Hurricane Season Reduction for the Eastern Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

The current hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific Ocean as we know lasts from May 15 to November 30, 6 months and fifteen days. I propose to cut the season 15 days, thereafter, it would last from May 15 to November 15, and I have data to prove that my idea is not crazy at all.

From November 15 to November 30, only 3 tropical cyclones have develop since records began in the EPAC.

TROPICAL STORM 9


TROPICAL STORM SHARON


TROPICAL STORM JIMENA


As you can infer, since 1979 no tropical cyclone has develop during this fifteen days expand, thereafter, a tropical cyclone formation during this time could be compared to a tropical cyclone developing in December in the Atlantic Ocean. We all know this happens because as the season gets older, hostile upper level winds take over the area, suppressing any possible development.

All opinions will be welcomed ...

[Huckster]

As you can infer, since 1979 no tropical cyclone has develop during this fifteen days expand, thereafter, a tropical cyclone formation during this time could be compared to a tropical cyclone developing in December in the Atlantic Ocean. We all know this happens because as the season gets older, hostile upper level winds take over the area, suppressing any possible development.

Since 1979, I think there have actually been about 6 tropical systems that either developed in December or survived into the month in the Atlantic, especially in the last few years. Maybe the Atlantic season will get "extended" to December 15 or 31 one day, but I doubt it. I doubt the east Pacific season will get cut either though.

[Derek Ortt]

I know of 5 December storms in the Atlantic since 1998 (Nicole, Olga, Odette, Peter, Otto)

Maybe it needs to be considered to extend the Atlantic hurricane season by 15 days

[tallywx]

For the Atlantic at least, isn't it based in part on the first/last date that a tropical cyclone has affected land? I'd be interested in knowing these statistics if someone is familiar with them.

[Aslkahuna]

Forgot Hurricane Winnie in 1983 which was during the 4-7 December timeframe plus there were two disturbances originating in EPAC that became named storms in CENPAC in late November- Iwa (until Iniki, HI's worse hurricane hit) and Paka which entered WPAC becoming a STY that blitzed Guam big time. I suspect that the season end is chosen for consistency so that NHC can close the books on the ATL/EPAC/CENPAC all at the same time.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Forgot Hurricane Winnie in 1983 which was during the 4-7 December timeframe plus there were two disturbances originating in EPAC that became named storms in CENPAC in late November- Iwa (until Iniki, HI's worse hurricane hit) and Paka which entered WPAC becoming a STY that blitzed Guam big time. I suspect that the season end is chosen for consistency so that NHC can close the books on the ATL/EPAC/CENPAC all at the same time.

Steve

I'm saying between Nov. 15 - 30, I didn't include Winnie because it formed in December, and the Eastern Pacific has nothing to with the Central Pacific except that from time to time cyclones cross from one basin to the other, that's why the cyclone in the CPAC are also not included.

[Aslkahuna]

I didn't include the CENPAC storms either though they both began as EPAC disturbances that moved into CENPAC. Actually, trying to separate the Pacific Tropics is about as sensible as saying that activity in the Atlantic doesn't have any bearing upon what goes on in the EPAC and vice versa. The atmosphere is one big entity and what goes on in one place has a bearing upon what goes on in another. Again I say that the season end is probably an administrative function so that NHC can close the books on all three at one time and I seriously doubt that they will be convinced to do otherwise.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

NHC doesn't have the responsibility over the CPAC, so I dont think the CPAC season would be an issue.

Also, the season is definately not related to systems affecting land as if that were the case, the season would begin in Feb with the 1952 cyclone (I believe Alice in 1995 remained just offshore) and end on Dec 24, the date in whcih Lili hit Hispaniola as a depression in 1984 (same date as the questionable SNE Hurricane of 1994)

[Aslkahuna]

You're right about CENPAC maybe I should have said NOAA instead of NHC. No matter though. Maybe I should hit the ganja so that I can see tropical characteristics in an ET Low.

Steve