GOM CONVECTION FLARING UP TONIGHT.....

[dixiebreeze]

I thought it might start to decrease, but is flaring instead. Very interesting:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

Latest buoy stats in GOM --- and SSTs are pretty warm:

Air T SST Pressure Wind Dir Vel Gust Wave Ht Wave Period
42001 Mid Gulf 2 0 50 74.4 75.7 1013.7 NE 19 23 9.5 8
42002 Western Gulf 2 0 50 71.2 75.7 1016.2 NNE 16 17 6.2 8
42003 East Gulf 2 0 50 75.7 79.1 1012.9 SSW 10 14 8.2 7

[dixiebreeze]

260 nm south of panama City in the GOM at 7:30 p.m.:

Conditions at 42003 as of
(7:50 pm CDT on 05/01/2005)
0050 GMT on 05/02/2005: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): SSE ( 155 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.3 °F

[Scorpion]

Hmm SST's look minimal for development. Lets hope .

[dixiebreeze]

Marine outlook:

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-020330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2005

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT TAMPA BAY TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE E OF AREA BY LATE MON...THEN BECOME STATIONARY TUE OVER
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FLORIDA STRAITS. FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM
FRONT WED AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR 26N88W THU...MOVING NE TO
NEAR TAMPA BAY BY LATE FRI WITH FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
21N90W.

[Javlin]

The colder cloud tops look to be dying off as I see it the shear might be insurmountable.Give it a couple of days to separate from the front.

[Yankeegirl]

A blob, already?

[george_r_1961]

Gotta watch these lows that form at the tail end of a front in the springtime. If the low can break away from the front and sustain convection we may have something over the next few days. The chances while not nonexistant are very small though.

[James]

Yes, I agree. Still, some of the convection is persisting, although admittedly it isn't as impressive as it was yesterday. As others have said, persistence is the key. Shear is a concern though.