Cyclonaut's 2005 Hurricane Season Forecast

[cyclonaut]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cyclonaut's 2005 Hurricane Season Forecast

EDITION 1

Hello & welcome to my 1st ever public forecast.

This season is looking more & more like it should be a relatively active one.Whether or not it will be as active as last season remains to be seen but I expect a average to slightly above average season ahead in terms of overall storms & I also expect several landfalls throughout North America & Caribbean region..

El Nino (or lack thereof)

Signs of a developing El Nino are in my opinion more bark than bite.It is my contention that any El Nino will be a weak one or overall conditions will be neutral.Indeed there are signs that indicate a possible El Nino developing but it has a long way to go.The months are steadily passing & the heart of the hurricane season is 4 - 5 months away..I just don't see how a strong enough El Nino with the capability of impacting the season in a significant way can occur at this stage.There will be little to no El Nino induced shear to inhibit formation of tropical cyclones come peak season thus I think its just a case of too little too late.

Atlantic SSTs

SSTs in the Atlantic basin east of 60w & south of 30n are quite warm for mid-April & should more or less fluctuate around normal to slightly above normal like they are now for the next several months.SSTs in that region are right on schedule &/or ahead & should be no problem for any future would be TCs trying to get going out there later on.

Waters in the Caribbean are also running above normal & will continue to warm nicely as the sun gets stronger in the sky & turns the Caribbean Sea into one big hot tub.

The SSTs closer to home is usually the focus of speculation one way or the other this time of year.Yes the waters around Florida are cool again right now but they were this way this time last year & rebounded rather quickly by May,June,etc.As a matter of fact the waters off SW Florida were cooler this time last year than they are now,obviously they must have rebounded nicely because 4 months later Hurricane Charley bottomed out quite dramatically right in that area.These SSTs will be in the mid 80's within a few months this year as well.The same can be said about the rest of Gulf of Mexico,it will be normal to above normal with in a few months.

The SE coast & mid-Atlantic SSTs are the ones that can be a little tricky because most times SSTs rebound nicely and be normal to even above normal but sometimes as seen in years past stay relativlely cool in spots.Depending on rainfall in these regions through the spring & early summer will determine if there is cooler run off shelf water.None the less if a TC moves in that region water temps should not be cool enough to completely inhibit development.

Ridges & Troughs

Ridges should be the dominant mechanism that will steer TCs in 2005.Obviously the occasional trough will come by & pick a few TCs up or at the end of a long journey a trough will eventually pick up a TC a send it north & northeast but overall ridges will be the dominant feature.Much like 2004.

Wind Shear

Just like every season some TCs make it & some don't.At some point in most seasons no matter how good things may be going for any particular developing TC,Mr.Shear rears his ugly head & rips some developing &/or established systems to shreds.Of course that scenario will take place a few times this year.

5 Areas That Could Be Threatened

1.Lesser Antilles
2.Entire Bahama Chain
3.South Florida {West Palm Beach - Key West,Key West - Fort Myers}
4.Florida Panhandle - Louisanna
5.Central America {Belize,Honduras & Nicaragua}

My Numbers For 2005 are...

12-14 Named Storms
06-08 Hurricanes
03-04 Major Hurricanes

***Edited to include disclaimer***

[cycloneye]

For being your first forecast it looks like a good one in terms of the anaylisis and on how you divided the predicting factors.Now in terms of how the season will pan out let's see on november 30th what in reallity occured.

[cyclonaut]

Thanks Cycloneye for the compliment on my forecast.I tried to get my point across without getting to technical.There are many here that really know how to write a good forecast & explain things very well.

Like you said though we'll know what really happened on Nov. 30th

[Rainband]

Where in Florida do you live?

[cyclonaut]

If you are wondering if my location in Fla had anything to do with the 5 areas that could be threatened there is no correlation.

The thinking with those areas is that High Pressure should be the dominant feature which then causes TCs track more westerly & possibly affecting the areas I mentioned.

[Rainband]

If you are wondering if my location in Fla had anything to do with the 5 areas that could be threatened there is no correlation.

The thinking with those areas is that High Pressure should be the dominant feature which then causes TCs track more westerly & possibly affecting the areas I mentioned.

I was just curious if we were neighbors