Too Many Complacent People in South Florida

[BocaGirl]

bocagirl...the scary thing about last year was that those two hurricanes were more than 75+ miles north of South Palm Beach County and South Florida was on the side with the westerly windflow of the land. Imagine a hurricane hitting in Broward or northern Dade with hurricane force+ winds out of the East

I'm trying to follow the point of all this gloom and doom. This thread was about complacency. I just don't see it.

What I see is that after last year's experience, perception of hurricanes has changed. I think most folks understand the forces of nature. Most people are more proactive this year. For example, people in my office are talking about putting together hurricane supplies, more people are getting shutters or plywood in advance and we are running many more folks through our CERT program here in Boca Raton. (Boca_Chris, how about you? Why not join our next CERT class?)

Complacency for the majority of folks is so last year. So is gloom and doom. In thread after thread on Storm 2K we can sit around and say how awful it will be if a storm hits the South Florida area. And let's face it, depending on the severity of the wind and the rain, people and property WILL be affected. But I really believe that unlike the past, most people are doing whatever they can to get ready.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[StormChasr]

'm trying to follow the point of all this gloom and doom. This thread was about complacency. I just don't see it.

What I see is that after last year's experience, perception of hurricanes has changed. I think most folks understand the forces of nature. Most people are more proactive this year. For example, people in my office are talking about putting together hurricane supplies, more people are getting shutters or plywood in advance and we are running many more folks through our CERT program here in Boca Raton. (Boca_Chris, how about you? Why not join our next CERT class?)

Complacency for the majority of folks is so last year. So is gloom and doom. In thread after thread on Storm 2K we can sit around and say how awful it will be if a storm hits the South Florida area. And let's face it, depending on the severity of the wind and the rain, people and property WILL be affected. But I really believe that unlike the past, most people are doing whatever they can to get ready.

Well said. Enough of the doom and gloom. Let's be vigilant, and practical, not unduly alarmist. We in Florida are educated, and prepared for hurricanes, and should be in ANY year, not just a predicted "active season." Remember, Andrew was in a "slow" year.

[gatorcane]

Barbara - I find it hard to believe the person I talked to is one of the few in South Florida this is complacent. I really do. I can see your CERT group wouldn't be because obviously they wouldn't be there. Thanks for the invite, I may consider making an appearance. I will agree with you that last year storms made Floridians alot less complacent but there are still too many people that aren't even thinking about hurricane season right now. Still, many that are not familiar with hurricane history don't realize how bad the 1930s-1950s was for FL. I hope we are not entering that period. I think a couple years of a period like that now and nobody will be complacent anymore.

[Derek Ortt]

wx57

I totally agree about Alicia. In fact, the wind reports received in Alicia are very similar to those observed in Claudette http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003claudette.shtml

The big difference as to why Alicia caused as much damage as it did was that it hit a major metro area in downtown Houston, albiet as a tropical storm at that point, compared to the relatively unpopulated area affected by Claudette. I hope those in Houston are ready for when cat 1 or 2 conditions do affect the area

[gatorcane]

Derek, agreed. In fact, Cities like Houton, Galveston, New Orleans, Tampa, Ft. Myers, West Palm Beach, Miami/Ft. Lauderale (and the FL Keys), Charleston, even New York would see catastrophic damage if a cat 3+ hit in the metro areas regardless of what people say about building codes.

How complacent are people in these other cities I wonder? I would imagine that they feel that Florida takes the brunt of the storms because of last year. But all it takes is one to hit one of these metro areas directly.

[sunny]

Derek, agreed. In fact, Cities like Houton, Galveston, New Orleans, Tampa, Ft. Myers, West Palm Beach, Miami/Ft. Lauderale (and the FL Keys), Charleston, even New York would see catastrophic damage if a cat 3+ hit in the metro areas regardless of what people say about building codes.

How complacent are people in these other cities I wonder? I would imagine that they feel that Florida takes the brunt of the storms because of last year. But all it takes is one to hit one of these metro areas directly.

Not necessarily. I live in New Orleans. We felt extremely bad for our friends in Florida. Furthermore, the people I know are not complacent about tropical systems - at all. We take them very seriously.

[Scorpion]

There is a huge amount of complacency here I believe. Most people think "Oh, we got our share we wont get it again for another 20 years" and "Oh, those were Cat 2 and 3 storms and the area is just fine now". They have no clue what will happen if the central core of a Cat 4/5 barrels into the center of Palm Beach/Broward County. I don't want to think about what would happen in that scenario.

[Cookiely]

If image 3 and 4 doesn't get your attention, I don't know what will. It really tells it all. A picture is worth a thousand words.

Or image 7, a plot of major hurricane tracks (only the parts of the track when they were at Cat 3-4-5 intensity) for a 25-year period when the Atlantic was in warm phase and the eastern Pacific cool:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/1944to1969floridamajora.gif">

Thanks for reminding me about the article. I had to leave before I could finish the whole thing. Image 7 was a wakeup call for all of us to get ready.

[gatorcane]

Scorpion, yes hence the point of this topic. I agree there are many people that are worried but there are also many people who think exactly like what you said. It will take another round of hurricanes to make them less complacent.

[gatorcane]

This graphic is an excellent example of my point. If we are indeed entering this phase of activity for FL, then people have a rude awakening here. The last 50+ years is nothing like what it could have been. I just don't think people really understand what has happened in history and what this could mean for South Floridians.

[weatherwindow]

derek..just a further comment on the dade county codes....you are absolutely correct in stating that the dade county codes were not the problem. even pre-andrew, sfla had the strictest codes in the nation. since the 60s, the standard in sfla was 120mph. indeed, the truly catastropic damage was associated with the mesovortices. i participated in an aerial survey on day 2 and the damage differential was stark and unmistakeable. despite the total destruction in the "fujita" swaths under the eyewall, many structures built prior to 1970 survived winds equal to or in excess of 120mph. however, many structures built after 1970 suffered inordinate damage in winds well below 120mph. the difference was not the code but the enforcement of the code in the boom of the 70s and 80s. IMO, on the margin, the truly staggering totals are more the result of lax code enforcement and inspection rather than just an extrapolation of the swaths. dade was an accident waiting to happen. unfortunately, the accident wasnt a "starter storm", but rather the real thing .....rich

[Derek Ortt]

the structures that sustained damage from winds around 120 m.p.h. should not have happened for the most part.

However, most of the reports criticizing an overall lax enforcement were erronious as ther eis no code that is going to allow a structure to escape from an F-4 tornado, which is what the swaths basically were, unscathed. This was also the problem with Charley

[HouTXmetro]

Derek, agreed. In fact, Cities like Houton, Galveston, New Orleans, Tampa, Ft. Myers, West Palm Beach, Miami/Ft. Lauderale (and the FL Keys), Charleston, even New York would see catastrophic damage if a cat 3+ hit in the metro areas regardless of what people say about building codes.

How complacent are people in these other cities I wonder? I would imagine that they feel that Florida takes the brunt of the storms because of last year. But all it takes is one to hit one of these metro areas directly.

Not necessarily. I live in New Orleans. We felt extremely bad for our friends in Florida. Furthermore, the people I know are not complacent about tropical systems - at all. We take them very seriously.

When the entire city is forecasted to become a lake I would take it serious too. Who wants to drown to death? But the scenario is a little different in most other metro areas. It's hard to get people off their rumps.

[sunny]

When the entire city is forecasted to become a lake I would take it serious too. Who wants to drown to death? But the scenario is a little different in most other metro areas. It's hard to get people off their rumps.

That is a VERY scary thought.

[cyclonaut]

I had heard reports that stated that in Country Walk during Andrew structures were beginning to fail when the winds were @ only 60 - 70 mph.These buildings were made of paneling & you could punch right through it if you wanted to.

[gatorcane]

cyclonaut

[HouTXmetro]

I had heard reports that stated that in Country Walk during Andrew structures were beginning to fail when the winds were @ only 60 - 70 mph.These buildings were made of paneling & you could punch right through it if you wanted to.

Alot of the new homes in Houston are made up of a combination of brick/paneling. Thats why I stated this area will be mess if a legit Storm struck.

[cyclonaut]

I had heard reports that stated that in Country Walk during Andrew structures were beginning to fail when the winds were @ only 60 - 70 mph.These buildings were made of paneling & you could punch right through it if you wanted to.

Alot of the new homes in Houston are made up of a combination of brick/paneling. Thats why I stated this area will be mess if a legit Storm struck.

Thats not good!

[gatorcane]

Yes, too many buildings are not up to code. Who is responsible for making sure this happens? A major hurricane hits a metro area and things will be a mess, yet there are complacent people still.

[StormChasr]

I really wish that people would cut the 1930-1960 comparisons. Nobody has any idea that kind of situation would ever exist again, and as such, it is becoming a tired refrain and an alarmist's dream. Let's see what happens in 2005, and stop -removed-, PLEASE.