check off of hat

[HouTXmetro]

Is my calender on the right page???? It is April..huh?

Yeah, someone awaken me from this dream.

[Hyperstorm]

Interestingly, SST's underneath the feature are slightly below normal for this time of year (right around 70*). This tells me that the system is being enhanced via baroclinicity at this time (ULL to the SW is helping).

[Anonymous]

If it moves to the Southwest...waters will still be cold, but if it is developing over these waters now, even slightly warmer waters will help aid it.

[krysof]

Cold? 70 degrees is warm, but this low can't develop into anything intresting. It has no chance of being a warm core. It would have to go straight south all the way to south florida. My prediction is that this is just a stalled low, cold core, no tropical support. If a subtropical storm were to develop, I would be impressed.

[vacanechaser]

Cold? 70 degrees is warm, but this low can't develop into anything intresting. It has no chance of being a warm core. It would have to go straight south all the way to south florida. My prediction is that this is just a stalled low, cold core, no tropical support. If a subtropical storm were to develop, I would be impressed.

Not completely true... 2003, Ana formed over relativly cooler water than the 79 degree needed.. What you have here is a low forming in a warmer enviornment than to the north.. Think about what you said, not a warm core.......... It probably already is...to a degree, if there is anything at the surface... The air to the north is much colder than what is going on within the system. The processes taking place are releasing that heat near the center which is driving the temp up.... That temperature difference between the 70-76 degree water temps it is sitting over, and the process of the release of heat is much warmer than the air to the north... It is a "heat engin" that drives the tropical systems... If the center is warmer than the surrounding air, you have a warm core system which could allow this thing to thrive a bit... Same situation with Ana..

I am not saying this thing will develop into much, however the situation could allow for it to become the first named system if all the ducks are in a row..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Rainband]

After Last year anything is possible

[Derek Ortt]

I've seen tropical cyclones develop and or intensify over SST's in the 50's, if the quasi-geostrophic forcing is sufficient (Michael in 2000 and Noel in 2001)

tomorrow will be the key. If this were august, I suspect we'd be seeing advisories written on this

[HURAKAN]

LET'S GET THIS PARTY STARTED!

[krysof]

If this were to develop and get a name, many theories of late start to season would be completely crushed, then again I don't think this will develop into much, it is April 14th very early, even earlier than when Ana developed which is April 20th officially? I'm not sure. I can't wait to see this forum in action though.

I'll miss a lot though this summer. I won't be here, I'm going to France July 2nd until August 22nd.

[MWatkins]

Interestingly, SST's underneath the feature are slightly below normal for this time of year (right around 70*). This tells me that the system is being enhanced via baroclinicity at this time (ULL to the SW is helping).

Bingo...instability touched off by the mid-level low...and being in the exit region of the upper jet.

12Z QSCAT and surface obs would suggest that there is an elongated area of low pressure down there, but notice that there is no SE winds...it's a good shear zone for sure...but it doesnt appear to be a circulation...we may get another pass here across the system pretty soon...but again...looks like a tight wind-shift in a highly sheared environment...with most of the t-storm activity coming from atmospheric instability in the mid-levels rather than surface forcing alone...

Also...water temps in the are are in the very low 70's...which would suggest that any development would be subtropical...and would have to happen over a period of days.

GFS guidance suggests the cutoff low will start to wind down as the dynamics lift out in another 24-36 hours:

Pretty tight col now:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000s.gif

Opening up in a day:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024s.gif

Starting to fill in 2:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048s.gif

Hey we have something to talk about though...right?

MW

[george_r_1961]

Im impressed. The satellite signature is looking more like a tropical or subtropical system than a cold core system. Its moving over warmer SST's so we will need to watch this. I will give this a slight chance for development.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow! That is always a shock. Not bad at all for April. The question is whether NHC will bother with it.

[Derek Ortt]

One thing to note, as it moves south, it will lose much of its vorticity as part of absolute vorticity is derived from the corolis parameter. Moving from 35N to 25N isabout as unfavorable as crossing the equator from 5N to 5S (.17 corolis reduction for the eq cross vs .15 for the 35-25N). This is about 3 times more unfavorable than a more realistic eq cross moving from 2N to 2S

[Rainband]

One thing to note, as it moves south, it will lose much of its vorticity as part of absolute vorticity is derived from the corolis parameter. Moving from 35N to 25N is many times more unfavorable than a system crossing the equator from 5N to 5S (see the horizontal momentum equations for more information)

makes sense

[Derek Ortt]

I just edited the post rainband as I just ran a check through the calculator. The effects of the corolis reduction are about the same as the eq cross, but many times more favorable than a 2N to 2S eq cross

[MWatkins]

One thing to note, as it moves south, it will lose much of its vorticity as part of absolute vorticity is derived from the corolis parameter. Moving from 35N to 25N isabout as unfavorable as crossing the equator from 5N to 5S (.17 corolis reduction for the eq cross vs .15 for the 35-25N). This is about 3 times more unfavorable than a more realistic eq cross moving from 2N to 2S

It also looks like the dynamics are going to pull out...so whatever is there will probably wind down pretty quickly.

MW

[cycloneye]

Interesting that TWC is doing updates every half an hour at the top and bottom of the hour about the low with Jim Cantore.

[george_r_1961]

it should be monitored as it is very close to the east coast of the USA

Derek if it caught your attention thats good enough for me. I have gone into a low alert mode here

[george_r_1961]

Recommending a watch for a system moving AWAY from land? I agree its something to watch even though I dont think it will last long but lets not jump the gun. NWS already has heavy surf advisories and that is sufficient for now.

[kevin]

This is greatone under a new name I think.