Last year vs this year

[StormChasr]

One thing is virtually guarranteed--the landfall pattern will NOT be the same as 2004. It may be an active season, but a repeat of a 500 year event won't happen.

[Anonymous]

Well, as people at the NHC said...alot of stock is put into the ridge, which appears to be building in last year's position. As they said "It does not mean we will have four hurricanes, but I would not be surprised if we had six."

If the ridge builds like it's looking like it will build, if a storm gets caught under it...all bets are off for the Southeast US.

[gatorcane]

I agree with stormchasr, I've looked back at tracks from every season since 1886 and we have not seen anything like 2004 for FL. The closest is 1933 and 1968, but the successor year was not nearly as active. We'll see lots of hurricanes around the Atlantic this year but I would be very surprised if we saw another round like 2004.

[StormChasr]

I agree with stormchasr, I've looked back at tracks from every season since 1886 and we have not seen anything like 2004 for FL. The closest is 1933 and 1968, but the successor year was not nearly as active. We'll see lots of hurricanes around the Atlantic this year but I would be very surprised if we saw another round like 2004.

I think we will see 8-9 fish, and some early season tropical storms. As far as landfalls, look how warm the Gulf of Mex is already. I am really worried about the Texas coast, and the outer banks of NC.

[Anonymous]

I am concerned about Texas/Lousiana and Florida. I think Southeast Florida will be hit...but that is my opinion.

[x-y-no]

I think Southeast Florida will be hit...but that is my opinion.

Bite your tongue!

Here's hoping you're wrong. I wouldn't bet against it, though.

[cyclonaut]

I think we are going to have a high landfall ratio again this year.

We are in that cycle thats been talked about for years now.

[Scorpion]

Conditions look even more favorable now than they did in 2004. I doubt that FL will get hit as many times, but a few close calls or strikes aren't out of the question.

[TampaFl]

[gatorcane]

TampaFL I wouldn't be worried. I've analyzed all hurricane tracks since 1886 and we have never seen a situation where 3 storms were brought in from the east by the Bermuda High. Usually some come there and others come in from the south and west. Usually the successor year is more quite than the previous year. There really is no real pattern.

[Rainband]

One thing is virtually guarranteed--the landfall pattern will NOT be the same as 2004. It may be an active season, but a repeat of a 500 year event won't happen.

There are no certainties when it comes to the tropics

[Rainband]

TampaFL I wouldn't be worried. I've analyzed all hurricane tracks since 1886 and we have never seen a situation where 3 storms were brought in from the east by the Bermuda High. Usually some come there and others come in from the south and west. Usually the successor year is more quite than the previous year. There really is no real pattern.

Exactly, so throw that comment out There is no usually when it comes to the tropics.

[TampaFl]

But it is not out of the realm of possibility that Fl could get hit by 1, maybe 2 hurricanes this year. This was rather common in the 1920's & through the 1960's. Not every year though.

Robert

[cyclonaut]

Its always possible for Florida to get hit by multiple hurricanes in 1 season & it can happen again this year.

From the 1940 thru 1950 the peninsula of Florida was hit by 12 hurricanes,even more impressive is that 10 of those hits happened from 45 - 50...10 hurricanes in 6 years!!! 8 of 10 were majors!!!

Miami,Tampa,The Keys,West Palm Beach,just about the entire peninsula got in on the action.There also were a few tropical storms thrown in for good measure.A tropically chaotic time indeed for Florida in those days.

[gatorcane]

isn't anybody worried that we are going to see that activity again? Last year was the first year of a decade or two of chaos for Florida?

[Anonymous]

Well, as many have said...since 1995 we are in this pattern.

[StormChasr]

Last year was the first year of a decade or two of chaos for Florida?

Nope. We've been in an increased level of activity since 1995, and possibly earlier, as early as 1989 is also rumored to be the begining of that period. We're probably closer to the end, or late middle of the increased period of activity.

[Anonymous]

Last year was the first year of a decade or two of chaos for Florida?

Nope.

Yep. I am afraid to say, we are in the 1940's type of pattern, and for Florida NOT HAVING A 2004-TYPE SEASON again...might want to see this:::

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 310#860310

[TampaFl]

Last year was the first year of a decade or two of chaos for Florida?

Nope. We've been in an increased level of activity since 1995, and possibly earlier, as early as 1989 is also rumored to be the begining of that period. We're probably closer to the end, or late middle of the increased period of activity.

Stormchaser, I respectivly disagree that we are probaly closer to the end, or late middle of increased activity. Since 1995, the activity has increased markedly (with the exception of 1997). According to Dr. Gray prior to the start of the 2004 season, the US has been extremly lucky since 1995 in that more major hurricanes have not hit. IMHO, 2004 may be the start of more increased land falls in the US. Of course at this time of year it is still way to early to tell. Floydbuster is right in his research, not just for Florida, but for the US as a whole. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert