Maybe a dry End to April into May

[boca]

The way the weather pattern is setting up we could again have a dry second half of April and it could continue into May if the Bermuda High sets up just right. It actually has been very dry in SE FL even though the absence of the Bermuda High the last month.

[StormChasr]

he way the weather pattern is setting up we could again have a dry second half of April and it could continue into May if the Bermuda High sets up just right

The same story again--the Bermuda High had very little to do with last season's situation. Worry less about the Bermuda High, and more about other things. The chance of getting a direct hit by a hurricane are still slim.

[boca]

true good point

[gatorcane]

StormChasr, please qualify your Bermuda High statement for me. I would argue otherwise. Thanks.

[boca]

Didn't the Bermuda high last year cause Frances and Jeanne to slam into the Stuart area.

[boca]

Another point is that the high was so strong it forced these storms on a more westerly course rather than NW towards the Carolina's.

[gatorcane]

You are absolutely correct Boca...I would take StormChasr's knowledge
on this topic with a grain of salt...

[StormChasr]

You are absolutely correct Boca...I would take StormChasr's knowledge
on this topic with a grain of salt...

And,likewise, I shall take yours accordingly. Only time will clarify what the reality of the situation shall be. Since you're not one of the NHC forecasters, I will rely on their (and other professional) opinions.

[Anonymous]

As for my opinion, I respect both of you guys opinions. However, the high does have alot to do with landfalls.

High was not in place in 2003...two hurricanes..

High was IN PLACE in 2004...five hurricanes..

[StormChasr]

As for my opinion, I respect both of you guys opinions. However, the high does have alot to do with landfalls.

High was not in place in 2003...two hurricanes..

High was IN PLACE in 2004...five hurricanes..

I respect your opinion a lot, Floyd. You've done your homework on a lot of terriffic threads, and that animation of the high was nothing short of great. I guess we'll see what happens....we're all more than a bit jumpy as to landfall prospects.

[cyclonaut]

he way the weather pattern is setting up we could again have a dry second half of April and it could continue into May if the Bermuda High sets up just right

The same story again--the Bermuda High had very little to do with last season's situation. Worry less about the Bermuda High, and more about other things. The chance of getting a direct hit by a hurricane are still slim.

Well its obvious that Daytona Beach's chances of getting a hurricane are beyond slim if history is any indication.It seems like college kids love Daytona but hurricanes sure don't.& enough with this Bermuda High talk people,its getting to the point where some believe that this is the only wx pattern that exists.Hurricanes can approach Florida from just about every direction & many wx patterns can assist in how hurricanes can move & threaten this state.Hurricanes can move into or develop in the Caribbean Sea & get picked by troughs &/or move around the periphery of a high & hit Florida as Irene & the countless hurricanes that hit last century.Hurricanes can come from the SSE like Cleo & I'm sure others have done @ 1 time or the other.I'm sure 1 day a hurricane will approach Florida from the west moving east like Lenny did in the Caribbean Sea a few years ago.Florida is a peninsula which means there is water on 3 sides which means hurricanes have a variety of ways to affect this area which means don't put so much emphasis on this Bermuda High which comes and goes all season long.

[StormChasr]

Well, Daytona-Ormond got hammered with the exit path of Charley---winds of 90 mph, with gusts to 109, so I wouldn't dismiss anything. Still lots of blue roofs here.

[cyclonaut]

Your right there has been some action there.Charley like you mentioned,I forgot that Frances was impressive up there as well.Jeanne had to have caused some damage to you guys as well,forgive me I can't recall exactly what Jeanne did up there but looking @ a sat pic from when she made landfall in Ft.Pierce it looks like there had to be some pretty rough weather up that way.I am aware that Daytona Beach sits on the east coast of Florida & though that area sometimes has a reputation of being immune to hurricanes,all good things come to a end.

[StormChasr]

It wasn't terrible, but was far from great. I am beachside, and we did get pounded by Charley on exit, Frances, even though it was over 100 miles away--it was so slow and lumbering. Jeanne did little damage, but messed up the beaches ferociously, eroding dunes and coastline, and wrecking seawalls.

[gatorcane]

But nonetheless I don't think the Northeast coast of Florida has ever seen a major hurricane...if so please let me know which one and what year. Sure the hurricanes of 2004 did some damage up there but they were not major hurricanes by the time they got there. If you look at tracks from 1886 usually it's about Stuart South along the East coast that gets hammered.

[StormChasr]

Dora in 1964. Atlantic hit in the St. Augustine area. Look up historic tracks. Extremely low probability of that ever happening again, but possible. It was steered by a fluke situation.

[StormChasr]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/dora1964.html


Here's Dora's track--it was highly unusual, and the only one in over 100 years.

[gatorcane]

yeah thanks for the map...that is highly unusual....I wonder why the Northeast part of Florida is spared. It may have to do with the shape of the Southeast coastline and the fact that South Florida "sticks" out more into the Atlantic than the Northeast part.

[StormChasr]

Strikes north of 27 N latitude are rare. Remember, the Gulf Stream is almost on shore at Boca Raton. In Jacksonville, the currents are almost 150 miles out to sea. The Gulf Stream is an intensifier of hurricanes. Also, Cape Canaveral does form a physical obstacle, making it difficult for a coast hugging storm to come in from the North, or straight East.

[weatherwindow]

in terms of track, i think boca chris nailed it. as an aside, dunn/banner put it a little differently in "atlantic hurricanes", but it certainly illustrates the point. they suggested that the average location of the outermost closed isobar of the bermuda high, in sept, is about 80deg west. this roughly coincides with the southeast fla coast from dade county north to about vero beach. absent of any other influences, a storm following this track could affect the se fla coast and miss jax by 120 mi. just an interesting factoid that few realize, jax is 7mi further west than key west. 81.8 versus 81.7. the northeast coast has the lowest prob of landfall in the state due to this. as far as intensity, chaser certainly makes a valid point. with the stream approximately 150mi offshore and ssts dropping to the west, any storm moving perpendicular to the northeast coastline would likely weaken. another note from the above reference, altho by a different author, the average latitude of recurvature in sept is 30deg n, which coincides with jax. as noted in an earlier post, averages have little or no predictive value, but they do give us some insight into the long term probabilities of landfall.....rich