Convective Outlook: Florida (Day 2, Sunday, April 27)

[ColdFront77]

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER FLOW AND RISING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
STATES SUNDAY...AS VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGHING WILL
LINGER OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AS SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY
MID DAY...WHEN SURFACE-BASED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS LIKELY.
THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. A
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE STRENGTH OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT MAY REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH...THAT WITH MIXING TO THE SURFACE...WILL FOCUS LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST RATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
WHILE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST STORMS INITIATING NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...MAIN
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

[ColdFront77]

The Ruskin (Tampa Bay), Jacksonville and Melbourne National Weather Service offices are not forecasting showers and thunderstorms for their forecast area; after the National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Norman, Oklahoma issued the above Convective Outlook.

[Amanzi]

Thanks for posting that Tom.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
272000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
510 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULA TODAY.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
DRY AIR ALOFT HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
TODAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.

DESPITE THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS...RELATIVELY DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF AN APPROACHING
STORM. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE...LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL POSE THE
GREATEST HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS.