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Snow_Wizzard...
Not sure what all this means yet but check out this web site for a discussion on the latest El Nino situation. It appears that we may head back into a El Nino situation again next winter.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
In fact... the whole El Nino situation resembles the late 1970's very closely. That period was characterized by a consistent weak El Nino.
I see many similarities to 1978 so far. Locally and globally.
Interestingly... Southern California was slammed that spring by torrential rain.
If we follow 1978... we should have a warm and slightly wetter than normal summer. The winter of 1978-79 was drier and slightly cooler than normal with a couple lowland snow events. That winter was very cold in the Midwest so I am thinking an arctic high was parked over Montana. The arctic air could have leaked westward on occasion.
I need to look at other indexes to be sure of the comparison between 1978 and 2005.
Not sure what all this means yet but check out this web site for a discussion on the latest El Nino situation. It appears that we may head back into a El Nino situation again next winter.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
In fact... the whole El Nino situation resembles the late 1970's very closely. That period was characterized by a consistent weak El Nino.
I see many similarities to 1978 so far. Locally and globally.
Interestingly... Southern California was slammed that spring by torrential rain.
If we follow 1978... we should have a warm and slightly wetter than normal summer. The winter of 1978-79 was drier and slightly cooler than normal with a couple lowland snow events. That winter was very cold in the Midwest so I am thinking an arctic high was parked over Montana. The arctic air could have leaked westward on occasion.
I need to look at other indexes to be sure of the comparison between 1978 and 2005.
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Another year to look at is 1953.
It would appear similar on the surface (including a wild swinging SOI) but the results are VERY different.
The summer of 1953 was cool in the PNW (as opposed to warm in 1978)
The summer of 1953 had normal precipitation (much like 1978)
The winter of 1953-54 was charcterized by amazing WARMTH in the Midwest and normal temperatures in Seattle. That means the global pattern was very different than 1978-79. No arctic high parked in Montana.
The winter of 1953-54 was VERY wet in the PNW (as opposed to very dry in 1978-79). We did have one LARGE lowland snow event in January of 1954. But the winter was likely dominated by Pineapple Express type events and I hate to use one single snow event for comparison. That could happen just be chance.
Anyways... the results were VERY different with a similar set of circumstances to this year.
It is VERY tough to determine which variable dominates the pattern. Any minor change and the results are totally different!!
That is why global weather patterns are SOOOOOOO tough to predict.
It would appear similar on the surface (including a wild swinging SOI) but the results are VERY different.
The summer of 1953 was cool in the PNW (as opposed to warm in 1978)
The summer of 1953 had normal precipitation (much like 1978)
The winter of 1953-54 was charcterized by amazing WARMTH in the Midwest and normal temperatures in Seattle. That means the global pattern was very different than 1978-79. No arctic high parked in Montana.
The winter of 1953-54 was VERY wet in the PNW (as opposed to very dry in 1978-79). We did have one LARGE lowland snow event in January of 1954. But the winter was likely dominated by Pineapple Express type events and I hate to use one single snow event for comparison. That could happen just be chance.
Anyways... the results were VERY different with a similar set of circumstances to this year.
It is VERY tough to determine which variable dominates the pattern. Any minor change and the results are totally different!!
That is why global weather patterns are SOOOOOOO tough to predict.
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Good afternoon all. Light rain is currently falling here and temp os 46 degrees with 88% humidity and baro steady at 29.88.
Still looking like a cool and showery weekend with maybe a good CZ firing up on sunday to give us an isolated t-storm or two. About mid-week next week looks a warm up and much nice weather headed our way.
-- Andy
Still looking like a cool and showery weekend with maybe a good CZ firing up on sunday to give us an isolated t-storm or two. About mid-week next week looks a warm up and much nice weather headed our way.
-- Andy
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TT one thing to look at is that for the first time in nearly 30 years all 3 of the PNA, AO, and NAO averaged below normal this winter. That was the first time since 1975 or so if i can remember right... I need to ask snowwizzard about the exact year again but to me, that sounds like a pretty good piece of evidence by itself that we could be entering a colder phase of winters. That would also follow.. What is your opinion on that? Oh and this still puts us on schedual for the 30 year pattern thing where we go from warm to cold phase... 1945-1975 was a cold phase... 1975-2005 was a warm phase... now we could be headed back towards cold... just want to see what you think about it... if you think its total crap or if it's something to consider happening...
i would love some opinions and i'm sure snow wizz would too.

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I would be surprised if the PDO followed such a perfect script. Meaning... it switches exactly every 30 years. I believe if you look back prior to 1945 it did not follow such a rigid pattern.
I also believe that global warming has changed the weather patterns as we have know them since the 1800's. I am not concerned here about the cause of global warming. But it is definitely happening. Many of the warmest years in the recorded history of the Earth have occurred since 1990.
That is absolutely amazing and CANNOT be ignored.
That has to have a profound impact on weather patterns. We know that sea levels are rising and the ice caps and glaciers are melting at an increasingly fast pace. This may well be a natural cycle or it could be caused by humans. Either way it is happening and its likely to continue for our lifetimes.
That is not to say that cold, harsh winters are out of the question. I have read that global warming is characterized by more dramatic weather. Its just that the "normal" cycles may now be disrupted.
So to answer your question... I am not at all sure that the PDO will switch to a persistent cold phase this year. Also... it may go into a modified cold phase that does not have the same effects as the cold phases in the past.
Either way... the results will likely be different.
To ignore the global climate changes and just assume the past will repeat itself is a big mistake.
I also believe that global warming has changed the weather patterns as we have know them since the 1800's. I am not concerned here about the cause of global warming. But it is definitely happening. Many of the warmest years in the recorded history of the Earth have occurred since 1990.
That is absolutely amazing and CANNOT be ignored.
That has to have a profound impact on weather patterns. We know that sea levels are rising and the ice caps and glaciers are melting at an increasingly fast pace. This may well be a natural cycle or it could be caused by humans. Either way it is happening and its likely to continue for our lifetimes.
That is not to say that cold, harsh winters are out of the question. I have read that global warming is characterized by more dramatic weather. Its just that the "normal" cycles may now be disrupted.
So to answer your question... I am not at all sure that the PDO will switch to a persistent cold phase this year. Also... it may go into a modified cold phase that does not have the same effects as the cold phases in the past.
Either way... the results will likely be different.
To ignore the global climate changes and just assume the past will repeat itself is a big mistake.
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Snow_Wizzard--
You NEED to use this tool...
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html
It is a MUCH better way to determine overall patterns. I am just starting to use it now and I love it.
It is way more effective than just looking at the records around Puget Sound.
IMPORTANT:
I have been looking at other years where April was below normal in the Seattle area and have found that there is almost NO correlation between our weather here and the rest of the country in those months.
What does that mean???
There are MANY ways to achieve an end result. A cold April in Seattle can happen with many global patterns and we need to find the one that matches most closely. Just the fact that Seattle had a warm March and a cold April is NOT ENOUGH information to determine the overall global pattern
This is becoming painfully obvious to me as I look at various years. Without this tool you are going to be missing a HUGE piece of the puzzle.
That being said... I am having a tough time finding a temperature pattern like we have seen in March and April of 2005 (across the enitre country) in any other year.
I am still searching!!
Don't forget to check this out as well...
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
You NEED to use this tool...
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/USclimate/USclimdivs.html
It is a MUCH better way to determine overall patterns. I am just starting to use it now and I love it.
It is way more effective than just looking at the records around Puget Sound.
IMPORTANT:
I have been looking at other years where April was below normal in the Seattle area and have found that there is almost NO correlation between our weather here and the rest of the country in those months.
What does that mean???
There are MANY ways to achieve an end result. A cold April in Seattle can happen with many global patterns and we need to find the one that matches most closely. Just the fact that Seattle had a warm March and a cold April is NOT ENOUGH information to determine the overall global pattern
This is becoming painfully obvious to me as I look at various years. Without this tool you are going to be missing a HUGE piece of the puzzle.
That being said... I am having a tough time finding a temperature pattern like we have seen in March and April of 2005 (across the enitre country) in any other year.
I am still searching!!
Don't forget to check this out as well...
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
Last edited by TT-SEA on Fri Apr 15, 2005 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I came at this a different way... I took an EXTREMELY unusual event for this winter and used that as a basis for comparison.
That rare event was the AMAZING rainfall in Southern California. The last time something like this happened was in the winter of 1940-41. The rainfall down there this winter was so amazing and consistent that it has to be used when determining comparable years.
Looking at the overall pattern for that spring... it is close. January and March are almost exact. February is a little different but not extreme because most of the country was close to normal that year. April is close EXCEPT for the Pacific Northwest. But April of 2005 may be just a slight variation of the pattern in this corner of the country. The Midwest had a very warm April in 1941 and they are having a very warm April in 2005.
Across the country... and using a long-term EXCEPTIONAL event such as the flooding rains in Southern California... I think we might have a close match with 1941.
Again... as it seems every year that I look at for comparison... the summer of 1941 was wetter than normal in the PNW (and cooler than normal). The only excpetion was one week in July of 1941 that got incredibly hot... like 101 degrees in Palmer!! The following winter had almost no snow in Seattle with normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the region.
Snow_Wizzard... I hope you have time to read all my posts for the day. If you put them together... I have written quite an essay on climate research!!
That rare event was the AMAZING rainfall in Southern California. The last time something like this happened was in the winter of 1940-41. The rainfall down there this winter was so amazing and consistent that it has to be used when determining comparable years.
Looking at the overall pattern for that spring... it is close. January and March are almost exact. February is a little different but not extreme because most of the country was close to normal that year. April is close EXCEPT for the Pacific Northwest. But April of 2005 may be just a slight variation of the pattern in this corner of the country. The Midwest had a very warm April in 1941 and they are having a very warm April in 2005.
Across the country... and using a long-term EXCEPTIONAL event such as the flooding rains in Southern California... I think we might have a close match with 1941.
Again... as it seems every year that I look at for comparison... the summer of 1941 was wetter than normal in the PNW (and cooler than normal). The only excpetion was one week in July of 1941 that got incredibly hot... like 101 degrees in Palmer!! The following winter had almost no snow in Seattle with normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the region.
Snow_Wizzard... I hope you have time to read all my posts for the day. If you put them together... I have written quite an essay on climate research!!
Last edited by TT-SEA on Fri Apr 15, 2005 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TT you are looking at overall global pattern similarities from the past 100 years... Of course the global pattern is never exactly identical or even rarely similar across the entire globe... I think looking at one region and comparing that pattern from past years is also a good way to look at it... When doing this too you have to look at what the indexes were like in those years were... This post probably didn't make sense i'm bad at wording thing.
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Brennan... using the link that Don sent us I have learned that looking at just one location's data is completely misleading.
A warm March followed by a cold April in Seattle (or even all of Western Washington) seems to be caused by a different global pattern every time.
Just looking at Seattle data you may think all of those years are basically the same. But they are totally different.
You need to find a similar OVERALL pattern. Not just specific to Western Washington. This will lead you closer to an answer about next winter.
1941 is a close match across the country. It is also a good match in Seattle with the exception of April temperatures that ended up slightly above normal. We even had a bone-dry February that year.
I think we should look at 1941 more closely.
Did you see my comments on the PDO shift??
Snow_Wizzard... do you have rainfall and temperature data for 1890? I want to know what kind of summer we had that year and what the following winter was like.
A warm March followed by a cold April in Seattle (or even all of Western Washington) seems to be caused by a different global pattern every time.
Just looking at Seattle data you may think all of those years are basically the same. But they are totally different.
You need to find a similar OVERALL pattern. Not just specific to Western Washington. This will lead you closer to an answer about next winter.
1941 is a close match across the country. It is also a good match in Seattle with the exception of April temperatures that ended up slightly above normal. We even had a bone-dry February that year.
I think we should look at 1941 more closely.
Did you see my comments on the PDO shift??
Snow_Wizzard... do you have rainfall and temperature data for 1890? I want to know what kind of summer we had that year and what the following winter was like.
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Snow_Wizzard... forget looking up 1890.
I found a site with historical data...
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/impacts/pnw_clim_rev.html
1890 does not match very well.
Still... 1941 looks close. There was a relatively weak El Nino that year. Southern California got blasted without a strong El Nino. Seattle had a dramatic dry spell in February.
Plus the overall pattern across the country was strikingly similar to this spring as mentioned above.
I found a site with historical data...
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/impacts/pnw_clim_rev.html
1890 does not match very well.
Still... 1941 looks close. There was a relatively weak El Nino that year. Southern California got blasted without a strong El Nino. Seattle had a dramatic dry spell in February.
Plus the overall pattern across the country was strikingly similar to this spring as mentioned above.
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We're getting the rainshadow in Mukilteo today...we had one bout of steady rain that latest about an hour, but since then it's been fairly dry. Still, the warm front hasn't been strong...only light to moderate rain has been falling around the Puget Sound.
A surface low strengthens tonight and curves up into the Queen Charlottes. Expect gale force winds along the north WA coast and north interior...but nothing significant. I wouldn't be surprised if small craft winds never materialize over the Puget Sound...this type of situation brings VERY LITTLE wind to the main metro area. The cold front passes through around midday Saturday bringing another bout of steady rain...then a weak upper level trough moves in over Western Washington. The airmass isn't overly unstable so no thunderstorms/ice pellet showers this time around. But you can't rule out the possibility if an active PSCZ forms.
After that, ALL models agree some sort of high pressure system will develop off the west coast. But how strong will it be? The GFS insists on a weaker solution, while other models strengthen the ridge throughout the week. The GFS continues to show a shortwave moving over the ridge on Wednesday, but with 500 mb heights so high I find it hard to believe.
Anthony
A surface low strengthens tonight and curves up into the Queen Charlottes. Expect gale force winds along the north WA coast and north interior...but nothing significant. I wouldn't be surprised if small craft winds never materialize over the Puget Sound...this type of situation brings VERY LITTLE wind to the main metro area. The cold front passes through around midday Saturday bringing another bout of steady rain...then a weak upper level trough moves in over Western Washington. The airmass isn't overly unstable so no thunderstorms/ice pellet showers this time around. But you can't rule out the possibility if an active PSCZ forms.
After that, ALL models agree some sort of high pressure system will develop off the west coast. But how strong will it be? The GFS insists on a weaker solution, while other models strengthen the ridge throughout the week. The GFS continues to show a shortwave moving over the ridge on Wednesday, but with 500 mb heights so high I find it hard to believe.
Anthony
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Don't know Andy.
O.K... our friend Don has pointed out on another thread that we are also running similar to 1993. Again... April is not perfect but there are some other great similarities.
Like a VERY dry February in Seattle.
Torrential rains and flooding in Southern California. Less than this year which was only matched by 1940-41. But I was down there that winter and the flooding was pretty amazing.
Similar El Nino cycle and other indexes. The El Nino that winter was weak but Southern California still got hammered. That is a great indicator of a special type of global pattern very much like this winter.
Of course the summer of 1993 averaged cooler and wetter than normal but was dry in August and September. The winter of 1993-94 featured drier and warmer than normal weather with very little lowland snow.
The best analogs I can find to this year are 1941 and 1993.
Both featured fairly normal summers (except the heat wave in the middle of July 1941) with healthy amounts of rain.
Both featured fairly dry winters with near or slightly above temperatures and very little lowland snow.
Snow_Wizzard... please don't get all excited about 2 larger snow events in Palmer in the winter of 1993-94. Most lowland locations had about 2 inches of snow for the whole winter. Bellingham had .7 of an inch for the entire winter of 1993-94!!! Even the mountains had WAY below normal snowfall that winter. It was not good overall.
This is based on substantial research and not just looking at the current weather in Seattle for comparison.
I have believe the odds are quite low for a cold, snowy winter in 2005-06 here in Western Washington.
O.K... our friend Don has pointed out on another thread that we are also running similar to 1993. Again... April is not perfect but there are some other great similarities.
Like a VERY dry February in Seattle.
Torrential rains and flooding in Southern California. Less than this year which was only matched by 1940-41. But I was down there that winter and the flooding was pretty amazing.
Similar El Nino cycle and other indexes. The El Nino that winter was weak but Southern California still got hammered. That is a great indicator of a special type of global pattern very much like this winter.
Of course the summer of 1993 averaged cooler and wetter than normal but was dry in August and September. The winter of 1993-94 featured drier and warmer than normal weather with very little lowland snow.
The best analogs I can find to this year are 1941 and 1993.
Both featured fairly normal summers (except the heat wave in the middle of July 1941) with healthy amounts of rain.
Both featured fairly dry winters with near or slightly above temperatures and very little lowland snow.
Snow_Wizzard... please don't get all excited about 2 larger snow events in Palmer in the winter of 1993-94. Most lowland locations had about 2 inches of snow for the whole winter. Bellingham had .7 of an inch for the entire winter of 1993-94!!! Even the mountains had WAY below normal snowfall that winter. It was not good overall.
This is based on substantial research and not just looking at the current weather in Seattle for comparison.
I have believe the odds are quite low for a cold, snowy winter in 2005-06 here in Western Washington.
Last edited by TT-SEA on Fri Apr 15, 2005 8:45 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Let's face it, the words "cold" and "snowy" don't go with Seattle. Even the "coldest" and "snowiest" seasons are nothing compared to other parts of the country. What do you consider "cold and snowy" for Seattle standards? One, two arctic outbreaks in a season? More than 10 inches of snow in downtown Seattle? The only "cold" and "snowy" season I can think of was 1996-1997.
Anthony
Anthony
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Tim and all. I was just able to find a map with lapse rate model, but if any of you know of any other site....please pass them along to me.
-- Andy
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... newfr.html
-- Andy
http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/o ... newfr.html
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After a cool and showery weekend, latest GFS model has a some what strong ridge of high pressure over our region for the 19th through about the 25...in which the days should be mostly sunny and temps in the lower to mid 60`s as 500MB heights rise up to around 570DM. However, GFS wants to throw a few spotty sprinkles over the cascades during the day Wednesday. Looks like a return to more cooler, showery weather come the the following Monday/Tuesday time frame as a rather deep trough swings through our area that has surface 500MB heights of 528DM and 850MB temp around -3C.
-- Andy
-- Andy
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Yes... some very nice weather is on the way.
Maybe now that we have some better climate research tools at our disposal... Snow_Wizzard can stop obsessing about the specific departure from normal every single day at Sea-Tac.
It seems a little silly to think that the weather at one precise location in the month of April can definitely determine the weather at that location nine months later!!
We have to look at the big picture people!!
The global pattern very closely resembles 1941 and 1993. Who cares what the details at Sea-Tac mean for our winter next year. Its quite random on a day-to-day basis.
Lets cheer for sunshine and warm weather to return!!!
Maybe now that we have some better climate research tools at our disposal... Snow_Wizzard can stop obsessing about the specific departure from normal every single day at Sea-Tac.

It seems a little silly to think that the weather at one precise location in the month of April can definitely determine the weather at that location nine months later!!
We have to look at the big picture people!!
The global pattern very closely resembles 1941 and 1993. Who cares what the details at Sea-Tac mean for our winter next year. Its quite random on a day-to-day basis.
Lets cheer for sunshine and warm weather to return!!!
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Well I am over in Moses Lake, left my house yesterday at around 2:00PM thinking I could beat traffic...........NOPE! HORRIBLE. You couldn't pay me enough to fight that garbage everyday!!! I still can't understand why people that live in the Pac Northwest can't figure out how to drive in the rain.
Took me 1.5hrs to get from my house, to I-90! Its just stupid, guess we native Washingtonions couldn't keep this area a secret for ever though
TOO MANY PEOPLE and NOT ENOUGH ROADS!!!
Okay I am done venting
Anyway it was a steady rain from my house to about North Bend where it lightened up to just sprinkles. By the time I got to Cle Elm it was dry.
Currently at Moses Lake its Partly Cloudy with a temp of 44 degrees at 6:00AM
One thing I will comment on is I DO think next winter will be NORMAL, meaning one or two arctic blasts, a few wind storms, and lots of rain. Should be more exciting then this last winter.


Okay I am done venting

Anyway it was a steady rain from my house to about North Bend where it lightened up to just sprinkles. By the time I got to Cle Elm it was dry.
Currently at Moses Lake its Partly Cloudy with a temp of 44 degrees at 6:00AM
One thing I will comment on is I DO think next winter will be NORMAL, meaning one or two arctic blasts, a few wind storms, and lots of rain. Should be more exciting then this last winter.
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