Invest 92P (TD 17F)

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0
167.6E0 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4 169.1E7, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLE-
WARD OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F [1008HPA] NEAR 12S 168W AT 270600UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-9 IR ANIMATION. SST AROUND THE
SYSTEM ABOUT 30C. CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANISED BUT COLD TOPS HAVE
INCREASED IN AREA NEAR THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF A 250HPA OUTFLOW IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE 17F FURTHER SOUTHWARDS INTO A REGION OF
STRONGER WIND SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

27/1525 UTC 12.8S 169.4E T1.0/1.0 92P -- South Pacific Ocean


Invest 92P has become much better organized over the last 24 hours, but according to Fiji, strong wind shear could affect the system's future. Anyway, if in the next 24 hours the system is not affected by shear, it has a good shot to develop into a recognizable tropical cyclone if the current trend of organization continues.

[senorpepr]

Shear or not, it's still a pretty impressive feature for this time of year. (Mind you that late April in this part of the world is comparable to late October.)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F [1007HPA] NEAR 14S 174E AT 280600UTC MOVING
EAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-9 IR ANIMATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND THE SYSTEM ABOUT 30C. THERE HAS BEEN NO
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTION ORGANISATION AROUND THE SYSTEM OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE WEST OF A
250HPA OUTFLOW IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
DISAGREE ON INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF 17F BUT MOVE IT FURTHER INTO A
REGION OF STRONGER WIND SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBIITY THAT 17F MAY MOVE FURTHER EAST AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE
INFLOW BAND OF 14F AND ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE AREA WHERE
14F IS LOCATED.

DEVELOPMENT NOW BECOMES LESS LIKELY.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S4
169.1E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S5 171.1E0, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

INVEST 92P STILL HASN'T GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ORGANIZATION PERIOD, THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL LOW BUT NOTHING MORE. IT SEEMS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17F [1007HPA] NEAR 13S 169.5E AT 290600UTC SLOW
MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-9 IR
ANIMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND THE SYSTEM ABOUT 30C.
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC BUT THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED BENEATH A DIFFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER 250HPA RIDGE IN A LOW
TO MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON
INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT OF 17F BUT HAVE IT MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
INTO A REGION OF STRONGER WIND SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW BUT 17F MAY
DEVELOP FURTHER AS A HYBRID SYSTEM IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IF IT
MOVES SOUTH.

DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY!