Too Many Complacent People in South Florida

[Javlin]

Very well done WX57 easy to understand.Now can you post sites for NAO and PDO numbers.

[Derek Ortt]

westward moving storms usually intensify over the mountains of eastern cuba, just due to PV conservation. The smaller mountains require that the vorticity increased; thus, we almost always see a 10-15KT increase in winds over E Cuba

[vbhoutex]

westward moving storms usually intensify over the mountains of eastern cuba, just due to PV conservation. The smaller mountains require that the vorticity increased; thus, we almost always see a 10-15KT increase in winds over E Cuba

???? What am I missing and/or not understanding here? I have seen many storms lose strength over Eastern Cuba. I realize that the "mountains" there are nothing like what the storms encounter on Hispaniola, but I can't think of many, if any TC's that I have seen intensify while over land in Eastern Cuba. Admittedly, the minute they even get close to the coast that process does begin in earnest unless there are other mitigating factors involved.

[gatorcane]

Yes, I've seen those websites and those pics grab my attention

[cyclonaut]

I have heard this somewhere before about hurricanes intensifying over E.Cuba..Quite honestly I don't buy it!Mountains are notorious for disrupting circulations & dont see how they would aid in intensifying a hurricane.

[bosag]

My inlaws were here w/ us for Jeannie, they watched our roof collapse into our family room. After the storm I asked them. "Still Wanna Move Down Here?" (Theyve been pondering the thought and have since gotten serious about it). Their answer w/out hesitation was: Absolutely!.

I guess their plan is to buy a house on the central-northwest coast, so if a storm came we could go there and vice versa, which makes sense in a way. Barb

[HouTXmetro]

I also think people in Houston are complacent also in regards to a strong Hurricane. We all know there is a risk in flooding. But if a powerful Hurricane approached Houston, I think most Houston residents will stay put. We have not had a bonafied Hurricane in over 20 years and most residents outside of flood proned areas don't realize the destructive damage of Hurricane force winds. It would be a major disater if cat 3+ cane took a direct path through the city. Too many frail homes and towering trees here.

[gatorcane]

Yes, the development along the coast does worry me in Southern Texas as much as Southern FL...

[caneman]

[quote="boca_chris"]I just had a brief conversation with somebody regarding the fact that South Florida is overdue for another major hurricane. His comment was that "I've lived here [Ft. Lauderdale] since 1963 and had to use my Hurricane shutters once for Andrew. 2004 aside, South Florida is protected by the Bahamas and the larger islands to the South. More storms affect the Carolinas."

This guy better get a clue. Show him so Hurricane history. Heck, if he didn't learn anything from last year even though he wasn't directly affected, it may not do any good at all to talk to him. Cause even if you weren't directly affected in FLorida you almost certainly would have known someone who was.

[HouTXmetro]

Yes, the development along the coast does worry me in Southern Texas as much as Southern FL...

We have alot of Old-negelected wooden homes in the Houston inner city amongst some very tall top-heavy trees. Even the new homes wich are made of a combination of brick and panel sideing don't seem sturdy at all. It's like they throw these new neighborhoods and homes up in weeks. What are most of the homes in Miami made of, brick or wood? I would imagine the new construction codes in Miami or much stricter there than in Houston. The thought of such a major storm hitting Houston, Miami, Tampa and New Orleans is beyond frightning.

[vbhoutex]

I also think people in Houston are complacent also in regards to a strong Hurricane. We all know there is a risk in flooding. But if a powerful Hurricane approached Houston, I think most Houston residents will stay put. We have not had a bonafied Hurricane in over 20 years and most residents outside of flood proned areas don't realize the destructive damage of Hurricane force winds. It would be a major disater if cat 3+ cane took a direct path through the city. Too many frail homes and towering trees here.

You got that right. 1983 with Alicia was a wholesale cleaning for Houston and she was a low end Cat3 at landfall. Where you live I would guess probably got Mid Cat2 winds because where i live in NW Houston had mid Cat1 winds sustained with higher gusts in a few squalls. Nothing near that since then. And our population has increased substantially since then and a lot of it is closer to the coast where the stronger winds would be. Evacuation of the areas South of the city will have to begin very early for it to be anywhere near successful.

[Derek Ortt]

Elena and Georges. Elena actually formed over E Cuba

Storms that intensify over E Cuba are wetward moving storms. The PV equation is (f+zeta)/h (f is planetary vorticity, zeta is relative, and z is depth of vortex. Over E Cuba, the mountains are only about 1.5km, compared to about 3 over Hispaniola. This provides a 1.5km increase to the vortex depth, forcing zeta to increase as f is relatively constant

[Derek Ortt]

a quick heads up about Alicia and not good news at all for Texas.

Looking through the report, the basis of 100KT winds at landfall is utter nonsense by today's science

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim02.gif

if that is 115 m.p.h. at 850mb thats 100KT at 850mb, whch equates to only about 80-85KT at the surface. If that was 115KT aloft, then the surface winds would be 90-95KT. However, the fact remains that there is ZERO evidence suggesting Alicia was a category 3 hurricane at landfall.

[cyclonaut]

I think what people saw occur in Miami-Dade County with Andrew will not happen again down here to that extent..The building codes are much more tougher & enforced regularly.We will see significant damage when the next Andrew comes a calling due to the nature of the storm but the devastation we saw with Andrew was partly the blame of Andrew & mostly the blame of shotty construction & lack of code enforcement.Since Andrew most new developments are built strong & subject to almost daily inspection.. I am not to worried about the buildings that were built in the 40s-60s because they were constructed during a time when hurricanes were relatively common & so with that in mind these buildings are just as or even stronger than todays newly built homes.

I feel safe in the post Andrew stuctures or structures built mid 20th century but anything built in between those periods I would be concerned & the next major storm will point out those weaknesses.

[BocaGirl]

I just had a brief conversation with somebody regarding the fact that South Florida is overdue for another major hurricane. His comment was that "I've lived here [Ft. Lauderdale] since 1963 and had to use my Hurricane shutters once for Andrew. 2004 aside, South Florida is protected by the Bahamas and the larger islands to the South. More storms affect the Carolinas." I have a feeling many think the same down here. I want to get this IMPORTANT fact out to people for those who live in South Florida or even Florida for that matter:

The 1960s till last year has been a relatively quiet period for South Florida but if you look back between the 1930s-1950s, Florida was hit by a major hurricane once every 2 years and hit from every direction.

The signs are that we are moving into another active era again

Boca Chris,

After last year's experience with both Hurricane Frances and Jeanne, most of the people I know here in the Boca Raton area are very aware of the chance for another hurricance strike and aren't complacent at all. Just about everyone has a story about losing power for some amount of time or damage to homes and property. And everyone remembers the horror of driving without the benefit of traffic lights for what seemed to be forever after both storms had blown through. Complacent? I don't think so.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[depotoo]

don't count on the building codes - the boom here has caused the inspectors to miss much and no one should take it for granted that their home will withstand the cat they are told it will. look at channel 5 here in palm beach - their building was supposed to handle a 5 and with jeanne or francis-can't remember which- they lost part of the roof! do not assume anything guys! our home has a faulty foundation that the inspectors did not catch - only by accident did we! after the fact!

[gatorcane]

bocagirl...the scary thing about last year was that those two hurricanes were more than 75+ miles north of South Palm Beach County and South Florida was on the side with the westerly windflow of the land. Imagine a hurricane hitting in Broward or northern Dade with hurricane force+ winds out of the East

[gatorcane]

depotoo, I agree 100%. It's easy to say that a building is up to code but when it is tested, that is another story. If a category 5 hurricane comes through South Florida metro Palm Beach-Miami-Dade, I will bet you the damage will far exceed Andrew. First, it's affecting a more densely populated area so the chances of destruction are higher. Second, you would see many cases where the building codes did not verify. It would be a disaster here.

[Derek Ortt]

There were major flaws in the studies regarding the building codes being at fault during Andrew.

1. The Andrew damage was compared to that of Donna. IDIOTIC with us knowing that Andrew was a category 5 hurricane. It was appropriate at the time, but now, we know that Andrew should have been compared with the 1935 cane and Camielle (although IMO, Andrew did have higher winds than Camielle), and thats it. Andrew should have done more damage than Donna did since it was at least 25KT stronger.

2. The damage in South Miami, which received cat 3-4 winds was only moderate, similar to Cayman in Gilbert. The same held true for Coral Gables. This proves that the region could withstand a strong 3 or a weak 4 just fine.

3. The damage came in the well-documented streaks of winds close to 200 m.p.h. I dont care how strong the codes are, you're not going to withstand a constant strong F-3 to weak F-4 tornado.

4. Cayman has codes even more stringent than Miami, yet Ivan totally leveled the island.


In short, the codes were fine for Andrew, only the regions that experienced the category 5 winds were leveled, and in these areas, only the regions experiencing the enhancing streaks were leveled. Most of the region only sustained moderate damage. I don't see how we can do any better this time around and with the increased development, the next time, especially if this hits the center of the city and is larger so the surge goes into the center of Lauderdale, we're going to see the damage in the hundreds of billions. (Damage is always greater than the projections). Not to mention, that a WNW track would also take out Ft Myers and re-arrange Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte one more time

[wxman57]

I also think people in Houston are complacent also in regards to a strong Hurricane. We all know there is a risk in flooding. But if a powerful Hurricane approached Houston, I think most Houston residents will stay put. We have not had a bonafied Hurricane in over 20 years and most residents outside of flood proned areas don't realize the destructive damage of Hurricane force winds. It would be a major disater if cat 3+ cane took a direct path through the city. Too many frail homes and towering trees here.

You got that right. 1983 with Alicia was a wholesale cleaning for Houston and she was a low end Cat3 at landfall. Where you live I would guess probably got Mid Cat2 winds because where i live in NW Houston had mid Cat1 winds sustained with higher gusts in a few squalls. Nothing near that since then. And our population has increased substantially since then and a lot of it is closer to the coast where the stronger winds would be. Evacuation of the areas South of the city will have to begin very early for it to be anywhere near successful.

Actually, the last "bona-fide" hurricane in Houston was in 1949, I believe. Alicia did not produce any sustained 74+ mph wind in Harris County, at least on the south side near Hobby or the north side at Bush Intercontinental. For the most part, Houston got sustained mid TS force winds in Alicia with gusts up NEAR hurricane force.

People in Houston have no clue what a real Cat 3 will do here.