I don't believe the troughs mean a whole lot right now. If you recall, there was an extremely strong trough last August that pushed all the way into Florida which was responsible for causing Charley to take a more October like track. The trough also brought some cool weather to areas in the southeast. Look how the rest of the hurricane season turned out!
Ed
Record FL Lows At End of Apr. May Mean Slow Start, Good News
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frederic79
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how likely is it
How likely is it that this year will start as late as last year (1st named storm 2 mos. after official June 1st start of season)? Personally I think that's highly unlikely and we will probably be at "B" or "C" on the list by August 1st. If that happens and the Bermuda high remains strong, the Panhandle and points west could see one of those early storms. Obviously there are many things to consider, things we don't know now, but I tend to think sometime in July or early August, we will see a Gulf storm that bypasses Florida and makes landfall between Pensacola and the LA/TX border, maybe even New Orleans. Nothing scientific at all, just a hunch. Had the extremely early and rare monster trough that turned Charley in August failed to show up when it did, Charley very well could have wreaked its havoc further to the west, perhaps even stronger in intensity. Anyway, those are just my two cents worth.
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