South Atlantic Development?

[senorpepr]

Actually, it looks worse to me. The organization of the thunderstorms is no longer there and the cloud tops have warmed. I don't think we'll see anything with this system.

http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/cgi-bin/meteosat-movie?imgtype=color-small&startdate=20050503&starttime=0030&stopdate=20050504&stoptime=0500&interval=30&D.x=46&D.y=158

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this was really a nice little storm earlier. It looked amazing to me. This is what I think for a time the convection(Little as it maybe) Was on a band on the eastern side. Now it has kind of spread across the storm.

This looks cool in appeared to have a eye like future develop.

Lets name the storms that kindly need to be down graded if this did not impress you at all. It sure doe's me!!!



This is going to take some time.

Tropical storm Grace(2003)

Tropical depression 10(2004) I know you could make a case for it being a tropical storm as it came off Africa.

Tropical depression 6(2003)
Tropical depression 7(2003)

Tropical storm Otto(2004) Yes this even kicks out otto at least to my view point.

Tropical storm Matthew

Help me add to this list.

[kevin]

I have to say it looks weak on sats.

[senorpepr]

From the moment I saw this invest in the SoAtl, I thought it look nothing more than an old polar-ish low detached from the occlusion, like the ones I would see to the northwest of the UK when I was in Europe. A lot of stratocumulus and cold-air junk. It simply didn't impress me because we're looking at SSTs in the 60s rather than something a little more tropical like in the system which you list.

[HurricaneBill]

Remember, the southern Atlantic Ocean is an extremely hostile environment in regards to TC development.

Yes, Cyclone Catarina formed and struck Brazil. But honestly, I think Catarina just happened to be in the right place at the right time.

[P.K.]

lol

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
04/0000 UTC 0.0N 0.0W ST / -- Unknown
03/0000 UTC 0.0N 0.0W ST / -- Unknown

[cycloneye]

Wow this was really a nice little storm earlier. It looked amazing to me. This is what I think for a time the convection(Little as it maybe) Was on a band on the eastern side. Now it has kind of spread across the storm.

This looks cool in appeared to have a eye like future develop.

Lets name the storms that kindly need to be down graded if this did not impress you at all. It sure doe's me!!!



This is going to take some time.

Tropical storm Grace(2003)

Tropical depression 10(2004) I know you could make a case for it being a tropical storm as it came off Africa.

Tropical depression 6(2003)
Tropical depression 7(2003)

Tropical storm Otto(2004) Yes this even kicks out otto at least to my view point.

Tropical storm Matthew

Help me add to this list.

Take it easy my friend as it's only early May.

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know where is that South Atlantic circulation at Pic above it is at the extreme right part of the pic well East of Brazil with only a few areas of moderate convection and nothing that looks to be organizing at all.



Actually still a fairly decent circulation although somewhat less defined than yesterday.

[P.K.]

From the moment I saw this invest in the SoAtl, I thought it look nothing more than an old polar-ish low detached from the occlusion, like the ones I would see to the northwest of the UK when I was in Europe. A lot of stratocumulus and cold-air junk. It simply didn't impress me because we're looking at SSTs in the 60s rather than something a little more tropical like in the system which you list.

Looked more like a comma to me than a polar low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at that satellite it appears to be a system with not that deep thunderstorms that most cyclones have. But a very nice round system with a hole right in the middle. This is a very hard time for me because its hard not to call it a tropical cyclone. But I guest I better say its nothing but a extratropical polar low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It weaken last night to a 1.5 now its back up to 2.5.

04/0545 UTC 32.4S 22.4W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic
04/0000 UTC 32.6S 23.0W ST1.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic
03/1800 UTC 33.1S 23.6W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic

[cycloneye]

It weaken last night to a 1.5 now its back up to 2.5.

04/0545 UTC 32.4S 22.4W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic
04/0000 UTC 32.6S 23.0W ST1.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic
03/1800 UTC 33.1S 23.6W ST2.5/2.5 90L -- South Atlantic

Easy my friend.Look at the times as they are from early this morning the last sat estimate and nothing more the rest of today.

[senorpepr]

"Looked more like a comma to me than a polar low."

PK- yeah, that's why I tried saying "polar-ish." You're right it's more of a mid-latitude system (obviously, since it's at 33S) than polar, but I guess I was refering to the low itself and the associated stratocumulus without regard to the frontal boundary.

[senorpepr]

Matt, yeah it does appear that it gained a little convection overnight, but now it looks worse than it ever did.

Gotta love a mid-latitude system getting people trigger-happy.

http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/cgi-bin/meteosat-movie?imgtype=color-small&startdate=20050502&starttime=0030&stopdate=20050504&stoptime=2400&interval=120&D.x=45&D.y=155

[senorpepr]

Here's a message from AFWA around 02:25am...

TPNT KGWC 040725
A. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
B. 04/0545Z (37)
C. 32.1S/6
D. 22.4W/8
E. FOUR/GOES-12
F. STX.X/1.5 -04/0545Z-
G. IR/EIR

17A/ PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET SUBTROPICAL
CRITERIA.
THIS IS THE FINAL MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM FROM AFWA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL
BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE REGENERATION.


KIENZLE/LAING

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok when the nhc upgrades a system in the north Atlantic that looks just about like this one. I'm going to say it is extratropical. Because you can't play it both ways.

[senorpepr]

Matt,

You have to look at the origins of the system. Get out of the box and look at previous data. I don't know how I can tell you anymore than I have already. This system was a mid-latitude system that had a slim chance at transitioning to a subtropical cyclone after it detached from the parent front. The systems you are refering to in the North Atlantic were under different situations. We're not "playing it both ways." We're playing it the meteorological way. This system just didn't cut it. It was leaning that way, but it couldn't organize. The subtropical systems in the North Atlantic organized different.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree it did make a good shot at it. It looks like it is now gone.

[recmod]

Matt,

If you feel that the small low pressure system in the South Atlantic qualifies as a tropical storm, what do you say about the "monster" low located over the North Atlantic south of the Azores....?



--Lou

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That area of low pressure near the Azores is extratropical.

It has a front
It is very cold core
It has not formed convection(Tropically wise through heat from the ocean)
It has never had a ST 2.5/2.5

That is with out quastion a cold core system.