloneye]

A new image update has comed out and shows the Kelvin Wave weakening or shrinking.And the cool waters at el nino 4 are expanding eastward.

[Scorpion]

I don't think there will be a Nino this year anymore. That Kelvin wave was overhyped here I guess. Too bad I changed my numbers already.

[cycloneye]

A new image update 18 of April has comed out and shows the Kelvin Wave weakening or shrinking.And the cool waters at el nino 4 are expanding eastward although not as big as the kelvin wave was.If you want to know what I think about ENSO go to Tropical Analysis forum.