Pacific Northwest Weather

andycottle · #4541 Postby **andycottle** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:03 pm

With exception of a little rain during the pre-dawn hours of this morning, today was mainly partly cloudy with a high of 58...though it felt some what cooler with a light breez this afternoon. -- Andy

R-Dub · #4542 Postby **R-Dub** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:24 pm

snow_wizzard · #4543 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 9:52 pm

The beat rolls on! Sea - Tac had a daily average 5.5 degrees berlow normal today. I am sure going to miss all of this cold weather when it ends next week. It sure looks like we could still see another 5 below normal days before it's over. The big question remains, will it remain mild after it warms up?

It will also be quite satisfying to see Seattle exceeed it's normal April rainfall over the next few days.

By the way...the water at 150 meters deep in the western equatorial Pacific has now turned colder than normal. That usually means that a La Nina is coming. That would be yet another piece of evidence that next winter could be good.

W13 · #4544 Postby **W13** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:14 pm

Great pics Randy! Your dog Ozzy is adorable! 8-)

snow_wizzard · #4545 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:15 pm

Andy...I have noticed that your temperatures usually seem awfully warm on days when there is sunshine. Are you absolutely sure that your thermometer or sensors are 100% protected from ambient light? I know that I have had a very diffcult time with that problem in the past.

On days with high clouds a lot of sunlight can indirectly be refracted into areas that are normally shady. Also, when it's full sunshine, reflected sunlight (even if it's hardly noticeable) can greatly effect your readings. I was just curious.

snow_wizzard · #4546 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:19 pm

R -Dub...I have a friend who has a dog named Ozzy also. Are you a fan of Ozzy Osbourne? I used to love his music, and still enjoy cranking some of his tunes every now and then!

R-Dub · #4547 Postby **R-Dub** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 10:31 pm

snow_wizzard wrote:R -Dub...I have a friend who has a dog named Ozzy also. Are you a fan of Ozzy Osbourne? I used to love his music, and still enjoy cranking some of his tunes every now and then!

Thanks Justin! And yeah Snowwizard, my dog is named after Ozzy Osbourne :lol:

It was when the there show on MTV was big, when I first got him at 8 weeks old, he just looked like a Ozzy :lol:

My other dog is named Arrow.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/golfer96_ ... pg&.src=ph

Currently 47 degrees and Mostly Cloudy.

W13 · #4548 Postby **W13** » Thu Apr 14, 2005 11:18 pm

Got clutter? :wink:

snow_wizzard · #4549 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:11 am

Wow Justin! It looks like we should be preparing for a huge flood based on that radar! :lol:

We actually have clear skies and YET ANOTHER cold night in the works. Already down to 39 at my place. I am pumped about this new GFS run. Almost no ridge in the 6 - 8 day time frame, and yet another powerful trough digs in just after day 10! If this is correct, we could be looking at the lowest April average temp since 1982. I know that was not a cold winter, but the winter of 1982 - 83 had one of the strongest El Nino's in history, and that will not happen next winter. At any rate, this is going to be a solidly colder than normal April. After this month, I will be happy with pretty much anything that mother nature throws at us, for the next few months. However, record lows are more than welcome any time of the year!

Just look at this map for day 12!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/00z ... p_288m.htm

Not very warm.

snow_wizzard · #4550 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:31 am

I do want to take this opportunity to hedge my bet just a little. While things are looking good (in my world anyway) in this latest GFS run, I am still unsure. We could still see a period of above normal temps for the final third of the month.

My best guess is that we will go somewhat above normal for Wednesday of next week through the 25th or so. The chances of a really big warm period, however, appear to be dying!

TT-SEA · #4551 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:46 am

Some observations...

The latest run of the GFS still supports near or above normal temperatures one week from now. After Monday... the rest of April should be mostly dry and much warmer. Even that trough it shows in the later periods is much weaker than what we had recently and we are still only 5 degrees below normal. We will see low to mid-60's by next Thursday and beyond. Some places will get into the 70's by next weekend.

April will average just slightly below normal. A statistical insignificance.

I need to also mention your comments about 1982. You are using a cold April to be an indicator. Yet... you say 1982 does not count because there was a big El Nino the following winter. You want a cold April to be meaningful ONLY if it was followed by a cold winter.

My point is there are WAY... WAY... WAY... WAY too many variables in the atmosphere for a warm March / cold April to definitely mean a cold winter to come. You are over-simplifying the global weather patterns.

But if you insist...

I just quickly checked historical records and found that 1978 and 1983 both had a warm March and cold April. There was 6 inches of snow at Sea-Tac in the winter of 1978-79 and only .3 of a inch in the winter of 1983-84.

I think a much more meaningful way to predict the coming winter would be to look at all of the global indexes at this point and find a similar year. Watch to see how they track during the coming months. That will lead you to a better answer than just the nuances of the day-to-day observations.

Just some thoughts.

andrewr · #4552 Postby **andrewr** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:10 am

I know the best method for figuring out what is going to happen next winter...ASK DON! He'll give us more information than we know what to do with.

snow_wizzard · #4553 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:11 am

TT...The two winters you cited were both extremely cold though! Olympia had an extreme low of minus 7 in Jan 1979, and Dec 83 was the coldest Dec of the 20th century at many locations.

We missed a huge blizzard by an eyelash in Dec 1983. I will take my chances with those kind of cold spells any day.

Incidentally, the outlying areas had much more snow in the winter of 1978 - 79 than Seattle. Dec 1983 had 15.3 inches of snow at Palmer, with a bone chilling monthly average of 30.2 degrees. I remember the Snoqualmie river was half choked with ice in the 83 cold spell. I am glad you brought up those two years! Both of those winters were COLD. I am not sure why some of those late 70s and 80s cold spells had so little snow. The point remains...the very warm March, cold April combo is a good one.

One final note...The screening criteria I used for the warm March cold April combo was bit tighter than those two years fall into. I may try to loosen the criterian and run the numbers again. Perhaps it will be more convincing to you and others. I am stoked about this year!

andycottle · #4554 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:13 am

Randy...cool pics of the clouds. Neat! I like the dark under bases and it gives them a stormy appearence. And while today wasn`t greatly convective as yesterday was...looks the clouds were still able to have heights of 15,000ft to 20,000ft.

Snow wizzard...
YES...my thermometer is in complete shade to where sunlight wont be hitting the sensor.

-- Andy

andycottle · #4555 Postby **andycottle** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:18 am

Hi all. Here`s a few pics I took earlier today while at work and also a couple pics while as school this evening. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/3348

Oh and Randy....good look`n dogs you have there!

snow_wizzard · #4556 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:24 am

Andrew...You are right about Don. I am just starting to really delve into the stuff that he uses. Truly fascinating to say the least.

TT...I would respect your opinions about any heads or tails that you can make out the 250mb (or is it 200mb) zonal wind index for the tropics. It seems to be one thing that really has relevance to our weather. I have seen some things in there that seem to give hints of what we can expect, months in advance. In fact the reading in June last year was what told me there was no chance we would have anything greater than a weak El Nino last winter. At the time I found that, many were saying it would be stronger....

Don seems to think that the PDO is key to us getting a big winter. I agree, it would help, but the 1930s had some ultra wicked winters when the PDO was positive. I wonder if anyone will ever know why the 1930s were so whacked out. By far the most unexplainable decade of the 20th century!

snow_wizzard · #4557 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 1:49 am

TT...Although you may not admit it's possible, I will bet that you will someday see there is something to what I have been saying about the past being the key to predicting the future. There are just some things that are likely to lead one way more than the other. I would hope that you will at least look at it as being a peice of the puzzle. There are so many good clues, if you have an open mind. I have found sequences that are up 90% certain to lead to a certain type of weather.

TT-SEA · #4558 Postby **TT-SEA** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 10:58 am

Snow_Wizzard... I am sure there is some correlation between the past and the present but it is far from a guarantee. As you know... global weather patterns are very complicated and difficult to predict.

Here is something to check out. This is a list of years with the warmest April 1-10 on record in Minneapolis. There is a definite connection between the weather patterns in the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. When we are cold they are usually warm and vice versa. Notice 2005 is second on the list. By using this data in conjunction with Seattle's data you are not only looking at our local weather but a general pattern over North America.

1) 1910
2) 2005
3) 1925
4) 1991
5) 1921
6) 1930
7) 1988
8) 1955
9) 1999
10) 1912

Also remember... as much as you would like to ignore it... global warming is happening and might give us different results than would be expected in the past. I caution you to consider this when looking at data from 30-100 years ago.

EDIT: See subsequent posts. My research became much more refined than looking at temperatures in one location for just 10 days. That DOES NOT define a general pattern.The tool Don Sutherland uses is much more comprehensive for looking at the bigger picture.

AnthonyC · #4559 Postby **AnthonyC** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:00 am

I don't know about you people, but I'm ready for some sun and warmer weather! Waking up to clouds and cool temperatures is getting old!

Viewing latest satellite images, not impressed with this next system. It hasn't developed too much overnight, and cloud tops aren't too cold. The surface low looks fairly weak...at least to what computer models were predicting...and it's a small, compact system. Once this system moves through tomorrow...it's SUN AND WARMER weather!!

The extended features a pattern shift...but how extreme will it be? The GFS is the weakest...while the Canadian models are the most extreme. Since the GFS has a hard time with pattern changes, I'll believe the Canadian. If forecasts are correct, some places will be above 70F by next Friday.

Anthony

W13 · #4560 Postby **W13** » Fri Apr 15, 2005 11:28 am

Looks like Vancouver Island and the surrounding areas are getting hit by some strong winds today from the system that is dumping rain on us:

Wind warning for
west Vancouver Island - coastal sections continued

Southeast winds of 50 to 70 km/h over west Vancouver Island coastal
sections, east Vancouver Island and Sunshine Coast will ease Saturday
morning.

This is a warning that damaging winds are imminent or occurring in
These regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated
statements.

An intense low and associated frontal system approaching the coast has spread strong southeast winds of 50 to 70 km/h over coastal sections of west Vancouver Island, east Vancouver Island and Sunshine Coast this morning. Strong winds over southern coastal regions will ease Saturday morning with the passage of the front.

Strong southeast winds have eased below warning criteria over central coast - coastal sections.

Please refer to the latest public forecasts for further details.

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