Gulf Of Campeche Low?

[TampaFl]

From NWS Melbourne. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

ROBERT

FXUS62 KMLB 020759
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WIND SHIFT ASCD WITH FRONTAL BDRY HAS REACHED LAKE OKEE
ATTM...HOWEVER CURRENT METARS SHOWS THAT THE AIR MASS CHANGE TO THE
NORTH IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE/SLOW TO OCCUR...TYPICAL OF A MAY FRONT. FEW
RENEGADE SHRA INVOF LAKE OKEE ABOUT TO EXIT INTO THE ATLC...WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OUT OVER THE ATLC (AN MCV CAN BE SEEN SPINNING UP
ON KMLB 88D WELL EAST OF MELBOURNE) IS PUSHING RAPIDLY EWD AS WELL.


[color=blue]AT THE SAME TIME...MID RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FORM OF
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/WRN GOMEX LATE
WED/EARLY THU WITH THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM PULLING ACROSS FL THU/FRI.
SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...STEERING FLOW OVER THE ERN GOMEX
WOULD VEER EVEN MORE TO THE SE...SETTING UP HI MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA/ERN GOMEX AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE GREATEST IMPACT
IS STILL AN ESTIMATED 3-4 DAYS OFF. WILL INCREASE POPS THU/FRI...
BUT WILL KEEP BOTH DAYS IN THE SCT RANGE FOR NOW UNTIL THE WX PIC
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INREASE IN
MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST AS THE OUTCOME FOR BOTH DAYS WILL
HINGE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE GOMEX STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS AOB 15KT/4FT OR LESS THROUGH 12Z TUE.
PGRAD/WINDS IN THE GFS DOESN'T LOOK NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE 5-6FT SEAS OF THE NWW3 MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BDRY AND SLACKENING WINDS
BEHIND THE INIT N-NE SURGE...ANTICIPATE IFR CIGS (STRATUS) TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE FIRST TO DISSIPATE.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDS...AGAIN MAINLY NORTH.
WILL FCST IFR CIGS THRU ABOUT MID MORNING...WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
AND WINDS COMBINE TO LIFT/BREAK UP CLOUDS SOME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 62 79 63 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 83 64 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 81 66 81 66 / 30 0 0 0
VRB 81 65 81 67 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

[James]

Hmmm, interesting. There is a reasonable amount of moist air, but shear and cool waters would probably hinder much development. I don't really know all that much about the mechanisms involved, but stranger things have happened. Something to keep an eye out for nonetheless.

[george_r_1961]

From NWS Melbourne. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

ROBERT

FXUS62 KMLB 020759
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WIND SHIFT ASCD WITH FRONTAL BDRY HAS REACHED LAKE OKEE
ATTM...HOWEVER CURRENT METARS SHOWS THAT THE AIR MASS CHANGE TO THE
NORTH IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE/SLOW TO OCCUR...TYPICAL OF A MAY FRONT. FEW
RENEGADE SHRA INVOF LAKE OKEE ABOUT TO EXIT INTO THE ATLC...WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OUT OVER THE ATLC (AN MCV CAN BE SEEN SPINNING UP
ON KMLB 88D WELL EAST OF MELBOURNE) IS PUSHING RAPIDLY EWD AS WELL.


[color=blue]AT THE SAME TIME...MID RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME FORM OF
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/WRN GOMEX LATE
WED/EARLY THU WITH THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM PULLING ACROSS FL THU/FRI. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...STEERING FLOW OVER THE ERN GOMEX
WOULD VEER EVEN MORE TO THE SE...SETTING UP HI MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE FL PENINSULA/ERN GOMEX AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.
TIMING/INTENSITY ISSUES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AND THE GREATEST IMPACT
IS STILL AN ESTIMATED 3-4 DAYS OFF. WILL INCREASE POPS THU/FRI...
BUT WILL KEEP BOTH DAYS IN THE SCT RANGE FOR NOW UNTIL THE WX PIC
BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER FOCUSED. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO AS
THE EFFECTS OF THE SRLY FLOW SHOULD BE OFFSET BY AN INREASE IN
MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS.

SAT-SUN...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST AS THE OUTCOME FOR BOTH DAYS WILL
HINGE ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE GOMEX STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS AOB 15KT/4FT OR LESS THROUGH 12Z TUE.
PGRAD/WINDS IN THE GFS DOESN'T LOOK NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE 5-6FT SEAS OF THE NWW3 MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BDRY AND SLACKENING WINDS
BEHIND THE INIT N-NE SURGE...ANTICIPATE IFR CIGS (STRATUS) TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WERE FIRST TO DISSIPATE.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDS...AGAIN MAINLY NORTH.
WILL FCST IFR CIGS THRU ABOUT MID MORNING...WHEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
AND WINDS COMBINE TO LIFT/BREAK UP CLOUDS SOME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 62 79 63 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 83 64 83 64 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 81 66 81 66 / 30 0 0 0
VRB 81 65 81 67 / 30 0 0 0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

Its possible we will get a subtropical or hybrid out of this.Could be a major rain event even if it stays cold core

[dixiebreeze]

The BOC can be a hot spot this time of year. I have a hunch the "season" will get an early start.

[LaBreeze]

The BOC is where Audrey formed back in 1957 and moved on up to SW Louisiana in the month of June - so yes, I agree it is a place that can pop a surprise on us every now and then.

[canegrl04]

I think we will see a tropical system form in the GOM before the end of May

[James]

These things certainly do happen. I can't say that I would be surprised if we did.

[vbhoutex]

This type of cyclogenesis, while not at all rare, needs a very specific set of circumstances to happen, at least in a tropical sense. I will preface the rest of this with the fact I have not taken time to study the specific "blob"/area mentioned much. The shear is going to have to go way down from what it is now for some true cyclogenesis to occur. Also we would need much warmer SST's for something to really get going. And of course it will have to start forming more convection as opposed to losing it as it has been. Definitely do not see anything "tropical" coming out of this, but we will have to see if the current blob moves more West and seperates from the current front/trough and then gets picked up and moved back East and NE along the trough or if we have a whole new one forming and/or coming in from the West or NW.

[MGC]

Nothing tropical will come of this. Too many factors working against development. Shear, and cool SST are limiting factors......MGC

[weatherwindow]

very succinct ...vb..solid analysis......rich

[vbhoutex]

very succinct ...vb..solid analysis......rich

Thanks Rich. I will be watching the area with interest since the NWS write up is by one of the best in the business when it comes to tropics. Tony does not put out something like that without a reason.

[feederband]

[Hyperstorm]

very succinct ...vb..solid analysis......rich

Thanks Rich. I will be watching the area with interest since the NWS write up is by one of the best in the business when it comes to tropics. Tony does not put out something like that without a reason.

When they say Cyclogenesis that doesn't mean tropical formation. That only means that there will be low pressure development (cold core) and it will bring stormy weather to Florida if it verifies. This will not be, by any stretch of the imagination, a tropical cyclone...

[vbhoutex]

very succinct ...vb..solid analysis......rich

Thanks Rich. I will be watching the area with interest since the NWS write up is by one of the best in the business when it comes to tropics. Tony does not put out something like that without a reason.

When they say Cyclogenesis that doesn't mean tropical formation. That only means that there will be low pressure development (cold core) and it will bring stormy weather to Florida if it verifies. This will not be, by any stretch of the imagination, a tropical cyclone...

You are right.