May 1st - Gulf Blob

[kevin]

Okay last night after the storms I saw that the convection had settled in the SE gulf of mexico. This isn't a low, it doesn't appear to be growing or strengthening, its just staying there. In the local weather discussion there is mention that later this week a low pressure system is supposed to come out of the gulf.

I thought for May 1st, I should do the first 'blob watch'. Just for laughs.

[Opal storm]

I think this will be moving into S FL tonight.

[James]

It was certainly a nice 'blob watch'.

It's a pretty big source of convection, and it sure is impressive there on the satellite. It's the events like these that really make you realise that the season is just around the corner.

[dixiebreeze]

It does seem like this GOM blob is not anxious to move east across Florida. Might bear some watching:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

[Scorpion]

It certainly would be interesting if it develops tropical or subtropical characteristics. I would love for it just to be an invest.

[James]

Yea, an invest would be pretty cool. I won't hold my breath for now, but if the system is still there on the satellite when i get up tomorrow morning, it'll at least prove its persistance.

[dixiebreeze]

Doesn't look like the NHC is too concerned about the GOM blob:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 01 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

..DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
30N80W 23N90W 16N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING IS E OF THE FRONT OFF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 82W-87W MOVING E. FLORIDA
PRESENTLY HAS OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS S OF 30N. WINDS W OF THE
FRONT ARE FROM THE N AT 20-25 KT. WINDS E OF THE
FRONT ARE FROM THE S AT 15-20 KT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 17N76W
22N99W 25N100W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO
THE COAST S OF 23N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N MOVING E. WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA... A LARGE
AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD FROM S MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO S FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AND REMAINING E OF THE FRONT.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

There is some cool, dry air out there, so I wouldn't look for anything immediately.. however if it persists for 3-5 days, you may see some subtropical development from it.

[Anonymous]

The shear is still very high, about 30-40 kts, however it is decreasing currently by 30 kts...however, waters are in the 70's, I would not expect much.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

70s are okay as long as there is enough latent heat. Plenty of storms have formed over sub 80 degree water. The shear is decreasing, as it shows...and like I said, don't expect much before 3-5 days from now....and even then, it would most likely just be a subtropical system.

[krysof]

it is really taking a while for sst's to warm-up, they are very slowly warming up, especially the central and southern gulf, areas just south of Florida. The warm waters seem to be creeping from the south, and southwest.

[Opal storm]

Nothing will come out of this.It will fall apart the more it moves east into FL.

[kevin]

Still some convection but shear is so strong there its impossible (to me) that anything will come of this.

[cycloneye]

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE E HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE SHORTWAVE FROM YESTERDAY WHICH BROUGHT VERY
STORMY CONDITIONS OVER THE E GULF HAS LIFTED NEWD LEAVING BEHIND
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS
PULLED UP STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO THE N TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM
YESTERDAY HAS FALLEN APART EVEN THOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF
CONVECTION CONTINUE ALONG THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY
DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF THE UNITED STATES.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE AS MUCH
EQUATORWARD PROGRESS AS THE ONE OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A NUDGE SWD LATER TODAY
DRIVING IT INTO S FLORIDA. UPPER DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS
TODAY AS THE FRONT LIMPS SWD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY OR SE OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 26N90W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ADDITIONALLY...BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FOOTHILLS
OF E MEXICO S OF 26N. UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
ZONAL THROUGH MID-WEEK SO EXPECT WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT TO
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA OR FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH
WED.


The 8:05 AM discussion.There is nothing that may open eyebrows.

[boca]

Our gulf blob is going away, darn.

[James]

Don't worry. There will be other blobs...

[boca]

I hope so because it gives me atleast something to watch.