Will Volcanic action lately have effects on 2005 Season?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:11 pm

I wonder if all that Volcanic action that is taking place in Indonesia may have an effect on the upcomming season.My opinion looking at this is that maybe very warm waters move eastward having an effect of developing El Nino to a more stronger one than anticipated.Ok anyone who knows more about geology may answer my question if this action from those volcanoes may be another trigger of El Nino or not?

Derek Ortt · #2 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:15 pm

el nino is driven by changes in the thermocline and the trade winds. I do not see how this is related to volcanic activity.

Now, if we have a VEI7 or 8 from Toba, then we will have a significant effect. A VEI7 similar to Tambora would likely eliminate the entire season or even the next 2. A VEI8 and I am looking for a new line of employment in the meteorological field as there will not be any use for a trop met, assuming I survive that is

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:15 pm

There cannot possibly be an effect of warmer waters in a whole basin because of volcanic activity. The amount of energy needed to warm the water by volcanic activity is insurmountable. Now if theres a big eruption the climate will cool and we probably wont see much activity.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:18 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:el nino is driven by changes in the thermocline and the trade winds. I do not see how this is related to volcanic activity.

Now, if we have a VEI7 or 8 from Toba, then we will have a significant effect. A VEI7 similar to Tambora would likely eliminate the entire season or even the next 2. A VEI8 and I am looking for a new line of employment in the meteorological field as there will not be any use for a trop met, assuming I survive that is

Derek if I can ask what is a VE17 as many members including me

not know what is that?

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:33 pm

VEI is the scale of volcanic eruptions

St Helen's was a 5
Pinutubo and Krakatoa were 6's
Tambora was a 7
Yellowstone and Toba were 8's

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:34 pm

a 7 is about 500 times worse than a 5, while an 8 is about 20 times worse than a 7 (about 10,000 worse than a 5)

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 6:34 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:VEI is the scale of volcanic eruptions

St Helen's was a 5
Pinutubo and Krakatoa were 6's
Tambora was a 7
Yellowstone and Toba were 8's

Ok thank you.

#8 Postby **MGC** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:19 pm

Pinutubo errupted in June 1991. The 1991 Atlantic season saw 8 systems with 4 hurricanes. Volcano could have slowed the season.....MGC

ohiostorm · #9 Postby **ohiostorm** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:19 pm

Would a 7 put us into an Ice Age as well?

Scorpion · #10 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:32 pm

No, Tambora erupted as a 7 in 1815, there was no ice age, however there was a very cold summer following it.

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 9:48 pm

mgc,

1991 also had a nino

epac was hyperactive

#12 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Apr 18, 2005 10:23 pm

Isn't a VEI basically globe changing? I mean changing life as we know it for years to come and killing millions?

Derecho · #13 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:I wonder if all that Volcanic action that is taking place in Indonesia

There's almost no volcanic action in Indonesia currently, compared to normal. It was media hype.

There haven't been any large volcanic eruptions, enough to have the slightest effect on climate since, 1992.

There isn't the slighest indication of any volcanic activity at Toba or Toba getting ready to erupt, either. That was caused by a combination of media misquoting a scientist and a number of kook science sites spreading blatant lies.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:30 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Isn't a VEI basically globe changing? I mean changing life as we know it for years to come and killing millions?

A VEI8 (or supervolcano) would change life on Earth as we know it ... an event like this as about as rare as a large (over 2 miles) asteroid striking Earth.... it just doesn't happen very often, but when it does, the results are generally cataclysmic ...

No, Tambora erupted as a 7 in 1815, there was no ice age, however there was a very cold summer following it.

Now, in the case of Tambora in 1815 ... beforehand, there were two other severe eruptions of volcanoes as well as the Tambora eruption, and the few years afterward that followed was known as the "Year without a Summer" (1816) ...

SF

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:mgc,

1991 also had a nino

epac was hyperactive

Also, the ATC was still BLO normal at that time as well...

SF

Derecho · #16 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:34 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:Isn't a VEI basically globe changing? I mean changing life as we know it for years to come and killing millions?

A VEI8 (or supervolcano) would change life on Earth as we know it ... an event like this as about as rare as a large (over 2 miles) asteroid striking Earth.... it just doesn't happen very often, but when it does, the results are generally cataclysmic ...

The term "supervolcano" actually isn't really formally defined. All VEI 8s are defined as them, but to some degree larger VEI 7s are included amoung some scientists.

The chance of one in the next 100 years is about 1 in 5,000.

There aren't the slightest signs of any erupting in the near future.

kevin · #17 Postby **kevin** » Thu Apr 21, 2005 8:48 pm

DERECHO! Long time no see.

Will Volcanic action lately have effects on 2005 Season?

Will Volcanic action lately have effects on 2005 Season?

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