Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

By the way...It still looks like there might be some thunderstorms this weekend. This latest run would indicate the foothills are the most likely place to see that type of activity. The NWS is mentioning a THETA-E Ridge this weekend. Those things usually bring some wicked T-Storms!

Like windstorms and snowstorms, this will be a wait and see game...

[AnthonyC]

Another AWESOME day...currently 62F with mostly sunny conditions. A few high clouds are drifting through.

As for this upper level low...where will it go? The GFS is the oddball model bringing precipitation to parts of Western Washington, esp. this weekend. I still continue to believe it will by dry and VERY warm this weekend...mostly sunny with temperatures in the 70s.

KEEP THIS WEATHER COMING!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... I am not sure you know what you are talking about!!

Next week looks very pleasant... most likely above normal even on the 12Z run of the GFS.

Here is next Tuesday...

[andycottle]

A nice afternoon here as well! Skies are currently partly cloudy...mainly some high cirrus clouds drifting westward over the cascades. My temp is 68 with humidity 43% with DP 45 and baro 29.74 and steady.

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

I am just saying that this pattern is not proving to be a REALLY warm one. The details are wrong. Too much onshore flow now, too low of heights early next week, a high chance of showers early next week. It does remain to be seen if we might pull out a couple of more dramatically warm days the second half of next week. Widespread 70s for all of next are not going to happen. At any rate, I do believe that TT is right, once we get into May things are going to get cool again. That southern branch of the jetstream has to come north again. It is way too late in the season for it stay down there.

We actually managed a low of 35 last night, which should serve to keep the daily average from being above normal (at least for my area). Then we have the low clouds tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

Well... Andy is about to hit 70 degrees!!

I currently have 67.6 degrees and still rising. I see Covington is at 70 degrees now. Of course Snow_Wizzard is probably in the upper 50's!!


Also... 1993 keeps popping up on the analog years. Combining that with all the other similarities makes it a really good match.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... you are WAY too focused on small details. The low at Sea-Tac was 41 degrees and I see Covington Elementary had a low of 40 degrees (which you cannot say is too warm because of sunshine).

Today is ABOVE normal for Western Washington. Pure and simple.

You never addressed my comments about the general lack of importance on below normal months outside of the winter season. There are SO many examples of cool summers leading to warm winters. I have been doing quite a bit of research lately. It almost seems like we are wasting a below normal month outside of November - March.

In this period of global warming (natural or not)... below normal months are in short supply. You should hope for hot weather until November!!

[TT-SEA]

Always remember... the old rules no longer apply.

[andycottle]

Actually Tim...I`m at 70 degrees as of 3:07pm. And mostly sunny skies.

[TT-SEA]

Awesome.

70 degrees is pretty nice.

Must be about normal... right Snow_Wiz??

[andycottle]

Hey Tim....don`t know if you kept an eye on the WA coast today, but the low clouds still continue to hang tuff over the imeadite coast line area. and temps as of last hour....per MM5 Station Obs..reading are currently in the lower 50`s.

But of course if you MUCH further inland, temps are in the mid 60`s to near 70.

[andycottle]

Should get some more interesting cloud formations as they head westward across the cascades through rest of this afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

The NWS is not too excited about our rain chances coming up this weekend...

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS THIS WEEKEND EXTENDS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. GIVEN THE PATTERN...MODELS PRODUCE WAY TOO MUCH PRECIP. NO CHANGES TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. KAM

[andycottle]

Here`s some pics of the cirrus clouds I took from earlier today. With these cirrus clouds around, this evenings sunset should be pretty nice!

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/969b

-- Andy

[andrewr]

In defense of Snow_wizzard, I believe that the Covington Elementary schoolnet site is always a few (or in some cases more than a few) degrees warmer than people not directly in the city. It could be the asphault or something which results in the slightly different temperatures.

[snow_wizzard]

TT...You do have an interesting point about every below normal month being at a premium. On the other hand below normal months come in bunches. There are so many examples of years where 9 or 10 months of the entire year averaged below normal. There are also plenty of cool summers that led to cold winters, especially in the 1950s and before. As for the temps today. Some places are fairly warm but still nothing to write home about, and the NWS is only talking about it getting cooler. Sea - Tac's reading is actually quite unimprssive today. I saw 61 at 3:00pm.

AS FOR THE COVINGTON ELEMENTARY THERMOMETER...IT IS INACCURATE! I have been meaning to tell someone about that. I have many, many, many thermometers that say it is too high. I have three different thermometers that said it got down to 35 last night. One is a weather station, one is a mercury recording, and one is a wireless thermometer. To me inaccurate readings are poison, whether they are high or low. I want true numbers.

As for the shower / thunderstorm threat this weekend, I am surprised that the NWS is ignoring every single run showing it will happen. The fuel for this is going to be a moist southerly flow interacting with Canadian air over the northern half of the state. Those dynamics are what produce severe weather in the mid section of the country. We shall see...

In the long range...the last two runs have shown a high amp ridge to our west and a major N to NE flow out of Canada. I like that configuration no matter what time of year it is. You can say that late season cold nights are meaningless, but 1949 begs to differ on that!

[snow_wizzard]

Thanks Andrew! I am going to take my state of the art hand held temperature unit to the school tonight and see how the readings compare.

By the way...Sea - Tac is still only 61, as of 4:00pm. I must admit, that does surprise me. Pleasantly though!

I seem to remember that TT said 68 for today at Sea - Tac. I just bring that up to prove that everyone is fallible. I said 62 - 67....

[TT-SEA]

Again... the Sea-Tac reading is hard to predict.

I reached 68 degrees here and so did many other places. So I got the general theme correct.

Even Auburn... just down the road from Sea-Tac got up to 69 degrees today.

Some highs temperatures from school sites (some of which I think are usually too low)...

North Bend (my house) - 68
Auburn - 69
Bothell - 67
Issaquah - 69
Samammish - 70
Bellevue - 68.5
Bainbridge Island - 66.5
Bremerton - 72
Woodinville (per Andy) - 70
Arlington - 66
Kingston - 69.5
Covington - 71 (fits right in)

And...
Olympia - 67
Sea-Tac - 62



I gotta say... overall I was right in the ballpark. Sea-Tac is the oddball. You are missing the point if you focus on one location!!

[TT-SEA]

These are normal highs for about June 1st... not April 20th!!

[TT-SEA]

The high clouds could make the low clouds erratic tonight.

And the 18Z run of the GFS keeps the trend of warm and dry next week. No cold troughs near Seattle!!