Two important updates about ENSO this week (Wed,Thur)

[cycloneye]

On May 4 the Aussies will issue their update for ENSO and on May 5 NOAA will do the same.What will they say about the warming at el nino 1-2 as grafics show? We will find out next week.These May updates are important as the hurricane season is almost around the corner and this factor is the most important one to evaluate about how the season will be in terms of activity.

[wxman57]

What we're seeing in the eastern Pacific is warming associated with an eastward-moving Kelvin wave/westerly wind burst. The warm pocket is VERY shallow, depth-wise. Below that warm surface water is a large pocket of much cooler than normal water. This cooler water is upwelling in the wake of the Kelvin wave in Nino 3/4, causing temps to drop there.

This is a very different scenario from the recent 1997 El Nino year which had a very deep sub-surface warm pocket in April (vs. cold water just below the surface in April '05). I have a loop of SSTs from Feb 1 through about April 26 which clearly shows the SSTs warming from west to east, followed by significant cooling from west to east in the wake of the Kelvin wave.

So it looks like the eastern Pacific warming is only going to be temporary. Cooler SSTs should return in May, with neutral conditions across the Pacific for hurricane season.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ssts.gif">

[rainstorm]

hard to say

[LarryWx]

I'm sticking with either a weak El Nino or neutral for my prediction. Based on data from seasons going back to 1950, my take is that either would produce about the same # of storms.
So, which one it ends up being wouldn't matter too much imo.

[cycloneye]

My prediction (Read it at Tropical Analysis forum) for a very weak el nino early in the season to neutral at the peak by august and september will stay put.I know that some are nervous about those yellows at the grafics above but I agree with wxman57 it will be a temporary event.

[cycloneye]

I'm sticking with either a weak El Nino or neutral for my prediction. Based on data from seasons going back to 1950, my take is that either would produce about the same # of storms.
So, which one it ends up being wouldn't matter too much imo.

I agree wth your statement.

[x-y-no]

I agree. There just isn't enough energy there to flip us into an el Nino. We're looking at neutral conditions for the bulk of the season, IMHO.

[cyclonaut]

Yeah I agree too.If there is a El Nino it will be the weakest most insignificant thing you can imagine.

[cycloneye]

It looks a bit more yellow at el nino 1-2 and in part of el nino 3 as above grafics show.However the warming has peaked as the warm Kelvin wave is getting smaller as time goes by.But there are cool anomalys behind at el nino 4 and those will spread eastward with time.

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

I'll certainly be interested in these updates. The warming has now become much more pronounced in the eastern Pacific (Regions 1+2 and 3) than in the past few weeks. However, the rate of warming has slowed farther west (Regions 3.4 and 4).

Changes in Regional Anomalies from the Previous Week:

• Region 1+2:
Week of April 20: +0.4°C
Week of April 27: +0.8°C (now a +0.4°C anomaly)

• Region 3:
Week of April 20: +0.3°C
Week of April 27: +0.3°C (now a +0.9°C anomaly)

• Region 3.4:
Week of April 20: +0.3°C
Week of April 27: +0.1°C (now a +0.6°C anomaly)

• Region 4:
Week of April 20: +0.1°C
Week of April 27: +0.1°C (now a +0.6°C anomaly)

[StormChasr]

There's gonna be a Nino, and it wil suprise a lot of people with its intensity--nothing like 1997, but fairly strong. Also, look at the ENSO forecasts based on models for 2005. They show a trend of extremely warm Carribbean water, but sub-normal water on the ATL Eastern Seaboard, expecially all around Florida.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

I'll certainly be interested in these updates. The warming has now become much more pronounced in the eastern Pacific (Regions 1+2 and 3) than in the past few weeks. However, the rate of warming has slowed farther west (Regions 3.4 and 4).

Changes in Regional Anomalies from the Previous Week:

• Region 1+2:
Week of April 20: +0.4°C
Week of April 27: +0.8°C (now a +0.4°C anomaly)

• Region 3:
Week of April 20: +0.3°C
Week of April 27: +0.3°C (now a +0.9°C anomaly)

• Region 3.4:
Week of April 20: +0.3°C
Week of April 27: +0.1°C (now a +0.6°C anomaly)

• Region 4:
Week of April 20: +0.1°C
Week of April 27: +0.1°C (now a +0.6°C anomaly)

That warming at el nino 1-2 is temporary don.You will see things cool slowly there very soon.

[x-y-no]

There's gonna be a Nino, and it wil suprise a lot of people with its intensity--nothing like 1997, but fairly strong. Also, look at the ENSO forecasts based on models for 2005. They show a trend of extremely warm Carribbean water, but sub-normal water on the ATL Eastern Seaboard, expecially all around Florida.

We'll see ...

I'm still firmly in the "el Nino skeptics" camp.

[Scorpion]

Odd that noone but StormChasr thinks there will be a strong Nino. Where is the Kelvin wave to produce it? Waters are cool behind the warming areas, and the warming is only temporary.

[James]

Yea, it does seem that an El Nino may not materialise. I don't pretend to know a huge amount about the workings of it all, but based on the available evidence and what others have said, I think I shall sit myself down in the skeptics lounge for now.

[cyclonaut]

I dont see a moderate to strong El Nino anywhere in the near future.

Weak......possibly???

[StormChasr]

Look at Cycloneye's charts and see the latest one above. The Kelvin wave not only raised the EPAC temps considerably, there is abnormally warm water behind---so there will be a Nino (in my unhumble opinion). I've been the only one advocating a position before--when the NHC was forecasting a "right angle turn" for Frances into Daytona Beach, I knew that was absurd, extremely improbable, and was simply NOT going to happen, and I made my feelings known.

[cycloneye]

Above is the grafic that is making many people nervous as those yellows and even a little bit of orange show up at parts of el nino 3 and at the 1-2 area.But I am not one of those nervous ones.

[canegrl04]

I used to be leaning toward el nino.Now after this report,I believe weak el nino at the most.The Atlantic will be on fire this season

[donsutherland1]

Luis,

I fully agree. Already, the warming has slowed in the western Pacific. I'm expecting neutral ENSO conditions for the July-August period and probably for most--perhaps all--of the upcoming hurricane season.