2005 Season Active Or Not "It Only Takes One"

[cycloneye]

Active,On average or Below the average anyway it turns out to be this upcomming season we must be prepared for any threats that may arise during the season in your area.All the discussion about if El Nino will develop or not,about if the bermuda High will establlish itself in what position and strengh,about the abnormal sst's in the tropical atlantic or the MDR area east of the Lesser Antilles,how the Surface pressures will be,how the QBO winds will blow and how the azores high will be in terms of position and strengh would mean nothing for an area that may be strucked by a cane no matter how the factors above are.Remember that below average seasons haved brought many destructive canes to make landfall and to mention only a couple were the powerful Hurricane (1928) and Andrew (1992) (Look at grafics below).In other words no matter how the season turns out eventually if it is a slow one or an active one you must be prepared because only one hurricane that makes landfall in your area will change your life for many weeks ahead.

[StormChasr]

Agree strongly--all it takes is one. Had Charley been the only one last year, it would have caught many with their pants down, and unprepared.

[Anonymous]

Why do people call 1969 an unactive season? We had 18 named storms that year.

[Andrew92]

1935, 1960, 1965, 1972, and 1983 are also examples of inactive seasons that brought a devastating hurricane.

1935: Labor Day Hurricane, C5
1960: Donna
1965: Betsy
1972: Agnes (C1 but still caused lots of flooding)
1983: Alicia

-Andrew92

[StormChasr]

1989---Hugo??

[cycloneye]

1989---Hugo??

1989 had 11 named storms a slightly above season.

[HurricaneBill]

1969 wasn't an inactive season. However, there was a weak to moderate El Nino that year.

Conditions allowed for an active season despite the El Nino.

[Rainband]

Yep, it only takes one. After last year we all know to be prepared

[gatorcane]

there's a huge difference between 1928 and 1989...it's quite apparent that the Bermuda High was in place in 1928 but was much weaker in 1989...the problem is that this year will be more like 1928 as far as Bermuda high position/strength is concerned (just like 2004).

[KatDaddy]

Yes Indeed. Only one............Alicia 83

[gatorcane]

KatDaddy you are lucky you are in Texas...I have a house in Boca Raton and South Florida is probably the most vulernable places to live as far as hurricanes are concerned. I'm very scared about this hurricane season

[boca]

Boca_Chris do you live in East or West Boca?

[cycloneye]

there's a huge difference between 1928 and 1989...it's quite apparent that the Bermuda High was in place in 1928 but was much weaker in 1989...the problem is that this year will be more like 1928 as far as Bermuda high position/strength is concerned (just like 2004).

It is still early to say a bold statement like that because we dont have an idea yet of how the Bermuda high will be positioned and how strong it will be.By Early June to Mid July we will definitly have a much better idea on how the Bermuda High will settle in.

[StormChasr]

KatDaddy you are lucky you are in Texas...I have a house in Boca Raton and South Florida is probably the most vulernable places to live as far as hurricanes are concerned. I'm very scared about this hurricane season

So is Monroe county (Keys), and Cartaret (outer banks). Also, for the people in New Orleans, one must always be vigilant. I hope a cat 3,4, or 5 NEVER comes anywhere the Big Easy, as it is extremely vulnerable, and I worry about those folks.

[Derek Ortt]

and it can happy at any time during the season.

1957, in late June Audrey formed

in 2001, just 5 measly days after June 1, Allison

[HurricaneBill]

and it can happy at any time during the season.

1957, in late June Audrey formed

in 2001, just 5 measly days after June 1, Allison

Allison also formed right away in 1995. She formed on June 3rd and hit Florida on June 5th.

1995 is noteworthy as Allison's only appearance as a hurricane.

[Andrew92]

Allison in 1989 also formed in June! Talk about a woman in a hurry....

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

This is true....we don't know the postition and strength of the Bermuda high this year. Let me prephrase my statement with IMHO....

Boca I live in East Boca...you are in West Boca right?

[StormChasr]

This is true....we don't know the postition and strength of the Bermuda high this year. Let me prephrase my statement with IMHO....

People blame the Bermuda high needlessly. It was the position of troughs that guided storms into Florida, NOT the Bermuda high. Upper air patterns were far more instrumental in creating a situation that is probably hard to duplicate for the future. As everybody has pointed out, however, a landfall in extreme South Florida is NOT unusual, and ONE storm landfalling could happen in any given year, even a slow one (case in point--Andrew, whose landfall owed itself to troughs and favorable upper atmospheric conditions, not a Bermuda high).

[cyclonaut]

I agree with you on the that last post StormChasr!

This Bermuda High thing is getting beaten up like a rented mule.Way too much emphasis is being put on this.Statistically the month when South Fla is at greatest risk to see a TC is in Oct anyway & let me tell you that the BH is the last thing that steers storms toward South Fla in that month.Also I can recall many seasons down here in Fla when there was a easterly flow almost all season long & then when the hurricanes were out there that was replaced with troughiness & the canes all recurved or never came close.Last season was a exception.

We wont know how this season's TCs are going to interact with the various ridges & troughs until all the players are on the field months from now.