2005 Hurricane Season starting to piece together...

[Anonymous]

Ok, as far as many can see, Hurricane Season 2005 appears to be geared up for:::

*Mostly neutral conditions, possibilty for a weak El Nino though.

*Above normal SST's, "only to get warmer" says Stacy Stewart. This could also aid systems, and as Stacy Stewart also said that we may see some increase in the waves east of the Lesser Antillies to where they get into the Western Caribbean and may "already have a kick", where the early season can be rather active.

*Wave activity is already occuring, and it looks to be getting only stronger into the season.

*From what I have read on the internet, heard from friends and certain people, it appears the ridge will build like 2004, if not stronger.

Bottom line is, this season looks to be the potential sibling of the 2004 Hurricane Season.

Also, the United States has lucked out from three potential Category 5 hits on the US coast over the last three seasons:

2002: Isidore ----Izzy could have been (And probably would have been) and Category 5 for Louisiana or Texas if not for high pressure dipping south enough to push it into the Yucatan. Isidore had almost no shear, and had extremely warm water as well as dynamic outflow:::

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 21.9N 86.2W 110 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.9N 87.0W 120 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.9N 88.0W 125 KTS
36HR VT 23/0600Z 21.9N 89.2W 125 KTS
48HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 90.3W 125 KTS
72HR VT 24/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 130 KTS




2004: Charley ----We all know how Charley's story goes. Definite Category 5 had it had another 4 hours our water. Charley was 6 mph away from Category 5...that's too close.

2004: Frances ----Category 5 for Florida no doubt. Thankfully, for the United States, sterring currents collapsed, and Hurricane Frances sat in front of shear that would have had little impact had she kept moving.

If Isidore, Charley, and Frances came so darn close...what about Bret...or Emily...or Harvey...or Jose? Time will tell, being prepared is all a person can do.

[depotoo]

all i can do is hope and pray not mike - last year was more than enough for me here!

[Anonymous]

Yep. Indeed. However, if you look back into the 1940's-type pattern we are in, the United States had many major hurricanes.

This one may hit close to home:

People in West Palm Beach, FL woke up on August 26, 1949 with a newly upgraded Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph off the coast.

When they woke up the next morning, the hurricane had winds of 150 mph, a pressure of 954 mb, and made landfall near Riviera Beach, FL.

Here is the point on the coast where sustained winds were 150 mph gusting to 180 mph:


Today, a storm like that would be devestaing, especially given the fact that the storm increased from 80 mph to 150 mph in 24 hours.

With the active period we are in now, people are in these areas now...and they must be prepared.

[depotoo]

yes they are very populated and last year watching everyones reaction and the counties reaction before jeanne came ashore is terrifying. if that had happened with jeanne many would have been killed. the county waited until sat. morning to even issue evacuation orders! and after frances most said i am not leaving again - well they had not stayed and felt what it was like even several miles inland to know what could have happened if jeanne had stayed around as long as frances did or if she had come in just 15-20 miles further south.

[Derek Ortt]

Floyd,

Isidore had less chance of hitting as a cat 5 than Iraq had of winning the war.

NHC released a 5 day forecast of Isidore that they made as a sample. Isidore was expected to collapse upon approach to the northern Gulf Coast due to increasing wind shear. The 5 day they released had it weakening to 90KT while about 150 miles south of central Louisiana. The rumors of a cat 5 for Louisiana were and still are baseless

[canegrl04]

I heard it said more than once by scientists last season that we are heading into a very active period for hurricane season,reminecent of the '50s and '60s after a relatively quiet period of the '70s -'90s

[Derek Ortt]

and Frances had even less chance of being a cat 5 than did isidore. Had it not have slowed, it would have encountered greater shear. Now, had it not slowed, New Orleans likely would have been hit by a category two storm, that I can concede. But Florida got about as strong of a storm out of Frances as it could have. Remember, upon approaching Florida, the winds intensified from 85 to 95kT over the Gulfstream, though weakened to 90KT upon landfall

[Scorpion]

IMO Jeanne had alot more chance to become a Cat 5 than Frances That is one we got really lucky with.

[Anonymous]

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurrica ... izarre.htm

Mike Black of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division, says:

He still marvels at Isidore's potential. Forecasters were relatively certain weak steering winds that allowed Isidore to move in a loop over land would eventually guide the storm toward the USA.

And, there was nothing to stop the storm from intensifying. "Isidore had all the energy it needed," Black says.

"Fifty miles of difference with that loop over water instead of land and there's no doubt in my mind that Isidore would have been a Category 5 hurricane and a major disaster for the USA."

And Derek, everybody is entitled to an opinion...and I think Frances could have been, however Isidore would have been moving faster, and not had spent two wasted days over the Yucatan, so it may have hit before the shear would have gotten to it.

[depotoo]

my point derek is that what if? the average person out there is making their decisions on past experience or non experience rather than all the complexities of the issues. what if that cat 3 such as charley were headed our way or north or south of us and suddenly intensified to a 5 and veered straight for us? so many would be caught and too late.

[vacanechaser]

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2002/2002-09-26-isidore-bizarre.htm

Mike Black of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division, says:

He still marvels at Isidore's potential. Forecasters were relatively certain weak steering winds that allowed Isidore to move in a loop over land would eventually guide the storm toward the USA.

And, there was nothing to stop the storm from intensifying. "Isidore had all the energy it needed," Black says.

"Fifty miles of difference with that loop over water instead of land and there's no doubt in my mind that Isidore would have been a Category 5 hurricane and a major disaster for the USA."

And Derek, everybody is entitled to an opinion...and I think Frances could have been, however Isidore would have been moving faster, and not had spent two wasted days over the Yucatan, so it may have hit before the shear would have gotten to it.

Good job floydbuster.. Nice work on finding that.. I think I would listen to Mike Black first... My only thing with Isidore was I was thinking it may have been to large in the Gulf to be too strong.. Larger systems in the Gulf always seem to find dry air or something to disrupt the mechanics...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

I have to disagree with Michael Black here as data indicated that in the 12 hours before landfall, shear increased to about 20KT. I am working on a paper that will indicate this is extremely unfavorable for a major hurricane and almost always leads to significant weakening of the system (10-15mb pressure rise during that 12 hour period). Prior to that 12 hour time period, there would have been eye wall replacements.

Yes, Jeanne was the one that we did get a free pass from (Charley may have actually been a marginal 5 just based upon the data from Cuba indicating that the FL reduction factor was 105%). That eye wall replacement made the storm larger and not quite as intense, resulting in the beta effect being able to drag the storm just enough north to spare W Palm from the southern eye wall, and preventing the hurricane from becoming at least a category 4 hurricane. I remember that mroning, I was conceding that the best case scenario would have been a repeat of the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NHC_TCD_final.txt

Here is one of the 5 days for Hurricane Isidore. Notice the obvious collapse of the storm as it nears Louisiana. This was never a threat to be even a landfalling category 4 hurricane. Yes, it had potential, just as Lili did. But we must remember that the northern Gulf cannot support systems above marginal cat 3 due to the very shallow depth of the warm water

[Anonymous]

Whatever. I would go by NOAA first though...but that is my opinion.

[Derek Ortt]

and NOAA stated, but then again, one who wants to see landfalling cat 5's selectively chooses), that isidore would be a cat 2. Read the forecast and quit making yourself look foolish by saying NOAA said one thing, when they are saying something totally different.

Also, thank God you are not reviewing my paper as you'll hate the results I have found

[Anonymous]

Hostility. Jeez...I am not making my self look foolish. You have your opinions I have mine. You said Ivan was 130 kt off the coast of Alabama...when it was clear it was only 115 kt, yet, it was your opinion and I respect it.

I don't like Category 5 landfalls anymore than the other guy, yet Isidore was on his way to becoming Gilbert in the Gulf, and I think it would have been very hard to rapidly weakening given the large circulation, and I do not think it would have gotten below 145 mph. But...that is my opinion.

Also, remember...the 5 day extension would have been after two days over the Yucatan, however, if you speed Isidore up by two days (AKA...NO TURN INTO YUCATAN) he may have reached the coast before the shear.

[vacanechaser]

Dont worry about it Floyd... it was there in B&W for everyone to read... Sounds like someone has a chip on his shoulders...

listen ,lets just see who replaces Miles at NHC... I bet I can tell who it wont be...

[Anonymous]

Now wait...I respect Derek Orrt. But, I think people should be able to have their opinions without being bashed.

[vacanechaser]

but its like you said, you have an opinion, he has his, i have mine and i will just leave it at that.. no bashing going on from me... but for him to call you foolish, i think thats the bashing... there is just no room for that here... sorry, but thats My Opinion..

[Anonymous]

Yea...