Warmer SST's in the Tropics Doesn't Mean El Nino is Certain

[snow_wizzard]

If any of you have noticed some considerable warming of the eastern Equatorial Pacific, it is likely not an indication of another El Nino. An area of subsurface warm water, which originated in the western Equatorial Pacific a month or two ago, moved toward the cost of South America and was forced to the surface when it reached land. The warm water caused a brief spike in SST's right along the coast of South America, and that area has already returned to near normal values. The Humboldt Current is already carrying the warm water back toward where it came from.

The subsurface temps throughout the Equatorial Pacific are now at normal or below normal values, so that should be the end of that!