Will the GOM have low,Moderate or High Tropical Activity?

[vbhoutex]

The Port Arthur area.

He's pointing at you SG!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

I'm thinking the NW gulf will have more activity this year since it's been fairly quiet for the past 2 years.

[BayouVenteux]

"Golden Triangle" is an old nickname for the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area.

[vbhoutex]

I'm thinking the NW gulf will have more activity this year since it's been fairly quiet for the past 2 years.

If the latest front is any indication of "patterns" to come then my thoughts are unfortunately starting to look correct. It is laying in a more E-W than a NE-SW orientation(as they did most of last year). That is part of what kept the Western GOM storm free last year. I'm not very confident that will be the case this year, even though I could easily handle that.

[Anonymous]

The Port Arthur area.

He's pointing at you SG!!!!!

In my hypothetical forecast, I have Hurricane Emily, a Category 4 hurricane hitting Sabine Pass, TX.

[southerngale]

Yeah, I knew what he meant but I always think it's funny when people say North Texas when referring to a hurricane landfall. I live here and believe me, there's nothing NORTH about Southeast Texas! lol North Texas gets snow...we get heat and humidity - the armpit of Texas.

Bayou...we even have a Golden Triangle song that gets sung in a commercial for the area. hehe
It's actually a catchy tune, or maybe I'm just used to it since I've grown up hearing it.

[southerngale]

The Port Arthur area.

He's pointing at you SG!!!!!

In my hypothetical forecast, I have Hurricane Emily, a Category 4 hurricane hitting Sabine Pass, TX.

Lovely.

[Anonymous]

I say two majors for the USA this season, both Category 4's. Emily, 150 mph at Sabine Pass, TX and Gert, 145 mph in Hallandale, FL and then 140 mph at Grand Isle, LA.

[HouTXmetro]

That would be scary if a cat 4 took aim at the Upper Texas Coast. IT would be pure madness trying to get prepared and evacuating everyone.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking the NW gulf will have more activity this year since it's been fairly quiet for the past 2 years.

If the latest front is any indication of "patterns" to come then my thoughts are unfortunately starting to look correct. It is laying in a more E-W than a NE-SW orientation(as they did most of last year). That is part of what kept the Western GOM storm free last year. I'm not very confident that will be the case this year, even though I could easily handle that.

What do you mean VB? Doesn't the fact that strong fronts are still pushing through this time of year mean that we could have July/August fronts like last year which protected us? I'm no expert but I don't recall strong fronts pushing through Houston this time of year.

[vbhoutex]

You are right that we are still getting fronts that are stronger than normal here.

What I am referring to is the fact that those fronts, at least a couple of the last ones, have come through paralleling the coast, iow the orientation of the frontal line is E-W as opposed to NE-SW which was predominate last year and what helped protect the Western GOM. If the fronts/troughs continue in the E-W orientation they are less likely to penetrate the GOM imo and would allow the storms to come further West possibly and if they do penetrate past the coast they still would possibly steer the storms on a more westerly course, especially if the stronger portion of the front or High pressure ridge behind the front is furhter East.

[kevin]

In my hypothetical there are 0 tropical cyclones and weather nuts riot in the streets.

[vbhoutex]

In my hypothetical there are 0 tropical cyclones and weather nuts riot in the streets.

ROFLMAO!!!! And I won't even say who would be leading the riot!!!

[HouTXmetro]

You are right that we are still getting fronts that are stronger than normal here.

What I am referring to is the fact that those fronts, at least a couple of the last ones, have come through paralleling the coast, iow the orientation of the frontal line is E-W as opposed to NE-SW which was predominate last year and what helped protect the Western GOM. If the fronts/troughs continue in the E-W orientation they are less likely to penetrate the GOM imo and would allow the storms to come further West possibly and if they do penetrate past the coast they still would possibly steer the storms on a more westerly course, especially if the stronger portion of the front or High pressure ridge behind the front is furhter East.

Ok, I understand.

[Johnny]

Our Spring here in Southeast, Texas has been fairly dry and from the looks of things, not too much relief is in sight. Our spring weather is running out of time and our butt scorching summers are just around the corner. This adds up to a drought for us along the Texas coast. Also, I know alot of guys who have hunting leases down in South, Texas and things are pretty darn dry down there right now. If we get very little rain over the next two months then I will be hoping for some type of tropical system. Sure, a cat 3 or 4 storm won't be welcomed with open arms for sure but I'm hoping for a tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane. The best case scenario would be a tropical depression. Trust me, I think we are gonna need it.

[cajungal]

I say two majors for the USA this season, both Category 4's. Emily, 150 mph at Sabine Pass, TX and Gert, 145 mph in Hallandale, FL and then 140 mph at Grand Isle, LA.

I hope that does not hold true, Floydbuster. A Cat 4 and you kiss Grand Isle goodbye. Even though my gut tells me that if it does not happen this year, it will happen soon or later. Grand Isle has always been a ticking time bomb. Hurricane Betsy almost destroyed the island. With the erosion and constant brushes with storms, there is not much beach left. If a hurricane hits Grand Isle, us here in the Houma-Thibodaux area will still be on the weak side of the storm. Betsy hit Grand Isle, but her eye was 40 miles across. So, it swallowed Houma and Thibodaux whole. Houma and Thibodaux both got winds around 130 mph. And that was almost 40 years ago. Just imagine if another Betsy hits this year, we are a lot closer to the Gulf now.

[cyclonaut]

If this hurricane is still a CAT 4 in North Texas I dont want to know what it was before landfall.

[BayouVenteux]

If a hurricane hits Grand Isle, us here in the Houma-Thibodaux area will still be on the weak side of the storm. Betsy hit Grand Isle, but her eye was 40 miles across. So, it swallowed Houma and Thibodaux whole. Houma and Thibodaux both got winds around 130 mph. And that was almost 40 years ago. Just imagine if another Betsy hits this year, we are a lot closer to the Gulf now.

Weak side / strong side all depends on the forward movement as well, CG. Betsy's eye was 40 miles wide when it moved inland and it did indeed encompass the entire Houma/Thibodaux area in its diameter. But in addition to that, the rapidly moving storm took a northwesterly path, roughly paralleling Bayou Lafourche, from Barataria Bay all the way into Ascension Parish. A storm comparable to Betsy in strength, track, and forward speed would pack a right front quadrant that would cause far greater damage in SE Louisiana than what occured in '65 were it to happen this season or in the future.

[Anonymous]

If this hurricane is still a CAT 4 in North Texas I dont want to know what it was before landfall.

It is quite common to have Charley-type stregthening up to landfall Cat 4's in the Gulf in August. As you see in my hypothetical "Hurricane Emily" does not rapidly deepen, but reaches 150 mph on a steady strengthening.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Worst possible scenario for Gulf of Mexico:

A. Tropical depression forms in south central Gulf of Mexico and maintains course towards New Orleans.

B. About 24 hours before landfall, the storm undergoes explosive deepening from a strong tropical storm to a Category 5, similar to what happened with the 1935 Labor Day storm before it struck the FL Keys.

C. The Hurricane strikes New Orleans.

Second- worst situation: same thing happens to Tampa, Third-worst: Houston.