Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #4641 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:13 pm

Ohhhh... ridging is coming!! I predict most places in the 70's next weekend. You have watched me do this three times now and still doubt?

Check out the relicable ECMWF that always picks up pattern changes better than the GFS.

WOW. Still time to get on board.

andycottle · #4642 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:13 pm

Hi Guys! After a pretty darn wet morning, I recieved .91" of rain...which majorty of that rain occured during the pre-dawn hours and into about 8a.m this morning. From early afternoon onward, skie became partly cloudy, and that is our current weather right now. My temp is at 55, after having a high of 59.

-- Andy

TT-SEA · #4643 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:15 pm

Andy... almost 60 degrees today!!

Check out that ECMWF for next weekend. That is OFFSHORE flow and strong April sunshine.

Somebody on the Eastside may touch that wonderful 80 degree mark in one week!!

TT-SEA · #4644 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:22 pm

Also... it looks like Sea-Tac has averaged ABOVE normal for TODAY.

Not sure yet... but I see a high of 55 and a low of 48.

That is an average of 51.5 and above normal today means WAY above normal next weekend.

AnthonyC · #4645 Postby **AnthonyC** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:30 pm

A nice day today...could be warmer, but I'll take the sunshine! I'm ready for some warmer weather this week.

A breezy afternoon...a few gusts exceeded 30 mph. We had about an inch of rainfall this morning, but it cleared around 11am and has been sunny since. I'm not sure if I'd call this a rainy or partly cloudy day...just for my own statistics.

As for next week, I have to agree with TT-SEA...though I don't think anyone will touch 80F. Hey, I would be happy with 65F!!

Anthony

TT-SEA · #4646 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:31 pm

The latest ECMWF would mean 80 degrees in places that get some downslope winds on Saturday or Sunday.

Like me!!

andycottle · #4647 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:39 pm

Ok...sounds good Tim! There for a minute, thought you were being sarcastic..hahaha. Had to read your next post..

-- Andy

andycottle · #4648 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:45 pm

Tim and all. It certainly does look like a very nice upcoming week ahead as 500MB heights from the GFS are near 570DM. Though, around the 22nd, 23rd...there might be a few spotty sprinkles as a weak cut-off low slides down the WA, OR coast and then on down CA coast by 24th. 25th time frame. -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #4649 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:46 pm

I expect the Sea - Tac low will be set this evening. In fact, I think they hit their low of 44 or 45 later in the morning than usual.

No doubt, if the ECMWF is correct it will get pretty warm. 80 still seems very outlandish though. I actually think the GFS has been better lately.

TT...I think you are about to go on a losing streak here. I have had periods of huge success in predicting in the past, myself. Like you, I got overconfident and eventually learned my lesson. :lol:

Nobody is ever perfect at this. I know you think I'm a terrible forecaster, but you have not seen me when I'm on a roll.

andycottle · #4650 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:53 pm

Hi again folks. Here`s a few pics of some cumulus clouds I saw earlier today on my way home from work. -- Andy

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

W13 · #4651 Postby **W13** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:01 pm

Great pictures Andy!

W13 · #4652 Postby **W13** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:03 pm

TT-SEA wrote:The latest ECMWF would mean 80 degrees in places that get some downslope winds on Saturday or Sunday.

Like me!!

While that may be possible, it most likely won't happen. It looks like highs next weekend will be around 65-70F in Seattle, and 70-75F in outlying areas such as Kent, North Bend, Bellevue, Olympia, etc.

Overall, this whole next week looks fantastic. Lots of sun and nice, comfortable warm temperatures. Perfect!

TT-SEA · #4653 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:09 pm

80 degrees would be the exception. Most places in the 70's... but a few places could get to 80. High temperatures a good 10-15 degrees above normal.

Certainly not in the 40's with rain like Snow_Wizzard would want!!

Snow_Wizzard... again you always predict cold. Always. So when you have a period of cold weather it seems like you're on a roll. But its just the law of averages.

You have seen me predict cold and warm aggressively and I have been pretty accurate.

I cannot even imagine you arguing for warmth. Maybe in the middle of summer and only when you think it means a cold winter is coming!!

andycottle · #4654 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:12 pm

Thanks Justin! What was your total rasin for today, Justin?

andycottle · #4655 Postby **andycottle** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:13 pm

ooops..lol. I meant rain! :lol:

TT-SEA · #4656 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:16 pm

Correction... Sea-Tac was just slightly below normal today (.5 of a degree to be exact). Better than the 8 degrees below normal earlier in the week!!

Amazing that Sea-Tac was essentially normal today.

Even more amazing is the fact the Olympia was 4.5 degrees ABOVE normal today. With a cold trough overhead!!!

Olympia is GUARANTEED to be considerably above normal for April.

Based on his readings... I would say Andy will end up above normal as well.

W13 · #4657 Postby **W13** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:22 pm

Andy, our total rain for the day was 0.83" and we are at 2.80" for the month.

TT-SEA · #4658 Postby **TT-SEA** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:41 pm

Sea-Tac is now .30 above their normal rainfall for the entire month. So far 2.83 inches as fallen and normal for all of April is 2.53 inches.

snow_wizzard · #4659 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:47 pm

TT...I am disappointed that you have such a low opinion of my knowledge. In all honesty it does come off as arrogant on your part. It is ridiculous that I have to try to prove myself to you. I have been predicting weather here for many, many years. You have absolutley no respect for my abilites or knowledge. I at least acknowledge that you do some pretty good forecasting.

You always miss the times that I'm right, and ignore the times you're wrong. I just wish you would show some respect. That is all I ask.

Do you seriously think, I never get anything right. What an insult!

snow_wizzard · #4660 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:48 pm

I still bet that Sea - Tac and Olympia have not set their lows for the day.

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