At least he/she's honest!!!

[PurdueWx80]

This is one hilarious forecast discussion from the Des Moines NWS office:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS REALLY GETTING MESSY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPPING FASTER
THAN THE MARKET. IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IT WILL RAIN SOMEWHERE IN IA
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS AWFUL.
MODEL COMPARISONS ARE AWFUL. I THINK THERE WAS MORE DAMAGE CONTROL
PUT INTO THIS FORECAST THAN THERE WAS METEOROLOGICAL THEORY. BUT THE
SHOW MUST GO ON AND THIS WILL SOON BECOME THE MIDNIGHT FORECASTER/S
NIGHTMARE. IN THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS
CONTINUE. WEAK CDFNT IS NOW APPROACHING EXTREME NW IA. STILL BELIEVE
THIS FEATURE WILL EASE INTO N IA LATER TONIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT A BIT MORE CONVECTION COULD FORM
ALONG THE FRONT THAN ANTICIPATED AND DRIVE IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS NOW HAS FLIPPED WITH THE ETA AND BRINGS IT FURTHER SOUTH AND
PERSISTS IT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL HAVE INCREASE PCPN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT NW AND CENTRAL AND NORTH SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE A BIT
BETTER SATURDAY BUT STILL FAIRLY WEAK WITH CAPES AOB 600J/KG.
THETA-E RIDGE DOES POKE NE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHILE
WE DO GET SOME WEAK RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN WEAK CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT
AND DAY SATURDAY AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SUNDAY MAY
HAVE THE BEST BET TO BE DRY OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IF THE WEAK FRONT
DOES INDEED WASH OUT OR LIFT NORTH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER
NORTH SATURDAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT
TEMPS WITH WARMEST MOS SUNDAY WITH MORE SUN AND TOASTY H850 TEMPS.
THINGS START TO GET REAL FUZZY BY MONDAY AS MODELS ARE INSISTENT IN
BRINGING A WEAK SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN
HINTED AT THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH GIVEN INSTABILITY OVER US BY
MONDAY HAVE OPTED TO ADD LOW POPS. IF THIS FEATURE IS FOR REAL...
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POTENTIAL MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT MORE THAN
FORECAST. HOWEVER MIXING POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH MONDAY SO WILL
STILL HEDGE TO THE WARMER SIDE. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS A CRAP
SHOOT. MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE FRONT THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INTO IA TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGER TIL FRIDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE OPTED NEAR A DGEX SOLUTION THOUGH FEEL THE FRONT MAY
SLIDE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. SO HAVE BEGUN TO TREND TEMPS UPWARD. HARD
TO PINPOINT BEST TIME PERIOD FOR POPS SO WENT WITH THE WHITEWASH
APPROACH. GIVEN EXPECTED SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT DUE TO
THE INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW...THIS BOUNDARY COULD
INDEED AFFECT THE CWA FOR 3 OR 4 DAYS. 12Z GFS REALLY SETTING UP A
CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR THURS/FRIDAY. GOOD THING IS IT
WONT END UP EXACTLY HOW THE GFS DEPICTS AND THE SOLUTION WILL CHANGE
SEVERAL TIMES BEFORE NOW AND THEN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

$$

JAW

[Aquawind]

LOL... Amazing confusion..

Paul

[wx247]

The sad thing is that it is pretty much the truth. This next 7-10 period is looking so messy and unpredictable. Where the front ends up will make a huge difference in the weather for the Plains.

[PurdueWx80]

It's nice to see you back Garret (one t or two?).

Yeah, next week looks pretty difficult, and the GFS is sucking in the pattern transition department. I think next week could be very stormy and wet somewhere in the Midwest/Plains. Like you said, it just depends on where the front ends up.

[wx247]

Two t's thank you. I am always here... just sometimes more than others. I divide my time between J Squared and here.

[Shoshana]

That's funny, and strange. Is that confusion spreading to Central Texas? And why a "Special Weather Statement" to say it might be messy next week ... or might not?

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-160900-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
935 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2005

...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT COMING FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG AND CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OR GUSTY WINDS.
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

'shana

[NWIASpotter]

I love the end of that discussion where he states that the GFS will change easily and not have to worry there!! THat is a classic statement from DMX, FSD every once in awhile will end up saying something like that. That is why those two offices work so good together!!

By the way, I believe that was Jeff Wallenfang, one of the senior forecasters.

[AirmaN]

Is that for real?!