Nice blob of convection in the.....

[dixiebreeze]

Caribbean this morning. Will become a familiar pattern before very long:

[James]

Indeed it will. Pretty decent flare up there.

[dixiebreeze]

A bit feisty down by PR:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
630 am AST Sat Apr 23 2005

Discussion...

Energetic...middle to upper level trough will remain located just west
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least
Sunday...before high pressure begins to build across the local area
from the east Monday and Tuesday.

At lower levels...elongated...broad surface trough/low will remain
located across the local islands through at least early Sunday.
Much advertised area of deep tropical moisture continued moving
north northeast overnight and began to interact with disturbances
rotating through the middle to upper level trough...to produce numerous
to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms that
began to move across the eastern half of Puerto Rico...Culebra and
Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands late Friday evening...and
continue to affect extreme eastern Puerto Rico...Culebra and Vieques
and the U.S. Virgin Islands at this time.

However...this area of showers and thunderstorms has shifted further
east much faster than first expected...and has currently left the
western two-thirds of Puerto Rico with only mostly cloudy skies and
some spotty light rain. This eastward displacement has greatly
reduced the likelihood of any widespread heavy rainfall and flooding
for much of the area...except extreme eastern Puerto Rico...Culebra
and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

For today...as the aforementioned main area of showers and
thunderstorms continues to slowly shift further east...breaks in the
cloudiness are expected to develop over Puerto Rico and this heating
should allow for new showers and thunderstorms to develop over the
central and eastern interior sections of Puerto Rico by late morning
and early afternoon and then spread northeast across the remainder
of the local islands during the afternoon. These showers and storms
will interact with the middle to upper level trough and local
effects...to produce at least some localized very heavy rainfall and
flash or river flooding...especially over locations that received
heavy rainfall during the past several days. These showers and
storms may linger into tonight over eastern sections of forecast area.

For Sunday and Monday...still a bit uncertain as to the movement of
this area of deep moisture once it moves east of the local islands.
Should be enough moisture lingering across the local islands Sunday
and Monday to allow for the development of a few showers and
thunderstorms...mainly during the afternoon hours.

So...although the widespread heavy rainfall and flood potential has
greatly diminished...still expect localized areas of heavy rainfall
and flooding to occur across the local islands at least for today
and tonight.

Marine...outside of showers and thunderstorms...fairly tranquil
conditions will continue across the local waters for the next few
days. We do have a Small Craft Advisory for the eastern Caribbean
waters for today and a precautionary statement for all of the
Atlantic waters and the western Caribbean.

Sju watches/warnings/advisories...
PR...Flash Flood Watch until 1100 am today for rrz001...prz002...
prz003...prz004...prz005...prz006...prz007...prz008...
prz009...prz010...prz011...prz012...prz013. Small Craft Advisory amz730.
Vi...Flash Flood Watch until 1100 am today for viz001...viz002. Small Craft Advisory
amz730.

[gatorcane]

obviously, nothing will happen with this one this time. But let's wait a couple of months and the story will change.

[george_r_1961]

Not much chance of tropical development here as upper level winds are unfavorable.

[msbee]

A bit feisty down by PR:

a bit feisty here too.
lots of rain all day yesterday and currently we are experienciing heavy rain and a thunderstorm.
we're not complaining. we needed the rain badly!