Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

Man oh man...I had to take some time off from here! I did not get a bloody thing done on Saturday!

I am going to shock everyone on here and predict warmer than the NWS on Saturday and Sunday! I would like to see them be right, but I am thinking 65 - 75 on Saturday and mostly 60s, but maybe a few low 70s on Sunday. I am still in agreement with them after Sunday. By Sunday onshore will kick in and should result in the final 5 or so days of the month being near normal...maybe even a bit below normal on a few days.

As for the global warming argument, I think we have seen a warming, but do not for sure it is man caused. I think there is still a good chance it is simply all a natural cycle. I remember in the early 1970s the scientists were freaking out becuase we had a brief period of sharp global cooling. The were actually saying we could be going into an ice age. The moral...don't be too premature in jumping on these bandwagons!

[snow_wizzard]

Justin...Now you see why I am so anxious to move out to Palmer! You are darn right it's a well kept secret. Hardly anybody knows about it out there. I hope it stays that way!

When you are there it's easy to imagine you are 100 miles from Seattle. And the weather is so awesome! I have driven out there when there is rain in Ravensdale and by the time you get to the Cumberland cutoff road it is a blinding snowstrom with 30 mph winds. Last winter, there was a day that there was a little bit of rain and sleet falling in Kent. In Palmer and Kanaskat it was 27 degrees with 50mph (no exaggeration) east winds, with blowing and drifting snow. The shear difference in weather between the two places was breathtaking!

[TT-SEA]

I am not sure if you actually mean it or if you are just trying to prove me wrong.

Either way... it is a breath of fresh air to see you forecast higher than the NWS.

Welcome aboard the train I have been driving for almost a week now!! I am telling you... I have a sixth sense about these pattern changes. I can certainly be wrong. Some variable throws the pattern in another direction and sends my predictions into a tailspin. But I have noticed I have an overall sense of pattern changes even when the NWS and NCEP are saying the opposite.

Rightfully so in this case. And next week could be even warmer if the trough develops farther offshore and sends some southerly flow our way on the back side of a big ridge.

Honestly... the pattern is so blocked right now that my confidence is lower than usual.

[TT-SEA]

O.K... I have to drive up to Palmer this weekend.

Give me directions and mileage from Hwy 18.

I know what you are talking about when you say remote. Looking out the window of our new house you would think you were 200 miles from civilization. But I-90 is just a few miles away... yet cannot be seen or heard.

Snow_Wizzard... does your wife share your obsession with cold or is she just annoyed with you??!!

My wife loves living out here in North Bend where the weather gets wild... but she gets very annoyed if I try to explain it to her. She just wants to use me as an instant weather forecast when she needs it.

She wanted to live outside of the city... but still wanted lots of young families nearby. I did my research on local microclimates and factored in her desires and we are in perfect agreement on where we built our house!!

[TT-SEA]

Our temperatures today were basically normal.

That was with clouds until mid-afternoon and a 850mb temperature around 1C.

Tomorrow - total sunshine and 850mb temperature of 6C. That should translate into a high at Sea-Tac of 65 degrees (normal is 59 degrees).

Wednesday - more sunshine and 850mb temperature of 9C. That should translate into a high at Sea-Tac of 68 degrees.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...My wife thinks I am stark raving nuts about the weather! I know it would not be polite of me to go on and on about it with her, so I try to keep it brief when I do. It sounds like you have come to a great compromise with your wife. That is a great thing!

To get to Palmer...Take highway 18 to the Maple Valley turn off. Take the Maple Valley highway southbound to the junction of highway 516. You will take a left onto 516 (actually it ceases to be 516 when you go that way). It is about three or four miles to the Lake Retreat Road. When you get to that road take a right. After a few more miles you will come to the Cumberland Road (or something like that). Take a right onto that. The area for the next couple of miles is Palmer. If you do not take that right you go to Kanaskat, which I actually like better. The Kanaskat plain gets the wildest winds and the most snow. You can see the valley that the east wind screams out of in the winter! You can see the one sided trees after you turn onto the Cumberland raod, just to give you an idea of how windy it is there.

You are correct that the weather pattern progged for the next week or so is BIZARRE. I would be a liar if I said I was 100% sure of what the temps will be a week from now.

[snow_wizzard]

One last thing...I think your temperature curve for Sea-Tac will not be accurate for the next two days. The flow will still have an onshore component to it. On top of that the mornings will be colder, thus getting things off to a slower start.

[TT-SEA]

If your wife thinks you're nuts about weather... will she let you move up to Palmer??

Dude... our wives probably have a great deal in common dealing with us!!

[TT-SEA]

I don't know... the latest run of the NAM has the ridge taking up residence right over us. More so than past runs!!

Here is Thursday afternoon...

[invisible]

The town of Palmer sounds interesting about the weather. I am wondering about seasonal weather averages for that area. Colder than Bellingham in winter or what ???

[andycottle]

My high today was 60 with a low of 42 and partly cloudy skies for much of the day. Though clouds began to clear out some more as the late afternoon hours came around. Currently I have clear skies and a temp of 49 here at 8:19pm. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

TT...She is up for it. I have convinced her that Wal-Mart going in right next to us, means it's time to move! She does know my real motives though!

Invisible...Palmer is snowier than Bellingham, and about as cold. Lynden and Sumas are colder, but not as snowy.

[snow_wizzard]

This is an intersting map that shows the period for 1968 through 1974 for all seasons of the year. Notice how the colder than normal areas far outweigh the warmer than normal. This period was not that long ago and is compared to the normal for 1895 to 2000! It was this period that led scientists to think we might be heading for an ice age. Could the global warming be a case of the "boy that cried wolf"? I say, let's wait until the next cool phase and see how it compares to past events.

[snow_wizzard]

The subject of the little ice age came up a couple of days ago. From what I have been able to find out, global cold periods effect western Europe, SE Alaska, western Canada, and the Pacific NW the most profoundly. I think this is due to the fact that maritime influence becomes less of a factor during such periods. One can only imagine the amazing amounts of snow that our area received during the height of the little ice age!

When I was doing research for my book, I found an article in the P-I microfilm from 1893, that was quite amazing. They interviewed a Native American who said a story was handed down through the tribe talking about snow "5 mans deep" in the Puget Sound area. That would mean somewhere around 25 feet of snow. Given that we had 6 feet in 1880, I would not call that impossible.

Unlike TT, I would love to see a good 10 feet anyway!

[TT-SEA]

Next week is looking very warm... the GFS does not have a trough within 800 miles of Seattle.

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_192m.gif [/img]

[snow_wizzard]

If the GFS is right WATCH OUT. The precipitation maps show what would likely be severe thunderstorms for Everett southward for days 4 and 5. At one point it shows an inch of water over SW WA in a 6 hour period. The upper air map shows a strong flow of moist unstable comeing up from the south. It is too early to buy off on this, but it could be remarkable if it happens.

TT...I was going to hold you to your predictions very strictly, but this is so amazingly messed up that I would not expect anybody to get every detail right. This month is really proving to be interesting!

[TT-SEA]

For the record... I said warm with the possibility of thunderstorms. Much like a summer pattern.

You said... cloudy, onshore flow, and below normal temperatures for next week. Much like winter.

I think my general theme seems to be working out a little better.

[Guest]

TT i am at 100% disagreement with what you think our winters will be like... When we get blasted with arctic air and snow next year, it will not be a freak occurence. Just because the entire United states has been on a warmup the last 10-15 years doesn't mean global warming. Just because it is something that is unusual and usually with cycles it would be cold in the east during our warm periods, don't jump to conclusion by saying GLOBAL WARMING...

[Guest]

TT even snowwizz says he isn't holding you accountable for your original prediction so just chillout about seeing who is right about this... Lets ignore that part about it and all admit that what is about to happen is something that not many of us have seen much. This pattern coming up is tweaked out big time so lets enjoy it... This entire year is a big transition year and tons of crazy stuff is going to, already has, and will happen over the course of this next year...

[andycottle]

Latest GFS tonight is still holding the theme of dry weather this week, though there does appear to be a chance of showers this weekend with about 30% chance Saturday and about 60% for Sunday..per MOS. 850MB temps are +6C and 500MB vorticity heights of 564DM. Jet stream winds over the weekend appear southerly and 40 to 50kts. With such high heights and temps, would think we`ll just end up with partly cloudy skies and the cascades ending up with thoes showers. Will have too see if that vort lobe touches off any mountain t-storm showers for upcoming weekend once the days get closer to that time period.

-- Andy