SE US coastal SST's month behind schedule/6-7 below norm!

[LarryWx]

Along and well offshore the SE US coast, SST's are now, for the most part, well below normal and even more below normal than earlier!

Fro example, the SST's near and a bit offshore the GA coast are now in the 65-66F range, which is ~6-7F (~3.5C-4C) below the normal of low 70's for this time of year. I can't even recall the last time they were this cool in early May. As a matter of fact, current SST's are normal for 4/6 as opposed to 5/6. So, they are about a month behind schedule so to speak!

Today's very cool weather is helping to keep them cool. However, I do expect some slow recovery of SST's vs. the norm next week as it gets pretty warm for at least a little while. However, with SST's starting out so far below normal, it will take SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL air temp.'s at the very least for SST's to even reach close to normal by summer. Remember that normals are steadily rising too. Absent this sustained above normal air, I'd expect SST's to remain at least somewhat below normal well into the summer.

I'd think that if cool SST anomalies hold through the summer, they'd tend to hold down the potential strength of any major hurricane, especially slow moving, that may visit N FL through NC.

Any comments/opinions/SE coastal SST predictions? Thanks!

[x-y-no]

This is a function of all those fronts which have come through in the east this spring.

If it does persist, this could discourage home-brew development right off the coast, but I don't think it would have huge effect on storms approaching from the south. Also, keep in mind that shallow coastal waters can warm up pretty quickly.

Jan

[StormChasr]

It means that the waters are colder. In 2003, nothing got close to Florida, as the waters were extremely cool in August.

[Anonymous]

They will be plenty warm by July.

[Steve]

I'll say this. I was in Panama City last week and it was a freakin' iceberg. The water temps were 68 on Wednesday. It took me 3 days to get the courage up to go boogie boarding because it was so cold. I saw at most, 3 people in the water at one time and that was always in the afternoon. brrrrr

I think Joe B. was the one who noted that if coastal SSTA's started out cold and later reversed, there was a correlation with landfalls in that particular area. I haven't seen any data on that, so I don't know it to be true. But I can definitely say that the Northern Gulf might as well have been Hudson Bay last week.

Steve

[rainstorm]

air temps have very little to do with sst's, especially in the atlantic. sun angle and wind direction are the keys. there has been no bermuda high and the winds have been presistently off-shore in the southeast, causing up-welling. normally, the bermuda high will cause ese winds, pushing warmer water against the coast. if the bermuda high remains weak or non-existant, the sst's will remain below normal

[LarryWx]

air temps have very little to do with sst's, especially in the atlantic. sun angle and wind direction are the keys. there has been no bermuda high and the winds have been presistently off-shore in the southeast, causing up-welling. normally, the bermuda high will cause ese winds, pushing warmer water against the coast. if the bermuda high remains weak or non-existant, the sst's will remain below normal

Rainstorm,
Thanks for your reply. I respect your opinions almost as much as anyone here. However, I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with your assertion that they have VERY little to do with sst's. I firmly believe that air temp.'s do play a significant part, at least at times such as during the very cool spring we've had along the SE coast. For example, with air temp.'s being only in the 60's or lower during most of the last two days, imo SST's had little choice but to get stay cool or even get a little cooler. I do believe that sunshine, winds/upwelling/downwelling, and possibly rainfall are also important factors. But again, I don't buy what you say about air temp.'s.

[LarryWx]

They will be plenty warm by July.

Of course, they will be quite a bit warmer come July or even by June. Also, more than likely they will be warm enough to sustain a strong TS/weak hurricane by July imo. However, they could still easily be below normal then, thus possibly causing any major hurricanes moving across the area slowly to have a tough time sustaining the bulk of their major cat. strength, which would be somewhat of a blessing for the SE US. Nobody knows. What we know is that they're starting off well below normal, which is going to offer a challenge for them to reach normal especially if the weather remains cool. Midsummer normals are in the middle 80's, or almost 20 degrees warmer than today's SST's!

[EDR1222]

I agree that air temps do affect the water temperatures. The waters in the Atlantic are very shallow and a good week of daytime temps in the high 80's will warm the water up quite a bit. The air temps for April and the first part of May have been cooler than normal and this is reflected in the water temperature as well.

In regards to coastal upwelling, there is an article on the NWS Melbourne site that discusses it in detail as to why the water was cold at the beaches during the summer of 2003 here in Florida. Being a surfer, I remember this very well!. It was caused by a persistent onshore flow out of the southeast. When this was occuring many articles blamed a persistent offshore wind which, according to the article from the NWS is incorrect.

Link to article
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/upwelling_2003.html

Comments welcome

Ed