Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

I gotta agree with you Snow_Wizzard. It does look interesting.

But it will be warm!!

[andycottle]

Snow-wizzard, apology excepted.. ...no biggy Just wanted to have an answer to my question with some info. My next question is this: Think you said in order to find normals for the area of your local...you need 10yrs worth of data. Since I only have 4yrs worth of data(going on 5ys right now) here for my area of Woodinville, would I be able to find normal temps??

If this is of any help to you, Snow-wizzard, here`s my yearly avg. high/low temp for the past 4yrs starting back in 2001. -- Andy

AVG. YEARLY HIGH/LOW TEMP for Woodinville.

2001: 60/41
2002: 62/43
2003: 62/44
2004: 60/44

[andrewr]

Andy, here is a site that seems to have a little climate data on Woodinville: http://www.city-data.com/city/Woodinvil ... ngton.html It isn't much, but at least you can compare the months.

EDIT: The info. probably isn't specifically for Woodinville, but should be closer than just the info. for Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

Check out this satellite picture from this afternoon.

It really shows the snowpack in the mountains. It also shows the topography very well.

Look at the river valley in BC that opens up and widens out to Vancouver BC and Bellingham. Also look at how it runs northeast to southwest. Perfect for bringing in cold air.

The valleys farther south are all pointed in the wrong direction to be ideal for bringing cold air to Seattle.

Fascinating. I had never seen it so clearly before.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?USA1/2005109/USA1.2005109.terra.1km.jpg

[andycottle]

Very cool, Tim! Sure is a lot of thoes alto stratocumulus clouds off the WA, OR coast. Pretty neat!

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...You need to get your monthly averages. For example, if you have five January's where the monthly averages are...

38.0
38.5
40.0
41.2
39.0

You get a total of 196.70. Divide that by five and you get your normal monthly average...which in this case is 39.3. Now...if your monthly normal for February is 41.0, and March is 45.0, you will figure out your daily normals by doing the following. Take February for example...the normal monthly average is 41 and March is 45 that is four degrees lower than the March average. You need to have a normal of 41 at mid month in February and a normal of 45 at mid March. You then move your normal up at increments to smoothly blend into the March normal. In this case, Feb 11 - Feb 18 would have a normal of 41...Feb 19 - Feb 26 a normal of 42...Feb 27 - Mar 4 a normal of 43...Mar 5 - Mar 11 a normal of 44....Mar 12 - Mar 19 a normal of 45. Anyway, that should give you an idea. You should find all of your monthly normals before you begin to do this.

Another really neat thing you could do to get a longer period of record would be to apply adjustments to the Sea - Tac records, or Everett records. Basically, if you find that the 5 year period that had a January average of 39.3 at your place, had an average of 40.0 at Sea - Tac for the same 5 years, you would apply a correction of -0.7 degrees to the Sea - Tac monthly totals to use for your data base to determine what normal is for you.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...That picture is incredible. You really can see how the Fraser allows the precious cold air to get to western WA! Some of the Cascade Valleys such as the Snoqualmie and Green do allow some cold air to get into the foothill areas, but it does not go nearly as far as the air from the Fraser.

[snow_wizzard]

I think that after Saturday we will see near normal high temps for the next few days at least. Things are looking kind of cloudy and wet for early next week. This run even shows the 850mb temps dropping as low as 2C early next week. That with clouds could equal highs a bit below normal.

[andycottle]

Viewing the 00z GFS....rest of the work week is look`n pretty good with mostly sunny skies. Keep the shades handy! Per MOS for Seattle...temps appearing to be in the mid 60`s and near 70 for Saturday. If we do get T-Storms, the best time to have them looks like sunday afternoon into early evening time as a 1008MB comes up from the south. 24hr T-Storm POP is near 30% for Sunday. This low looks pretty wet too, as 12, 24, 36hr precip totals show near an inch of precip for the Southern part of Western Washington. Rest of us may recieve somewhat lighter amounts, but still a good deal of rain. With a light onshore flow at 850MB and 700MB level, acompanied by a 40kt southerly flow at 500MB with height of 564DM and the low coming up from the south....the possibilty of t-storms should become more of a likely hood as the weekend gets closer. Main threat for right now would probably be lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds. But we all here at the board will have a much better take on this once things become more clearer.

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Andy...You need to get your monthly averages. For example, if you have five January's where the monthly averages are...

38.0
38.5
40.0
41.2
39.0

You get a total of 196.70. Divide that by five and you get your normal monthly average...which in this case is 39.3. Now...if your monthly normal for February is 41.0, and March is 45.0, you will figure out your daily normals by doing the following. Take February for example...the normal monthly average is 41 and March is 45 that is four degrees lower than the March average. You need to have a normal of 41 at mid month in February and a normal of 45 at mid March. You then move your normal up at increments to smoothly blend into the March normal. In this case, Feb 11 - Feb 18 would have a normal of 41...Feb 19 - Feb 26 a normal of 42...Feb 27 - Mar 4 a normal of 43...Mar 5 - Mar 11 a normal of 44....Mar 12 - Mar 19 a normal of 45. Anyway, that should give you an idea. You should find all of your monthly normals before you begin to do this.

Another really neat thing you could do to get a longer period of record would be to apply adjustments to the Sea - Tac records, or Everett records. Basically, if you find that the 5 year period that had a January average of 39.3 at your place, had an average of 40.0 at Sea - Tac for the same 5 years, you would apply a correction of -0.7 degrees to the Sea - Tac monthly totals to use for your data base to determine what normal is for you.

Wow Snow wizzard....you are great at figuring this out! Besides reading what you just gave me....you would have to show me what you just said...in person so I better unstand how I would go about doing this.
-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Andy...I was afraid of that. It looks a lot worse than it is.

[Guest]

TT what i am saying is that you aren't being clear about what you think... You previously said that global warming is due to human causes... Now you are agreeing with Vbtoux about the huge cycle that is 100% mother nature... If you are agreeing with VBtoutex about the cycle and still saying it is global warming, i don't understand... .

[andycottle]

Andy...I was afraid of that. It looks a lot worse than it is.

If only it was in simpler terms for me to understand... I do thank you kindly for tring to help me though..

[R-Dub]

Hello everyone!

Well currently at Moses Lake its mostly sunny with a temp of 40 degrees at 6:30AM
We had a high yesterday of 72 degrees under Partly Sunny skies with breezy conditions!

Well on my way home in a few hrs, will post some pics tonight!

[andycottle]

Hi Randy! Have a safe trip back across the cascades and hope you had a good time over at Moses Lake. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good morning all! Another nice day is in store with highs in the 60`s. Currently my at 8:17a.m is 40 with humidity 100% and baro 29.85 and steady. -- Andy

[Guest]

I think some places will reach the mid 70's today...Most will stay right around 70 though

[andycottle]

Currently I have a temp of 53 and clear skies here. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Latest GFS this morning is still showing the possibilty of showers exisiting on sunday as a weak low pressure system heads up our way from Eastern Oregon. But majorty of the showers, along with maybe some t-storms appear to be over the Central and South central cascades as 500MB winds look to be from the South and SW. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

This warm period is starting to look more and more shakey all the time! Now it looks like we will have low clouds tomorrow. In fact Olympia is actually in a cold fog this morning. After that we get into showers this weekend and early next week. The NWS is actually predicting highs in the 50s to low 60s early next week. That could actually mean slightly below normal. I think the only days that have any real chance of 70 are MAYBE some places today, maybe some places on Friday and Saturday. After that it looks pretty cool with clouds and 850mb temps dropping to near normal values. I will admit, I was getting a little bit worried there....It looks like the below normal monthly average temperature values will survive.