Will the GOM have low,Moderate or High Tropical Activity?

[cycloneye]

IMO the GOM will be in a moderate active way but I can't say at this time in what areas of the Gulf Coast there will be more landfalls because there is not a clear pattern that has set up yet.This poll is only for GOM activity how it will be in your estimation not about where the high risk will be but if anyone wants to say about where will tropical activity in the GOM will be more high you can say about it.

[cyclonaut]

I think we'll se a couple of actuall developments in there & a couple of storms that will track there way in there from the Atlantic or Caribbean.

[skywarn]

If a weak to moderate El Nino is present during the hurricane season as some have forecasted, in past analog years with El Nino's, the Gulf Coastal areas have had major hits. I believe someone(FloydBuster?) posted a thread on hurricanes during El Nino years and the Gulf areas have seen their share of major ones during these years.

[HURAKAN]

On average, the tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico is moderate, with some years very active and other the opposite. Since this year, because of all the meteorological factors now combining the season will be average or slightly above, I predict a moderate season will prevail in the Gulf of Mexico.

[kevin]

Wouldn't the EPAC storms in the El Nino shear the bits out of anything trying to form in the BoC?

[HurricaneBill]

Storms have formed in the Gulf during El Ninos.

Gulf storms during El Ninos
1992: Hurricane Andrew
1993: TS Arlene, Hurricane Gert
1994: TS Alberto, TS Beryl, TS Gordon
1997: Hurricane Danny
2002: TS Bertha, TS Fay, TS Hanna, Hurricane Isidore, Hurricane Lili

[weatherwindow]

a couple of questions for the board and the archival minded ....is the GOM more or less sensitive to the impacts of an el nino than the MDR(tropical atlantic, caribbean) .....and for the researchers(yes, you Bill), how does the average GOM season(GOM genesis only,not storms in transit from the atl and carib) compare in el nino and la nina years . i am curious if a pattern exists in the GOM that may differ from the MDR.........thanks in advance, rich

[hcane]

Using the CPC definition
Warm and cold episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v2 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on the 1971-2000 base period. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

tropical cyclone formation in the GOM - per the NHC tracks

WARM COLD NEUTRAL
1951 0 1950 3 1952 0
1957 5 1954 2 1953 1
1963 1 1955 1 1958 1
1965 0 1956 3 1959 5
1969 1 1964 1 1960 3
1972 0 1970 0 1961 1
1976 2 1971 1 1962 0
1977 2 1973 0 1966 1
1982 3 1974 1 1967 1
1986 2 1975 0 1968 1
1987 1 1983 1 1978 3
1991 0 1988 2 1979 2
1994 1 1995 2 1980 1
1997 1 1998 4 1981 0
2002 3 1999 2 1984 1
2004 1 1985 2
1989 2
1990 0
1992 0
1993 1
1996 1
2000 1
2001 3
2003 5

I don't really see a significant difference

[hcane]

I messed up the posting.... above, 1985 and all of the years after 2003 under warm are actually neutral years ....

[hcane]

all the years after 2004 in the warm column should be in the neutral column ....

[MGC]

I doubt we have two Cat 4's in the GOM this season like 2003. Hopefully the GOM won't see a major cane, we need a break.....MGC

[skywarn]

Going back further in time two other hurricanes that affected the Gulf Area during El Nino years were Hurricane Camille 1969 & Hurricane Betsy 1965. I also believe Hurricane Audrey formed during an El Nino year.

[CaneCurious]

My husband and I actually had this conversation on the drive home from downtown New Orleans yesterday evening. We both think that 2005 is going to be an active GOM season and SE LA, New Orleans in particular, is going to have to stay on its toes.

[Anonymous]

My HYPOTHETICAL for the Gulf:

Bret
July
Cat 1 into Southwest Florida

Emily
August
Cat 4 into North Texas

Franklin
August
Tropical Storm into Mexico

Gert
September
Cat 4 into Louisiana

Jose
September
Cat 4 into Mexico

Katrina
October
Tropical Storm into Panhandle

[frederic79]

While I don't think the Gulf will see four major storms, I feel there will be one or two somewhere on the coast from the Panhandle west. This depends, of course, on the location and strength of the Bermuda high come August. However, we all know it only takes one to severely impact a given area. I'm going out of limb to say - watch out New Orleans and surrounding areas. Betsy was 40 years ago and that's a long time. Odds are sooner or later your levies will be tested again, not to mention evacuation procedures. Nothing scientific, just odds and a hunch. I hope I'm wrong. Go Saints!

[Yankeegirl]

North Texas? As in where? We need some rain!! lol..

[Anonymous]

Bret...develops in Gulf
Emily..develops in Caribbean
Franklin...develops in Gulf
Gert...develops in Atlantic
Jose...Develops in Caribbean
Katrina...develops in Gulf

[southerngale]

It would be impossible for a hurricane to ever make landfall in North Texas. Impossible.

[BayouVenteux]

It would be impossible for a hurricane to ever make landfall in North Texas. Impossible.

Just a hunch, but I'm guessing Floydbuster is referring to what locals over your way call "southeast Texas", i.e. the area from around Houston/Galveston over to the Golden Triangle, perhaps?

[Anonymous]

The Port Arthur area.