Yikes! The Aussies may be on to something

YouTube · #1 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:14 pm

Ok, I know this is just one map from one day. But the latest NCODA SST anomalies map for today shows quite a change in the Pacific.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCO ... nomaly.gif

Almost all of the cold water toungue is now gone off of South America. Now, there is well above average water growing in that region.

It is starting to add up more and more that we just may see a healthy El Nino this season.

Why?

Dr. Landsea did say he wouldn't be shocked if a moderate or strong El Nino set in (he also said the opposite too).

Aussies give it a thumbs up too.

SOI is negative and has been for a while overall. Look at the 90 day- well negative.

WWB continues in west Pac according to last update from BOM.

And now, the water temps off of South America are climbing rather quickly- just by looking at day to day maps.

Imagine what will happen to the public's perception of Bill Gray et al if next month they, along with NOAA, announce that due to an enormous El Nino, the 2005 hurricane season will NOT be active- but quite the opposite. After all of the hype leading up to now- an El Nino would do more than just bust the latest forecast from Bill Gray and Tropical Storm Risk.

Maybe this warming is temporary- we shall see. But the odds seem to be shifting in favor of El Nino.

cyclonaut · #2 Postby **cyclonaut** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:16 pm

Thats is quite a change from last week.

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:18 pm

vacanechaser · #4 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:18 pm

well thats just horrible!!!

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:19 pm

Looking at the current SSTs I see no evidence of an El nino. Until I see some evidence I'm not paying attention to the Aussies.

#6 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:20 pm

In addition, look how warm the SSTs off the Atlantic waters are off COA. Most of the Atlantic basin is the warmest it has been for this time of year in a long time. Even if we see a moderate El nino, I don't think it will make much of a difference this year as long as the SSTs continue to climb in the Atlantic as they are.

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:20 pm

Whatever who cares what the Aussies have to say, its not like they're affected by the Atlantic hurricane season. So the anomolies are now near normal after being well below normal for several months. Does that mean theres gonna be a strong El Nino?? Definitely not. I still say there will be no El Nino this season.

#8 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:21 pm

why are the aussies so interested in the EL nino. Don't they have better thigns to do with their time on that side of the world? lol.

cyclonaut · #9 Postby **cyclonaut** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:49 pm

I think in any event we will see a situation in the Atlantic where the positives will out weigh any negatives a weak to moderate El Nino will present.Therefore we will have an average to slightly above average season.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:51 pm

cyclonaut wrote:I think in any event we will see a situation in the Atlantic where the positives will out weigh any negatives a weak to moderate El Nino will present.Therefore we will have an average to slightly above average season.

If you read my forecast at tropical anaylis forum you will see why I got to the conclusion of a slightly above season and it was because of this same factor.

#11 Postby **P.K.** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 5:52 pm

boca_chris wrote:why are the aussies so interested in the EL nino. Don't they have better thigns to do with their time on that side of the world? lol.

El Nino events don't just impact on the North Atlantic hurricane season, they affect Australia as well.

Huckster · #12 Postby **Huckster** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 6:00 pm

boca_chris wrote:why are the aussies so interested in the EL nino. Don't they have better thigns to do with their time on that side of the world? lol.

El Nino does effect Australia. I think there's a strong relationship between El Ninos and droughts down there, so there is a legitimate reason for them to have an interest in this issue.

Aquawind · #13 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 6:25 pm

Huckster wrote:
boca_chris wrote:why are the aussies so interested in the EL nino. Don't they have better thigns to do with their time on that side of the world? lol.

El Nino does effect Australia. I think there's a strong relationship between El Ninos and droughts down there, so there is a legitimate reason for them to have an interest in this issue.

Yep..They are very interested in drought..This is really no surprise at all.. We knew this Kelvin was going to be coming to the surface and warm the EPAC with the rest of the PAC in general having more warm anomalies, but even they have been weakening looking at a SST loop wxman57 posted in the other forum.. So it is expanding warm waters and warming of the EPAC in particular but other than that the anomalies are cooling at this point in the rest of the PAC.. The kicker will be the Current stronger MJO than the one that created the current Kelvin in the EPAC and whether it creates another Kelvin before things really do cool significantly.. right now i's marginal with little other than sunlight to create additional or stronger warm anomalies..

Paul

YouTube · #14 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 6:37 pm

Believe me, I am the last person who wants to see an El Nino. I love a good hurricane- though it is a shame they hurt people and property. I just have this feeling that a nasty El Nino is rearing up and it will make a lot of us very bored over the summer- and a lot of early forecasts for an active season null and void.

I hope I am wrong. I really do.

canegrl04 · #15 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 7:52 pm

I am alittle fearful of a nasty el nino situation,too. If it is a near repeat of 1997 ,theres big trouble ahead for EVERYONE around the world :eek:

Lets see what the SST's for the Pacific are looking like in mid May

Scorpion · #16 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 8:04 pm

Nothing even close to 97. If anything the most it will be is a weak one.

Derek Ortt · #17 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Apr 24, 2005 8:09 pm

atlantic waters being warm are not all that significant. If we get a nino, we'll see maybe 2 or 3 MDR storms this year, which is typical of an el nino year. You simply cannot get development with a persistent 30KT of shear

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:39 am

Yes Derek I agree with you. To much shear and the Atlantic season will be below average. When will we know if there is going to be an el nino or not. By the end of May? End of June?

donsutherland1 · #19 Postby **donsutherland1** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 8:46 am

Boca_chris,

Keep an eye on the MEI. If the MEI remains high, even without a full-fledged El Niño, tropical activity could be lower than normal. Of the 14 seasons since 1950 when MEI statistics were available, 13/14 with a seasonal average MEI of +0.600 or above saw 9 or fewer named storms.

StormChasr · #20 Postby **StormChasr** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 11:11 am

My probability forecasts are looking a little better. Remember, I said that the possibility of a moderate Nino were good two months ago. So, I will stick with 11/5/2--average to slightly above average year.

BTW, haven't been around cuz of an eye injury. My doctor told me to take it easy with the 'puter and not strain. Had a corneal injury. (OUCH)

Yikes! The Aussies may be on to something

Yikes! The Aussies may be on to something

El Nino

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