Louisiana may not be so lucky in 2005

[cajungal]

I read an interesting article on Channel 4 New Orleans weather forum. If we would of not received such an unusual cold front in July, we could of been Charley's victim. We usually don't see those fronts until mid September or October. It is too early to know for certain where the hurricanes will strike this year. It is not a matter of being overdue, it is how the season's pattern shapes up. According the hurricane Alley website, anywhere from Lafourche Parish to the Florida Panhandle is shaded in red (highest risk). I am in Terrebonne Parish and shaded in orange (moderate risk). Southwest Florida is also shaded in the red. They got the east coast shaded in yellow (low risk). And usually the Cape Hatteras area is always at high risk for a landfalling hurricane.

[Anonymous]

Indeed true, but Charley would have had shear in the Gulf probably, and without enhanced outflow from the trough, without the moist tap from the Bay of Campeche, Charley would have probably been only a Cat 3 or weak Cat 4...not the strong Cat 4 Florida recieved. We will never know...

[LaBreeze]

We'll have to wait and see - gut feeling is telling me we may not be so lucky as in 2004 also. Just a gut feeling - enjoying those fronts though in the meantime. Nice and cool this past weekend.

[Steve]

Here's hoping we do. After 3 straight years of at least SOME action following decades of "little if any", I want free drinking days and holidays preferably of the Cat 2 variety or less .

Steve

[TSmith274]

Louisiana's overdue? Tell you what, I just built a camp near Buras, La at the mouth of the river. I have terrible luck. Will La have a landfalling hurricane this year? Yes, count it.

[Rainband]

You can have them.

[Rainband]

Louisiana's overdue? Tell you what, I just built a camp near Buras, La at the mouth of the river. I have terrible luck. Will La have a landfalling hurricane this year? Yes, count it.

hope you get your wish, we have had enough. Truth be told gut feelings and being overdue mean notta. The patterns and eventual landfalls do. I will do a hurricane dance for you guys if ya want

[weatherwindow]

i was very impressed with the times/picayune article of last sept during the approach of ivan.....i never fully realized how transient a landmass southern louisiana is. as mentioned in an earlier post, resident of houma may soon have a much shorter drive to the gulf ........rich

[wxman57]

You can have them.

Rainband, weren't you WANTING a hurricane about this time last year?

[Rainband]

You can have them.

Rainband, weren't you WANTING a hurricane about this time last year?

Dude after last year, I mean don't get me wrong. I like some action but after seeing what Charley did to the sw coast and the rest of Florida for that matter and having no power for days Then came Francis........ and missing work and having to load the car and unload the car and drive to work in total darkness over every piece of plastic and debris from the west coast of florida and deal with the long lines at the stations and attitudes from people who couldn't or wouldn't shower Then came Jeanne...repeat all of the above...... We were lucky, a west coast landfalling system here...we would be decimated...So after careful consideration..........I will pass... but thanks

[cajungal]

i was very impressed with the times/picayune article of last sept during the approach of ivan.....i never fully realized how transient a landmass southern louisiana is. as mentioned in an earlier post, resident of houma may soon have a much shorter drive to the gulf ........rich

I read that Houma is now 20 miles closer to the Gulf than we were for Andrew in 1992. Amazing what happens in just 13 years time. With the almost complete loss of the barrier islands, Terrebonne Parish has no protection from hurricanes anymore. Even a Cat 1, could be devastating here.

[TSmith274]

No no no, yall misunderstood me. I DO NOT want a hurricane! I just built a camp in Buras that I'd rather not have destroyed by a hurricane. I was just making a little joke about my bad luck. Louisiana cannot handle any hurricanes... ever. Our coastline would be destroyed even further. Believe me, I don't want a hurricane. Just wanted to clear that up.

[PTrackerLA]

I can still remember Lili quite well, and wondering what in the world was going to happen when 135mph sustained winds (slightly weakened from landfall) came right over my house. Luckily she weakened to a cat 2 but still caused quite a bit of trouble around here. Since then I've had a bad feeling about every season because you don't always get off that lucky and LA's luck will run out just like Florida. So bring on the season but no canes around here please!

[LaBreeze]

I totally agree PTrackerLA. Lili messed with me and I have bad memories of her here in Vermilion Parish. She took 3/4 of my roof, my entire garage and uprooted all of my trees. Not to mention the water damage that took place due to roof loss. Also no electricity for 19 days! Yes, Lili is still fresh in our minds and we don't need any activity around here.

[cajungal]

I totally agree PTrackerLA. Lili messed with me and I have bad memories of her here in Vermilion Parish. She took 3/4 of my roof, my entire garage and uprooted all of my trees. Not to mention the water damage that took place due to roof loss. Also no electricity for 19 days! Yes, Lili is still fresh in our minds and we don't need any activity around here.

19 days with no power? Wow. And we thought we had it bad with no power for 8 days for Andrew. And we live in a total electric house. No gas stove or anything. Where in Southwest Louisiana you live Labreeze? My aunt, uncle and 2 cousins live in Ville Platte. That is far inland. Way further inland than us. But, they had severe roof damage, lost a bunch of trees, and no power for 5 days. The lights flickered on and off for Lili. But, we only lost total power for a minute and a half. We lost power for a few hours; however, with Isidore.

[LaBreeze]

I live in Kaplan - in Vermilion Parish. It seemed like Lili lost some steam as she came ashore, but as she made her way into the parish she had a small burst of energy over Kaplan and Abbeville. We had so many trees and powerlines mixed together - it was the longest that I have ever been without power (the generator helped, but couldn't leave it on 24 hours).

[cajungal]

We bought a generator right after Andrew. And we never got to use it. The power came on the very next day. That was after we spent the night in Sears to get the stupid thing. LONG story. Had to spend the night in Sears with the dog and everything. I was only 16 and my dad said he was not leaving until he got his generator. So, I was stuck, I had no other ride home. We had the dog with us because at the end of August, it was very hot and humid. We did not want her die with no air conditioner.

Anyway, to this day, we still never used that generator. We had it all cranked up and ready to go for Lili. But, the power only went out for a minute and a half. And we had it cranked and ready again for Ivan, but luckily we were spared again. The power never went out for more than a few hours since Andrew. So, we probably will never get to use the generator unless we have been more than 24 hours without power.

[george_r_1961]

An area being "long overdue" doesnt mean its gonna get hit this year. I dont think the risk is any higher for LA than it has been in previous years. They key here is how far west the ridging builds and how far south and east the mid lattitude troughs make it. I think I posted in an earlier thread about the NC Outer Banks, New England, Long Island, and the Canadian Maritimes being at increased risk this year with the DelMarva, including the Tidewater area of Virginia, being at a slightly higher risk. I deliver pizzas for a living though; I do not forecast weather. Just my humble opinion

[Wpwxguy]

Thats absolutely right. You know, I live in Southeast Louisiana and I hear it every year.......I'm even guilty of saying it. We're long overdue for a significant storm. Sure, Louisiana has had plenty of storms over the last 20 years.......most very weak hurricanes and weak tropical storms. However, there has been much damage by these storms. Most of us here in the deep south feel that we are long over due for that monster storm, and sooner or later we will get it. But, your right about the chances........just because its been a while, does not mean you'll have a higher chance this go round. I've been around 33 years, and I've only seen 2 storms of real consequence that affected my area. Elena in '85 and Georges. Both did significant damage to our area. Who knows, this may just be the year!

Bill

[CajunMama]

I totally agree PTrackerLA. Lili messed with me and I have bad memories of her here in Vermilion Parish. She took 3/4 of my roof, my entire garage and uprooted all of my trees. Not to mention the water damage that took place due to roof loss. Also no electricity for 19 days! Yes, Lili is still fresh in our minds and we don't need any activity around here.

LaBreeze...you don't even want to know that I, myself, didn't sustain any damage and we were without power for only 4 hours! I could have cooked since I have a gas stove and yapped on the phone since it never went out either. The only thing that went out was the cable...and you'd have thought that was the end of the world according to my husband and kids!