Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

Another dry, but mostly cloudy morning here in the LK Goodwin area. Its like the movie groundhog day, same exact weather day after day after day

Still only .1" of rainfall since mid April.

[TT-SEA]

That will change by tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

I am really confused why the NWS has been focusing on today rather than tomorrow when predicting this rain event.

Monday has always been an afterthought in their discussions.

Today will feature scattered showers but nothing too dramatic.

Monday will have much heavier rain spreading from south to north all the way to the Canadian border. The models have been saying this all along but the NWS focuses attention on Sunday instead.

AND... they have been dismissing what is actually a sizable event for May.

[AnthonyC]

I agree TT-SEA.

The models have been jumping on Monday for the past several days, yet NWS has Monday as an after thought. Today could be fairly dry as the upper level low sits off the Oregon coast...but as it moves inland and a diffluent flow aloft develops, tomorrow could be a very active day.

And the GFS models continue to indicate a very wet pattern developing in about a week. This is due to a significant zonal flow. What do you think about this TT-SEA? Does it seem unusual for so late in the season?

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

It is a little late in the season... but remember the last week of May last year???

That was wild!!

The MJO has been unusually active this year and it is poised to bring another round of zonal flow and wet weather in mid-May much like it did at the end of March and early April.

[TT-SEA]

For what its worth... the 12Z run of the local MM5 shows 1-2 inches of rain throughout most of the Seattle area tomorrow.

[R-Dub]

I hope we get some rain tomarrow, its really turing into a dust bowl up here, and I am getting tired of watering at work and at home!! Still mostly cloudy, mild and dry up here!

[TT-SEA]

You will.

It is incredibly lush down here. Our 14+ inches of rain since March 16th has made for a very green landscape!!

[snow_wizzard]

We are getting some decent rain in Covington right now. We have already had about 0.15 of an inch. There is no doubt the models are hinting at some goodly rainfall amounts over the next couple of days. Strangely enough, it looks like it's going to be more of that SE flow stuff. Very odd how often we have seen that over the past several weeks!

[TT-SEA]

Actually... rain with SE flow is not that strange this time of year.

The jet stream is weak and upper lows wander around this time of year.

[andycottle]

Good evening all. Pretty much a cloudy day here with a little sun early this afternoon. Also had a few spotty sprinkels early this morning, but my area didn`t actually start to get a steady light rain till early this evening.

Latest GFS, ETA, AVN and MRF showing a rather wet monday.....so could be a really grey and rainy day. -- Andy

[R-Dub]

Its finally raining here!!!!!

Hope we get more then .1"

[andycottle]

Looks like 'rain' will be ending here shortly.

[invisible]

It looks like we will have above normal temperature for another week. The rate for PNA for today is 0.4. The PNA prediction will be in the postive state for a week.

I am not sure about MJO. Will we still get below or normal temperature with positive PNA and below MJO??

[andycottle]

Whoa here...!! Anyone read tonights AFD yet? You should! Tomorrow could be VERY interesting!
Here`s the AFD from the Seattle NWS.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THRU MON. H700 A GOOD LEVEL TO LOOK AT THE LOW EAST BUT THEN SPIN UP NICELY AND MOVE A BIT WWD OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL GO TO STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW LATER MONDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN WA...STRONGER WESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS WORTH AN ADVISORY LATER. THE MM5ETA HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT AT NW20-30KT. THE DETAILS ARE ALL VERY INTERESTING AND COMPLICATED BUT SUFFICE TO SAY IT WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A DEEP MOIST AIR MASS AND AREAS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TOPPED BY CIRCULATION CENTERS ALOFT THAT MEANDER AROUND SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLY. PROBABLY THE MOST INTERESTING THING IN THE MODEL THIS EVENING IS THE FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT DEVELOP ABOUT THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT...QUITE A TIGHT LITTLE LOW BY THAT TIME OVER ERN WA. HIGH POPS FOR WA BY THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY ERN WA...AND LIKELY POPS FOR WRN WA PROBABLY GOOD ENUF. MM

Does this mean the a VERY real threat of severe storms tomorrow? Sure seems to be like it....or maybe it just sounds that way to me.

[snow_wizzard]

That is an interesting discussion. At this point I would say it's a wait and see game for thunderstorms. If there are any sunbreaks at all, I would say there is a good chance. Even without sun, the dynamics are so good that anything is possible.

Invisible...At this point, I think the MJO is a bigger deal than the PNA.

The latest GFS has moved up the timing of the expected strong zonal flow, by a good two days. At this point it shows the 7 - 15 day period will be quite cool and wet. In fact, it shows us getting hammered by a pattern more typical of March! The models show that all of the warm air will be hundreds of miles to the SE and E of us, so we should be in for a long cool period. It appears that the MJO was right again! I thought the GFS had been a bit slow at showing the onslaught of the unseasonably cool and wet pattern. Right now it looks like we may only see above normal temps on about Wednesday through Saturday.

[andycottle]

Good morning all. We have some fog here this morning and also light drizzel that is currently moving westward. Temp at 7:50a.m is 52 with humdity 100% and baro 29.38 and steady. -- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

By the looks of the radar Covington is about to get hit with some heavy rain! It's all showing up as orange and red. It appears that the area south of Seattle will be the big winner once again. The pattern expected to set up next week will bring plenty of rain for the entire area. The GFS continues to show an unseanably cool pattern setting in for the 6 - 15 day period.

[snow_wizzard]

Wow! The GFS continues to show a complete collapse of our weather pattern by early next week.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... 0_168m.htm

Now that is what I call an unseasonable weather pattern! The low pressure belt is quite abnormally far south for so late in the season.

[TT-SEA]

I hope the GFS is right.

I would love to get one more blast of zonal flow and heavy rain before the real summer starts.

The current storm has gone slightly south of the predicted track and therefore areas north of Seattle are getting missed again!!

Remember that blast during the last of week of May last year?? We had 4.5 inches of rain that week.