Pacific Northwest Weather

[donsutherland1]

TT-SEA,

Over the past four months, the 1978 SOI most closely resembled that of 2005. 1973 and 1909 ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively:

SOI:

Code: Select all

Year    Jan    Feb     Mar    Apr
1978   -3.0   -24.4   -5.8   - 7.9
1973   -3.0   -13.5    0.8   - 2.1
1909   -2.5   - 3.2   -0.3   -14.5
            
2005    1.8   -29.1    0.2   -11.2


Average Monthly Difference:

Code: Select all

         
Year   Avg. Difference         
1978   4.700         
1973   7.525         
1909   8.500         


[R-Dub]

Hey everyone! Well another blah day! Another day in the upper 60's, mostly cloudy, and that is it!! The last really wet day up here was April 16th! Only .1" from the 17th of April to the 6th of May! Sounds like once again most of the action will be south of me, we shall see! I agree with Anthony though, WE NEED MORE SUN Even with sunglasses, this bright gray glare outside day after day, I have been having headaches from it

[TT-SEA]

Don...

Its the bouncing back and forth between positive and negative that is very interesting. Going from negative in February to positive in March to negative April.

That did not happen in 1978... but it did happen in 1884.

The extreme negative in February is more like 1978. But since then its behaved more like 1884.

[donsutherland1]

TT-SEA,

That's a good point that you raise. It wil be interesting to see if May's SOI comes out positive.

[andycottle]

I believe that we will have a little ice age by 2030. It's something with our climate right now. We are on the downslope toward the bottom of the secular minimum. We had postive amplitude between 1952 and 1984. We should have less El nino in the short term furture. I believe that La nina will occur more often in the future.

We maybe will have a cold winter this year because the sunspot will be in minimum level. It happens every 11 years.

I`m not exactly a wiz here.....but what do sun spots have to do with the possibilty of this coming winter being cold?

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Solar cycles can effect the climate on Earth in dramatic ways.

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard... when you check in please read my posts at the bottom of page 267. I give you some well-deserved credit!!

[snow_wizzard]

Thank you very much TT! I have been rather impressed with the in depth research you have been doing. It is very interesting to note that yet another year that Don has mentioned (1909) was another winter that had a very cold December. In fact, Dec 1909 is the coldest December on record for the Seattle city records! I like the fact that 1953 is showing some comparison to this year also. That year was showing up very consistently in the analogs a few weeks back. Palmer had 50.4 inches of snow in January 1954, with a max depth of 38 inches!

It is quite interesting that the SOI is showing such extreme variability this year. The indices I like to look at have also been wildly erratic. The OLR anomaly for the tropics from 160W to 160E longitude skyrocketed from -31.8 in February to +5.0 in March. By far the largest one month swing since that index has been measured. The -31.8 anomaly came after a +3.1 in January. To say the least, something is up this year!

There is a good chance that the sunspot minimum will slightly increase our chances of a colder winter. It seems that sunspot minimums were marked by abnormally cold winters in the Netherlands in the past. That is one reason the reputation of sunspot minimums equalling cold winters got started. Perhaps it would be fun to run the numbers and see just how much difference that has made in the past for us.

[invisible]

I just figured out that sunspot minimum doesn't really effect our climate.

Seasonal averages for Sea/Tac Airport:
1954- 49.52
1965- 52.52
1976- 52.46
1986- 52.84
1996- 51.81
For a normal year is 52.20

All of these years were in minimum level of the sunspot.

I am sure that our climate will be impacted from the maunder minimum by 2030 because the sun will probably get weaker. There was more snow in lower longitude in north hemisphere than normal in the little ice age in the past like 1820s. It will happen every 166 years.

[andycottle]

Hope the sun doesn`t get weaker, but then again, a star can only burn for so long. -- Andy

[andycottle]

Good morning all. A nice partly cloudy morning here with a temp of 52 and humidity 76%. From looking at visable satellite, it appears that most other areas are cloudy this morning. -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

Dude, we need a pattern change...I'm tired of this 'blah' pattern. Everyday I wake up to cloudy, but mild, conditions. If it's gonna be mild, BE SUNNY! If it's gonna be cloudy, BE COOL! None of this 'in-between' stuff.

If latest GFS trends are accurate, a very wet pattern...at least for the middle of May...is about to arise. Latest models indicate a significant zonal pattern developing in about a week. Can you trust the GFS? I'm not sure at this point...the pattern looks a little suspicious for so late in the season. But I'm not saying it can't...or won't...happen.

As for this weekend, today looks to be the "nicer" day of the two...tomorrow has the possibility of thunderstorms with a diffluent flow aloft. The Southwest interior usually sees the most action in these situations. Still something to watch.

All in all, no big ridge of high pressure/extreme heat coming in the near future. Hopefully this changes as summer approaches.

Anthony

[AnthonyC]

And another thing...

I'm VERY impressed by some of the research gathered from all people on this board...particularly TT-SEA and Snow_Wizzard. It's very interesting/amazing to see these sort of trends. Can they help predict future weather patterns? I'm not sold on it...but I can't deny the possibility.

Anthony

[snow_wizzard]

My brain is about to melt, trying to make heads or tales out of what is going on this year! It is VERY rare for California to still be seeing cool and wet weather in May. There have been years with these patterns in the past, but it appears this year is taking it to new levels. Some of the fluctuations occuring in the indexes are greater than ever recorded before! I wonder where all of this is taking us.

The strongest indication right now seems to be for a cold December. There are several indices that are in very unusual territory this year, and about 80% of the comparable years had cold Decembers!

I am trying to figure out what this summer and fall may hold for us, but I keep getting sidetracked by making more discoveries of just how incredibly unusual this year really is. There is little if any doubt that we are going to witness some very remarkable weather events this year! I do agree with TT that our area has been kind of drab so far (considering what could be happening), but I would have to think our turn is going to come for some real excitement.

[andycottle]

Hey guys I`m home..! A pretty nice afternoon and early evening here with partly cloudy skies and a temp of 62. And believe or not...that has been our high temp. My low was 50. Saw some excellent cirrus clouds and a little bit of mares tails....which suggests some of the more thicker cirrus clouds are being sheared by very high winds up in the jet stream.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

A quiet day on the boards...actually, the boards have been quiet ever since winter ended.

Another 'blah' day...cloudy conditions with mild temperatures...had a high of 61F. It's partly cloudy as of now, but high clouds are already on the increase.

Looking at latest satellite pics, a negatively tilted front is off our coast. But as has been the case throughout winter and spring, the main energy is headed into northern California. In any event, a deformation band should move up from the south...though it may not reach Bellingham. As for the chance of thunderstorms tomorrow...not looking too good. Alot of the colder air aloft is moving into southern Oregon, northern California and thus dynamics should stay to the south. But the southwest interior could see a few isolated thunderstorms...depending on the diffluent air aloft. We'll have to wait and see.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Anthony...

I doubt that Bellingham will stay dry. This is a much different situation than last week. The upper low is stronger and farther north. The deformation zone should push well into BC actually. And most places should get a good soaking.

Here is the precipitation totals through Tuesday...

[andycottle]

So Tim....maybe a chance of T-Storms for the central sound tomorrow? How likely? -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

I am not very good at predicting the details around thunderstorm potential.

It is definitely possible.

Particularly given the time of year.

But it looks like the main band of rain reaches the Central Sound in the late evening... so we may not be able to rely on too much surface heating.

[TT-SEA]

It definitely looks like Monday will be much wetter than today.

Today will feature scattered showers but areas to the north should be drier. This will not be the case tomorrow.