Sonca has passed its peak. The latest visual imagery shows that the eye has filled and the central core is less symmetric. In addition, a definite dry slot has worked into the SE quad of the storm. Since the storm is also showing a clear cut recurvature signature, this may the beginnings of the initial stages of the extratropical transition.
Steve
Typhoon Sonca
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
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Here's the latest from the metsat section at AFWA...
TPPN10 KGWC 250040
A. TYPHOON 03W (SONCA)
B. 24/2331Z (33)
C. 15.9N/5
D. 131.1E/6
E. FOUR/GOES9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS -24/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
15A/ PBO BNDG EYE/ANMTN. EYE FTR THAT WAS SEEN PREVIOUSLY HAS WKND AND IS NO LONGER AS PRONOUNCED AS BEFORE. CNVCTN ASSOCD WITH BNDG EYE NOW WRAPS AT 1.65 GIVING A CF OF 4.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO GIVE A DT OF 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET AGREES...BUT PT YIELDS A 5.0.
AODT: T6.0 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)
LAURENTI
TPPN10 KGWC 250040
A. TYPHOON 03W (SONCA)
B. 24/2331Z (33)
C. 15.9N/5
D. 131.1E/6
E. FOUR/GOES9
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS -24/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
15A/ PBO BNDG EYE/ANMTN. EYE FTR THAT WAS SEEN PREVIOUSLY HAS WKND AND IS NO LONGER AS PRONOUNCED AS BEFORE. CNVCTN ASSOCD WITH BNDG EYE NOW WRAPS AT 1.65 GIVING A CF OF 4.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO GIVE A DT OF 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET AGREES...BUT PT YIELDS A 5.0.
AODT: T6.0 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)
LAURENTI
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
940hPa, 85kts. (99kts 1 minute averages if I'm using the right conversion factor)
WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 17.1N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 20.7N 135.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 270600UTC 24.0N 141.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 280600UTC 27.5N 149.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 17.1N 132.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 160NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 20.7N 135.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 270600UTC 24.0N 141.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 280600UTC 27.5N 149.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT =
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
75kts (10 min averages)
T0503 (SONCA)
WTPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 22.5N 136.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 27.5N 145.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 280600UTC 30.0N 154.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 290600UTC 31.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
T0503 (SONCA)
WTPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0503 SONCA (0503)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 22.5N 136.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 220NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 27.5N 145.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
45HF 280600UTC 30.0N 154.0E 170NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
69HF 290600UTC 31.0N 165.0E 270NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Here's the official bulletin. 80 mph with a pressure of 975 mb.
ZCZC 883
WTPQ20 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 25.2N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 29.5N 153.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 29KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 281800UTC 31.0N 164.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN
ZCZC 883
WTPQ20 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0503 SONCA (0503) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 25.2N 141.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 29.5N 153.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 29KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 281800UTC 31.0N 164.0E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
NNNN
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