However now it looks like a new low has formed under the convection off the east coast as well? Or did I just not noitce it there earlier?
New Low Form??
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chadtm80
New Low Form??
Ok, as has been discussed in a couple of threads here today the low in the Gulf was going to cross Florida and head up to the NE and thenn...????...??? (modles try to do something with it)
However now it looks like a new low has formed under the convection off the east coast as well? Or did I just not noitce it there earlier?
However now it looks like a new low has formed under the convection off the east coast as well? Or did I just not noitce it there earlier?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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cycloneye
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chad that low forming off the east coast is the one well advertised by the models.It tracks almost like a nor-easter and then stalls in the mid latitud area north of Bermuda.
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HURAKAN
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:That is what you call a nice looking nor'easter. Energy moves out of the Gulf of Mexico then transupports north into a low off the east coast.
It is a extratropical cyclone...
I think it would be better discused in the weather or winter forums.
I agree, the problem is that we are so excited for the season to start that we look at all swirls with potential to evolve into a tropical cyclone.
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chadtm80
cycloneye wrote:chad that low forming off the east coast is the one well advertised by the models.It tracks almost like a nor-easter and then stalls in the mid latitud area north of Bermuda.
Maybe so CYC.. However the models where showing the Low in the Gulf coast moving over florida.. Not a new low forming of the east coast..
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chadtm80
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cycloneye
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GULF OF MEXICO...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM N ALABAMA S TO THE FLORIDA KEYS INTERACTS WITH THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO WESTWARD TO A 1015
MB LOW NEAR 28N85W. COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N89W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA BY
MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRAG THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE E GULF WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CLEARING FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM W CUBA TO JUST E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT DRYING THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH WILL PRODUCE RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
The above is the TWD discussion at 8:05 PM EDT.The action will switch from the Gulf Of Mexico to the Western Atlantic.
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AS A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM N ALABAMA S TO THE FLORIDA KEYS INTERACTS WITH THE
PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE SE GULF DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR ORLANDO WESTWARD TO A 1015
MB LOW NEAR 28N85W. COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N89W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NE OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS N FLORIDA BY
MORNING. AS IT DOES...IT WILL DRAG THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY
FRONT OVER THE E GULF WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CLEARING FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF
THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM W CUBA TO JUST E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT DRYING THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WHICH WILL PRODUCE RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
The above is the TWD discussion at 8:05 PM EDT.The action will switch from the Gulf Of Mexico to the Western Atlantic.
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george_r_1961
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This would not be tropical if this was in August. This is a extratropical system formed by upper levels of the Atmosphere. It has nothing to do with tropcial. But if it where to stay over warm water for some time then yes there is a chance that it could get down to the surface.
Well put. Moreover, it likely wouldn't even exist as a strong storm if it were August as the energy needed to form a strong extratropical storm (contrasting airmasses, strong upper level, etc. winds) would likely not even exist.
I see no real warm water anywhere close to it regardless. The SST's are well below normal in the area off of the east coast and besides it is only early May. In my mind, this never was anything close to a tropical or ST threat and it has very little or no implication for an active tropical season....actually, if anything, it is indicative of hostile conditions for tropical development. In other words, if we were to continue to get these kinds of cold-core storms, I would expect a quiet tropics in this area for a good while at least.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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