Well, the SOI has fallen off the cliff again- now down to -41 and likely to continue to fall. The lowest of the season was -63 or so back in Feb.
However, we had a massive drop about this time last year- and then it slowly rebounded for most of the hurricane season- never too positive and never too negative.
We will have to wait and see what, if any, implications this has on Pacific warming. Right now the western and central Pacific are not overly warm. The east Pac is also quite cool, relative to normal. It's mid April and there are no immediate signs of major warming in the Pacific. Can it last?
Negative SOI
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hurricanetrack
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Negative SOI
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cycloneye
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I guess that we will have to wait until late May or early June to see much more concrete data and by then we will get a better idea of on what side of the coin will the equatorial pacific waters will flip to.
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cyclonaut
Interesting to note that last season the SOI stayed negative the whole season (according to link below) & it was a busy season in terms of landfalls & #'s.The SOI last season was more negative than in 92!
Other things that caught my eye was that in 95 the SOI was negative 5 out of the 1st 6 months of the year & only barely got positive during the season & we all know how much activity there was that year.
In 26 the SOI was negative from Jan thru Aug & Miami got hit by the Great Miami Hurricane.
65 the SOI was running quite a bit below in Sept & Betsy strikes South Fla.
In 69 the SOI was negative for 9 out of the 12 months including Aug & Camille happened that year.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
Other things that caught my eye was that in 95 the SOI was negative 5 out of the 1st 6 months of the year & only barely got positive during the season & we all know how much activity there was that year.
In 26 the SOI was negative from Jan thru Aug & Miami got hit by the Great Miami Hurricane.
65 the SOI was running quite a bit below in Sept & Betsy strikes South Fla.
In 69 the SOI was negative for 9 out of the 12 months including Aug & Camille happened that year.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
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hurricanetrack
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Good data
That is great research. I could not recall the SOI for last summer in definite terms- but I did remember that it was certainly not overaly positive- that was for sure.
We might be on to something here with this. As long as an overwhelming, cane-killing El Nino does NOT develop, it really could shape up to be a nasty season ahead.
One thing we do know- we'll know the outcome by November!
We might be on to something here with this. As long as an overwhelming, cane-killing El Nino does NOT develop, it really could shape up to be a nasty season ahead.
One thing we do know- we'll know the outcome by November!
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HurricaneBill
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cycloneye wrote:I guess that we will have to wait until late May or early June to see much more concrete data and by then we will get a better idea of on what side of the coin will the equatorial pacific waters will flip to.
Concrete data?
How is pavement going to help us? Must be part of the Texas Roadkill theory.
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