Typhoon Sonca
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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The official advisory has Sonca currently at 65 mph (1-min avg) and is forecast to reach 80 mph (1-min avg) within 48-72 hours.
WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 12.8N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 15.3N 130.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 251200UTC 17.5N 131.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 21.5N 133.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 12.8N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 15.3N 130.7E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 251200UTC 17.5N 131.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
69HF 261200UTC 21.5N 133.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
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James
- Category 5
- Posts: 1531
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- Location: Gloucestershire, England
- Contact:
From the JTWC:
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.4N8 131.1E6.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 03W HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 231633Z8 AMSR-E MICROWAVE
PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 33 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 240300Z9, 240900Z5, 241500Z2 AND 242100Z9.//
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.4N8 131.1E6.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 03W HAS CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 231633Z8 AMSR-E MICROWAVE
PASS REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z4 IS 33 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARN-
INGS AT 240300Z9, 240900Z5, 241500Z2 AND 242100Z9.//
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
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Officially, it's now a typhoon of 80 mph (1-min avg). Forecast has is reaching 90 mph.
-Mike
WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 13.4N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 15.5N 130.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 251800UTC 18.5N 132.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 261800UTC 22.0N 136.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =
-Mike
WTPQ20 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 13.4N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 15.5N 130.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 251800UTC 18.5N 132.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
69HF 261800UTC 22.0N 136.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT =
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Eye feature has formed on Sonca.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... LATEST.jpg
Dvorak estimates are now up to T5.0.
-Mike
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... LATEST.jpg
Dvorak estimates are now up to T5.0.
-Mike
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
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Officially, Sonca is 100 mph and 955mb with further deepening expected.
WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 14.1N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 16.6N 131.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 260600UTC 20.5N 135.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 270600UTC 24.5N 142.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 14.1N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 16.6N 131.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 260600UTC 20.5N 135.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 270600UTC 24.5N 142.0E 290NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
24/0825 UTC 14.2N 130.7E T6.0/6.0 SONCA -- West Pacific Ocean
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
80kts.
WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 14.5N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.1N 132.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 261200UTC 21.0N 136.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 24.5N 143.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 14.5N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.1N 132.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 261200UTC 21.0N 136.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 271200UTC 24.5N 143.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT =
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Scorpion
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Scorpion wrote:Thats 80 knots?? Couldve fooled me for at least 130 kts! I wonder whats going on?
Scorpion, aside from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, we also have the Japan Meteorological Agency, Hong Kong has another similar agency, Guam, and others. All at one point or the other each agency provide advisories over the same typhoon and always they say something different. In this case Japan says 80 knots and the JTWC says 110 knots. What is obvious seeing the visible images is that the overall structure of the system points toward a very strong tropical phenomenon of winds over 100 knots, thereafter, Japan shouldn't be an agency to rely on.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Let me clear things up on the difference in intensities between Tokyo (JMA) and Pearl Harbor (JTWC).
The JMA is the official warning agency for Ty Sonca, as well as any Western Pacific system. The JTWC is NOT an official warning agency. Their purpose is for the US Military.
The JMA, like a majority of the world, uses a ten-minute average on their wind speeds. The JTWC, like the US, uses a one-minute average.
To convert JMA's ten-minute average of 80kt, multiply by 1.14... 91kt.
Once again, as a reminder, the JMA's advisories are the official advisories for the WPAC whereas the JTWC is basically for morale use only. (They don't have to match the official WMO agencies)
As for the latest official word on Sonca... 110 mph (1-min avg) with a pressure of 940mb.
WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 18.3N 132.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 261800UTC 23.0N 138.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 271800UTC 27.5N 149.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
The JMA is the official warning agency for Ty Sonca, as well as any Western Pacific system. The JTWC is NOT an official warning agency. Their purpose is for the US Military.
The JMA, like a majority of the world, uses a ten-minute average on their wind speeds. The JTWC, like the US, uses a one-minute average.
To convert JMA's ten-minute average of 80kt, multiply by 1.14... 91kt.
Once again, as a reminder, the JMA's advisories are the official advisories for the WPAC whereas the JTWC is basically for morale use only. (They don't have to match the official WMO agencies)
As for the latest official word on Sonca... 110 mph (1-min avg) with a pressure of 940mb.
WTPQ20 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 15.2N 131.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 18.3N 132.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
48HF 261800UTC 23.0N 138.5E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
72HF 271800UTC 27.5N 149.0E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
One more comment, to say that the JMA shouldn't be relied on is false. They are the official agency, designed by the WMO. If one simply converted the wind speeds from ten- to one-minute average, the end result is more logical.
Furthermore, the experience level is much higher at the JMA. The JTWC's experience level, on average, is a few years -- at best. Forecasters rotate in and out.
Furthermore, the experience level is much higher at the JMA. The JTWC's experience level, on average, is a few years -- at best. Forecasters rotate in and out.
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James
- Category 5
- Posts: 1531
- Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2004 10:29 am
- Location: Gloucestershire, England
- Contact:
Well, the JTWC have upgraded Sonca to a 115kt CAT 4 typhoon. Here is their take:
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6N2 131.2E7.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 241716Z1 TRMM IMAGE REVEAL DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z5 IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0, 250900Z6,
251500Z3 AND 252100Z0.//
NNNN
REMARKS:
242100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.6N2 131.2E7.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SONCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 241716Z1 TRMM IMAGE REVEAL DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z5 IS 45 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0, 250900Z6,
251500Z3 AND 252100Z0.//
NNNN
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