Too Many Complacent People in South Florida

[vbhoutex]

I don't see any -removed- going on here.

[fci]

(bocagirl...the scary thing about last year was that those two hurricanes were more than 75+ miles north of South Palm Beach County and South Florida was on the side with the westerly windflow of the land. Imagine a hurricane hitting in Broward or northern Dade with hurricane force+ winds out of the East Surprised)

I live in Lake Worth and we got smacked by both Francis and Jeanne.
But south of here in Broward and Dade counties they have been relatively unscathed since Andrew. And Andrew really smacked South Dade and not Northern Dade or Broward county.
There IS a false sense of security down there. They really believe that they will not get hit.
I was down in Broward the day before Jeanne and there were no gas lines, Home Depot was quiet and grocery stores peaceful.
Up in Palm Beach county, 50 cars on line at gas stations, Home Depot and grocery stores mobbed.

The original post is correct and the people down in Broward and Dade think that it won't happen to them.
We were lucky to be on the west side of the two storms here in mid-Palm Beach County and we still sustained quite a bit of damage.
If a storm stikes Northern Dade or Broward both those resdients and us are in for a shock.

[gatorcane]

stormchasr, there is no -removed- or whatever going on here. The fact is that the 1930's through 1950s will happen again and people are too complacent in South Florida to accept it. Look at all of the views/replies for this thread. It's quite obvious we have an issue here.

Thanks, vbhoutex by the way for the support. The point I want to make is that we should not be complacent about the threat of having multiple major hurricane hits in South Florida over the next several years. Furthermore, the vulnerable metro areas along the southeast U.S. should pay attention as we are in the active Atlantic season for the forseeable future. Let's spread the word to lessen the complacency. People that are not involved in hurricane discussions as per this board are ignorant of what could be ahead.

[gatorcane]

Broward and Palm Beach will be hit by a major hurricane soon and I am very worried about the extent of damage that will result. If we were concerned we would be taking precautions now but I don't see many people doing that

[StormChasr]

the fact is that the 1930's through 1950s will happen again

Oh really? You certain of it? Statisticians and professionals in the field are far from sure that that is the case. Was it an anomaly, or a pattern??? Since we have a limited statistical sample (we don't have 2000-3000 years of empirical data to base our conclusions upon), we really DON'T know that it is, indeed, a "pattern." No responsible mathematician would certify that as a statistical fact, and I think it is a wee bit irresponsible to forecast doom and gloom for the next 20-30 years, based on LIMITED evidence. That article "The case against Florida" was NOT a product of the NHC or Dr. Gray. They took some of the data prepared by Dr. Landsea, Dr. Gray, and others, and drew their own conclusions. It was colated and presented by a cable TV station, and represents the OPINION of the station, supported by out of context evidence.

I prefer to wait and see what the 2005 season has in store for us, before I write off Florida as a disaster area. It is MY home, and the home of many of my friends. We're all prepared for hurricanes, as we've always been prepared. Hurricanes are nothing new for Florida---even in "inactive" years, we've seen damaging storms. So, why don't we stop the panic view, and take a more global view of the situation---Florida and the rest of the Atlantic coast has hurricanes, California has earthquakes, and the Northeast/Midwest has blizzards. EVERYBODY is influenced by weather in one way or another--end of story.

[vbhoutex]

Stromchasr, I don't think I have seen a panic view here or gloom and doom. The complacency talked about is a problem not only in S. Florida but in almost every metropolitan area that could be impacted by tropical cyclones. Some of the comments I have heard on TV or even here(someone relating their expreince)do tell me there are still many out there that are complacent or even clueless. Admittedly after a year like last year that is hard to believe, but it does happen. I see it here in Houston. I don't waste my time arguing with them either because they are convinced they are right because "it has never happened here before". NOthing wrong with being concerned about the complacency of others, but unfortunately there usually isn't much we can do to bring them out of that complacency.
As far as you comments concerning the move to a more active pattern, point taken that we don't have 2000-3000 years to go by, but that is the case with anything we talk about in the Western hemisphere since we haven't had recorded history in this hemisphere like there has been across the pond due to our area only being "discovered" about 500 years ago. Also we are not mathematicians. And lastly just as many "experts" have stated that it is pretty obvious we are moving into a more active pattern. Sure it could be an anomaly, anything can be if you take it in the right context, but the changes over the last 15 years tend to suggest we are indded moving into a more active period and that would mean Florida and S. Florida could be at more risk than previously simply due to the pattern change and the geographical fact that the peninsula sticks out like a sore thumb, similar to Cape Hatteras.

[cyclonaut]

Some valid points by stormchasr & boca_chris here.Though its true that we don't have thousands of years of records to give us a better understanding of cycles &/or lack there of.Its tough to tell if we will see a repeat of what took place in the 30s - 60s but @ the same time one must understand that Florida is a peninsula that is surrounded by very warm waters during hurricane season.In any given season there are always storms somewhere in the neighborhood,some move this way & some don't.So while we can't see for sure that there will be a repeat of the 1940s it is safe to assume that someday in our lifetime someplace in South Florida will be impacted by a major hurricane.

[StormChasr]

Oh, please don't get me wrong--I am not saying that there won't be a hurricane in South Florida. There's no question that Florida will eventually see a hurricane again--it would be statistically and meterologically impossibe for it NOT to see a hurricane at some time. What I am indicating is that 2004 was an extremely unusual event, and a repetition of that situation is almost impossible--we have to go back to 1886 to see another year in which 4 hurricanes impacted a state, and that was Texas.

All of the Southeastern U.S. is very vulnerable to storms---Florida, North Carolina (look at how many times Cartaret County has been smashed), Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and to a lesser degree, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, and even New York (case in point--Long Island). Our friends to the South in Mexico get hit with termendous frequency, as does Central America. The biggest hurricane magnet is obviously the Carribbean Islands, which get assaulted with regularity. So, we ALL need to be vigilant on the Eastern Seaboard.

[gatorcane]

Stormchasr, well-said and I agree with you. But actually look at 1933 and most of the 1940s. They were also very bad years for FL. You don't have to go all the way back to 1886. There are plenty of years with 2-3 that hit FL in one year and most of that took place from the 1930s-1950s. I wouldn't be surprised that we'll see 4 storms again but maybe a couple of CAT1s thrown in the mix.

[gatorcane]

and one other thing, most people don't know that area with the highest probability of having a hurricane with 75 miles is not anywhere in the Caribbean. Actually it is Miami-Dade. That is scary.

[StormChasr]

I wouldn't be surprised that we'll see 4 storms again but maybe a couple of CAT1s thrown in the mix.

You won't. Las Vegas is offering odds worth taking on the improbability of that. You may see one or two, perhaps, but 4??? Not again in your lifetime. That was a 500 year event, with perfect circumstances for it to happen.

[Derek Ortt]

we're not going to see anything like last year. How many years do we have the longwave pattern setting up with a large ridge off of the EC in September that has ridging all the way from the GOM to southern Canada?

As for the 75NM thing, wonderful, but is in all practicle purposes a meaningless statistic. A hurricane missing by 50NM is not going to do all that much, unless it is large and you're in the RFQ getting a surge, which won't occur in SFla anyways due to the deep water offshore.

Miami actually sees less direct hits (as defined as within 1 RMW of the center) than does Hatteras, Cape Fear and St Martin Island (by far the leaders in this category)

[gatorcane]

Derek Ortt I don't think so. Miami has the highest probability out of any City. This is the whole reason for this post. There are many people like you that think N.C gets hit more or even the Virgin Islands. But that has not been the case historically:

[url]
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurrica ... -table.htm
[/url]

Miami
26.3% (any hurricane)
11.1% (major hurricane)

Cape Hatteras
21.3 (any hurricane)
5.3 (major hurricane)

U.S. Virgin Islands
16.7 (any hurricane)
5.9 (major hurricane)

[Derek Ortt]

and I will say that you are dead wrong on the issue.

Do you actually know how many hurricanes have actually made a direct hit on Miami? The numbers you are citing are not for direct hits, but instead for passing within 75NM. There is a big difference between the two. Of course MIA will lead for systems passing within 75NM, there are 3 coastlines to contend with. Even Frances and Jeanne passed within 75NM of MIA.

The 75NM stat is, IMO, utterly worthless as it in no way tells which storms will affect the area.

Direct hits on MIA since 1960:

Cleo
David
Andrew
Irene

I know of 4 on Hatteras since 1991 and 6 since 1985. Big big difference between the two areas. Systems near Hat typically actually hit that region due to the long-wave flow, but often pass south of MIA (like Georges and Kate)

[Derek Ortt]

the VI do not get hit as much as do some other areas.

However, St Martin Island are not a part of the VI, it is part of the LI

[cyclonaut]

You may see one or two, perhaps, but 4??? Not again in your lifetime. That was a 500 year event, with perfect circumstances for it to happen.

Was it an anomaly, or a pattern??? Since we have a limited statistical sample (we don't have 2000-3000 years of empirical data to base our conclusions upon), we really DON'T know that it is, indeed, a "pattern." No responsible mathematician would certify that as a statistical fact based on LIMITED evidence.

[gatorcane]

Derek, you are the exact reason why I posted this topic. Why don't you read the attached article. The inherent flaw in your argument is that you conveniently left out the period from 1926-1959 where FL was hit far more than the Carolinas:

"A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -- with winds higher than 110 mph -- attacked Florida. ''And that doesn't include the other [less powerful] hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.

Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists."

[URL]
http://www.climateark.org/articles/read ... nkid=34765
[/URL]

[Derek Ortt]

except that I am actually in the trop met community and understand how those statistics are calculated and am aware that they do not include direct hits

Boca Chris, provide an actual list of DIRECT HITS, not near misses. I live in Dade and work on the Rickenbacker at the University of Miami, I should know that a near miss, like Michelle, Frances, and Jeanne do not do jack to this region.

I provided a list of systems that scored direct hits on MIA since 1960, lets see yours.

BTW, Cape Fear is also ahead of MIA in terms of direct hits. (Donna scored a direct hit of CF, but not on MIA)

Many of the storms (Donna, Betsy, and Georges) have passed to the south, scoring direct hits on the Keys, yet are included in the sample for passes within 75NM of MIA (which is why I hate the method used... would perfer stats for direct hits and hits where hurricane winds extended into the area)

[gatorcane]

Derek, I would have to agree somewhat with the 75 mile range. I'm not quite sure why 75 miles was used for the USA Today numbers. You are right, Miami may be ahead but that is because many storms that pass South through the straights or as far north as Stuart are counted. As far as between 1926-1959, I've looked at tracking charts from these periods and there are several storms that have hit either Monroe, Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach counties. As far as those hitting Dade specifically, I don't have an exact number. Many storms that hit didn't even have names. Does anybody have this information available?

[gatorcane]

straight -> straits. What is the Rickenbacker?