Extreme warm waters in all of Caribbean now...

[Anonymous]

WOW. If we have a Charley-type hurricane again, imagine a Category 4 before Cuba.

[JTD]

Don't forget Ivan and Francis were majors before Cuba (I know Francis didn't affect Cuba but still). I think if you had a category 4 in the caribbean going into a GOM that had low shear at the time, you could easily have a major major category 5.

So, yeah, I agree with you.

[chadtm80]

Floyd just for fun do you have anything from this time last year for us to compare to?

[Anonymous]

Afraid not. What worries me about these waters, is instead of having a 135 mph north of islands like Frances, that then moves into the Bahamas and peaks at 145 mph, that by the time the storms this year may get north of the islands, it could already be a Category 5, and continues strengthening to 165-175 mph in the Bahamas.

[Scorpion]

It would be better news for a hurricane to peak farther away from land, because most likely it will arrive at shore weakened due to shear or dry air.

[BayouVenteux]

Floyd just for fun do you have anything from this time last year for us to compare to?

FWIW, here's an OTIS SST map from May 6, 2004...temps in Celsius of course...oh well, nobody's perfect . You do see some general similarities...a very warm western Caribbean and a tongue of relatively warmer water in the eastern Gulf extending from Cuba NW'ward.

[Derecho]

NCODA has the Caribbean with +1 C to +1.5C anomalies. That isn't extreme in my book.

The reason there isn't a year-round Atlantic Tropical season isn't because the water is too cold in the winter. It's because of shear. Shear defines the beginning and end of the season.

Were it not for the extreme shear that generally exists from Dec-May there would be tropical systems forming in the Caribbean year-round as it can support tropical systems, SST-wise, year round.

[kevin]

What causes increased shear, is it the fronts which come down into the tropics?

[MGC]

In the summer it is usually upper level lows that cause the shear. However, early and late in the season the UL westerlies can be a factor....MGC

[senorpepr]

I'm going to have to agree with Derecho on this... it isn't extreme warmth at all, but yes... it is above normal.

[senorpepr]

[cyclonaut]

How about those 3+ anomolies off Africa.

I swear that looks like some kind of Atlantic El Nino.

[kevin]

Methane Mike would say its the dams or something. *blinks* It does look rather interesting right where the waves will start emerging.

[gatorcane]

I'm starting to get nervous, if the waters are warming this much and there is minimal el nino we could see a very active season. The next question is what will the mid and low-level steering currents look like? Will we have a similar setup to last year with dominant highs across the Atlantic? That will be another topic of discussion.