Record FL Lows At End of Apr. May Mean Slow Start, Good News

[gatorcane]

These are some of the forecasted lows/records for this coming Sun./Mon. for FL. NO THIS IS NOT A MISTAKE. THE COOL AIR IS ON ITS WAY YET AGAIN FOR FL. If you look back at the hurricane seasons for the years below, we notice the following pattern: 1) we saw no hurricanes before August 2) no major hurricanes hit FL, and 3) no major hurricanes formed until September and later. I will argue that these three patterns may hold this year also. Finally (maybe) some good news for FL!

Lows for Select Florida Peninsula Cities, Mon. Apr 25th

Orlando: Forecast Low 49, Record 49 (1986)
Tampa: Forecast Low 53, Record 53 (1984)
Ft. Myers/Naples: Forecast Low 53, Record 53 (1986)
West Palm Beach: Forecast Low 55, Record 56 (1998)
Miami/Ft. Lauderdale: Forecast Low 56, Record 59 (1998)
Key West: Forecasted Low 65, Record 63 (1983)

[T'Bonz]

I am LOVING this cool weather. Coolest April I can remember in a long time (minus Easter, when it was 92 and the day my A.C. crapped out on me. heh.)

[gtalum]

Must be global warming.

[boca]

According to Mia Disscussion the lows will not be as cool as originally thought.Let's face it Florida is probably going to have another dry May.I smell water restrictions soon. That is my opinion unless the pattern were in does a 360 turn.

[gatorcane]

FYI - I saw a graphic put on on news channel 10 the other day. Dade and Monroe counties are the driest counties in the state right now.

[x-y-no]

Must be global warming.

Not to hijack this thread, but regional phenomena do not neccesarily correlate to what is happening in the global mean.

Jan

[boca]

Here in Palm Beach county we were the driest in Feb and March I guess it shifted South. We can use A good ole fashioned tropical depression.We haven't had rain here in 30 days.

[boca]

The weather is so sleepy boring I would be happy about talking about a mid latitude system hitting the Pacific Northwest.

[depotoo]

well north county has gotten lots of rain! you guys haven't??

[gatorcane]

Boca, last weekend the Hatteras low spun off some showers. South Palm Beach got some light rain but northern palm beach got more rain. Also a couple of weeks ago we saw heavy rain from a strong cold front (it came in around 2 AM here in South Palm Beach). Remember that?

[depotoo]

yeah - we got it too. according to the nws we are above normal for the year. so that is good news.

[cyclonaut]

Good news for Florida because its cool in mid-April???I don't get some of these threads.Seems like people are taking their fear of hurricanes & implementing it into some sort of forecast.When Aug & Sept arrive these temps & this weather we are seeing now will be a distant memory.The weather pattern thats in place @ that time will be responsible for where storms develop & go to, not the trough thats going to move through in a few days.Its spring, the temps are still subject to warm up & cool down,its a transitional period,it was 87 a NYC yesterday does that mean they will be hit by a hurricane?Well its 25 degrees cooler today there so maybe not.

[Anonymous]

Could not agree more. Just because it is 45 degress here in Ohio, does that mean I won't have a bad severe weather season in the next few months? No.

[vacanechaser]

Great points cyclonaut cyclonaut, i agree... It is April for goddnes sakes... Anybody trying to figure out what is going to happen in August and September now is going to be disapointed IMO... April is one of those months with big swings in the weather due to the transition... Dont hold your breath boca_chris, this pattern right now means nothing...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scorpion]

Temps now have absolutely no correlation of what will happen in 4 months.

[Aquawind]

Well said Cyclonaut.. Were a long ways from Prime Time.. Someone in another thread posted temps from 2004 versus this year and there wasn't that much difference at that particular Florida location.. It has been an extended winter regarding temps and dewpoints..


Paul

[Brent]

Must be global warming.

They are predicting Upper 30's here Sunday Morning. It's LATE April for goodness sake. We were near 85 yesterday. It's wreaking havoc on my sinuses.

[gatorcane]

all, I am not saying there is a direct relationship between FL temperature records hurricane season in 4 months. But if you step back and look at the big picture and not concentrate on the temperatures persay (they were included for example purposes only), one could see why I have drawn my conclusions. First, the records temps indicate we are still seeing very strong troughs move off the East coast. These troughs are the
strongest they have been since the mid 80s where we saw relatively few hurricanes hit the US. due to the "troughiness" that was present throughout the summer months. if you look back over the past several months nothing has changed. These troughs are heading south with no
problem and we are almost into May. These trends are telling me that there is no reason why we are going to see these troughs hand around this summer. They won't be as strong of course but there is nothing out there that is indicating these troughs are going away anytime soon.

[Andrew92]

It was 80 the other day in Michigan, and now it will struggle to reach 40 tomorrow. Last year was a cold summer for us, and I actually did wonder if the colder summer not only for us, but for much of the country, would have an impact on the hurricane season. Now, I am convinced that there is NO correlation between colder temperatures in April and what the hurricane season will be like.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

Andrew92, we're actually nearly in May and seeing these records. Yes, last year we saw troughs like this into late spring, but they are stronger this year than last year as evidentby the widespread record low temps we will be seeing in the Eastern US going into May next week. What I think we'll see this year are storms approaching the SE US from the GOM and Caribbean earlier on as they get picked up by troughs. Then as the Bermuda High strength was a fluke last year IMHO, the troughiness will persist through the summer and we'll see lots of fish storms this year. Close calls but yet again the troughs will save the U.S. There's alot of talk about this scenario despite all of the hype people are giving to this season being a disaster for the US again.