The Dry/Wet May Theory Analyzed and FL Hurricane Chances

[gatorcane]

I'm not quite sure why people concentrate on a dry "May." While this was true last year for South Florida along the east coast we must not forget that the West Coast of Florida saw lots of rain in May. Actually the west coast got into a summer-time August-like pattern in mid-May in 2004 with East-west coast seabreeze convergence that took place along the west coast with general storm movement off to the west and northwest.

What we saw in May last year was a strong ridge that extended across South Florida that caused an abnormally strong East and Southeast windflow. This flow generally keeps thunderstorm activity well west of the East coast and keeps the activity along the west coast. Typically in May we see W or SW winds that push storms from the Everglades to the East coast. The east wind pattern sets up more in July-September. Sometimes troughs that come far south also fuel the storms. None of that was seen in May last year.

What's abnormal about last year is that we saw the strong East windflow persist all summer that brought plenty of tropical rains to the west coast. In fact the flow was so strong that the west coast seabreeze often times was overpowered by the east winds and this is highly unusual.

Clearly what this indicated was that we were going to see strong ridging in the western Atlantic for most of the summer. Look what happened. All 4 Hurricanes that hit FL went around this ridge and were brought in by the strong East low and mid-level winds.

If May is rainier with less of a pronounced East wind, I expect that we may not see such strong ridging we saw last year. We will see periods of time with ridging but the chances of a hurricane in the Atlantic being in the right spot when this ridging occurs is lower (but not out of the question). The chances of a GOM or Caribbean storm are higher.

[gatorcane]

It looks like May is starting out wet here in South Florida, good news . There is decent chance of rain all week as well. A trough has broken the ridge that was in place for a few days. This is expected for May. Remember last year the ridging became very dominant by mid month which didn't allow troughs to create the scenario we are seeing in South Florida this week.

[Bocadude85]

I love how it rains everywhere but here, what gives????

[cyclonaut]

I think that trend is about to end.

[gatorcane]

yes, cyclonaut I think you are right. My prediction: this will be the wettest week this month. The last 2-3 weeks will be dry with much ridging and E windflow across Florida (especially South FL).

[cyclonaut]

For me no matter how dry it gets after this week..based on yesterday afternoon & evening & todays action I am declaring this not a Dry May.

It now looks as if another round of rain & storms is headed my way,part of the same activity that should give you guys in Boca some precip.

[Scorpion]

We were getting hammered here just a few hours ago. Yesterday was pretty intense too. I wonder whats causing all these thunderstorms.

[gatorcane]

These storms are being caused by a lingering trough over South Florida. If troughs like this continue to push into FL through May causing showers in South Florida, I would say the chances of hurricanes hitting FL from the Atlantic are less wich would be good news. It's statistically a fact. More rain in May for South Florida means less hurricanes. But the South and West could breed some hurricanes too and would still remain a problem.

[Scorpion]

Big thunderstorms firing up this afternoon. Never seems to end.