Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #5381 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 7:14 pm

Really coming down hard here in North Bend now.

Still... we are only at .20 for the day.

andycottle · #5382 Postby **andycottle** » Mon May 09, 2005 7:45 pm

Hi Tim, Snow wizzard, Randy, and all the rest

.

Our weather today has been mainly cloudy with just a few little light showers here/there. Slightly cooler also. My high today was 60 with a low of 51. Currently 58 right now. Looks like the heavy rain is about 5, 6 miles south of me and heading on a westward track. -- Andy

snow_wizzard · #5383 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 09, 2005 7:53 pm

TT...That was quite a rain at the end of May last year. It looks like this will be different, probably more wet days, cooler, and not as heavy of rain in a short period. Looking at the upper air maps for the final third of May last year, one would think it should have been quite cool, but it wasn't. Tha zonal flow next week should be quite favorable for unseasonably cool temps. The MJO looks like it outperformed the models again. It said very cool by mid May over a week ago and the models were fairly wish washy until the past two days!

snow_wizzard · #5384 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 09, 2005 8:24 pm

Amazing but true! Ellensburg received over 1/10th of its normal YEARLY rainfall today. This "drought" is falling apart at the seams!

My prediction stands...this whole drought thing was much ado about nothing.

TT-SEA · #5385 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 8:30 pm

Absolute deluge right now in North Bend. Really coming down hard.

TT-SEA · #5386 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 8:33 pm

The drought is primarily a result of the low mountain snowpack.

And we will need frequent rain all summer to avoid really big problems.

The drought is very real.

Even if some places are getting good rain right now.

TT-SEA · #5387 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 8:44 pm

But this moist easterly flow is awesome for places east of the mountains.

Places normally rain-shadowed are in an upslope situation.

andrewr · #5388 Postby **andrewr** » Mon May 09, 2005 8:55 pm

It's been raining pretty good here for a while now. Up to about .3 inches for the day although it seems like it has rained more than that.

snow_wizzard · #5389 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 09, 2005 9:02 pm

Good points TT. This setup is a mother lode of rainfall for eastern Washington. This will go a long way toward helping us dodge the bullet. This rain will be very beneficial for keeping any fire danger out of the picture for quite some time. If we can get to July with wetter than normal conditions we should breeze through this. By then it is only a couple of months till fall!

I will be quite curious to see how low (or not low) Lake Keechelus is when I go over the pass in a couple of weeks. That is the yardstick I like to use. Few people realize that last year was actually drier up till now than this year.

TT-SEA · #5390 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 9:11 pm

Its really low.

andycottle · #5391 Postby **andycottle** » Mon May 09, 2005 9:23 pm

Ok here...lets not fast foward the clocks too far ahead..lol. Need to enjoy summer first. 8-)

But your right, snow wizzard. If we can plenty of rain now...hopefully the fire danger will be on the low side come summer.\

-- Andy

R-Dub · #5392 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon May 09, 2005 9:35 pm

Well last night we got .15" and today so far we have had .2" which has all fallen in the last 2hrs. We had a sprinkle at around 7:00AM then the rest of the day was dry until about 5:00PM.

Currently 57 degrees

andycottle · #5393 Postby **andycottle** » Mon May 09, 2005 10:10 pm

Latest GFS tonight showing very wet conditions for tomorrow with 6hr and 12hr precip totals being near an inch. But again, just like today....the south puget sound area will likely get most of the rain as the main energy will be focused down in that area. Central sound may also see some rain, but probably not much, and even more less in the way of rain as you go further up in the North sound area.

As far the upper levels go....850MB temp around +6 to +8C with winds turning westerly at 20 to 30kts by late morning as a moderately strong 997MB low backs up against the southern cascades of Eastern Wa. Could see some strong winds over there, but checking the forecast for Yakimaw and Goldendale.....just some breezy winds at times with a chance of showers are forecasted. So while some of us could see a rainy Tuesday, high temps should be mild and probably low-mid 60`s.

-- Andy

snow_wizzard · #5394 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon May 09, 2005 10:16 pm

TT...To me it is a little bit odd that we have had near normal precip, but Lake Keechelus is already low. It seems like we should be seeing high water levels early in the season. I can't help but wonder if they might have made some poor decisions on how much water they dumped during the winter. :eek:

Another 0.35 to add to the very wet spring we have had in Covington! This is the most lush and green I have seen it since I have lived here. I think we need to call this more of a snow shortage in the mountains than a drought.

TT-SEA · #5395 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon May 09, 2005 11:18 pm

I agree Snow_Wizzard... it is lush green out there. Does not look like a drought!!

We have had .48 here and now we are in a downslope situation. There is a persistent hole in the precipitation over North Bend.

AnthonyC · #5396 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue May 10, 2005 12:15 am

A good soaking the past two hours...I was driving home from a friend's house and it seemed like a monsoon. We've probably received in excess of 0.25 inch of rain the past few hours.

As for tomorrow...expect another wet day as an impulse from the upper level low spreads into Eastern Washington. Just something to note...with a surface low tracking along the east slopes of the cascades, there's the small possibility of a gale surge down the Strait of Juan Defuca...you've got higher pressure forming off the coast and lower pressure tracking into Eastern Washington. It will not be a high wind event, but something to watch...esp. since it's the middle of May.

And next week looks like a continuation of active weather as a progressive pattern develops. Seems a little extreme for the middle/end of May, but not unheard of. If models are accurate, snow levels could be fairly low...around 5k with plenty of moisture. May help the drought situation. Hopefully this weather turns just in time for summer.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #5397 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue May 10, 2005 2:35 am

The rain just keeps falling! We have now had 0.56. Ellensburg has had 1.27 (truly incredible for them). Covington has now had a whopping 10.22 inches since mid March.

The progs for next week are more amazing than ever. Heights possibly drop below 540 with a 984 mb low shown to track dangerously close to the coast. March is coming! The weather has flipped out this year!

R-Dub · #5398 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue May 10, 2005 6:23 am

Well its currently dry here in the north sound at 4:20AM. Since this little rain event started on Sunday night we have only had .35"
The constant rain has stayed just south of me, with only the occasional rain band.

TT-SEA · #5399 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue May 10, 2005 7:40 am

R-Dub... you more than tripled the previous month's rainfall total!!

The rain has pretty much stopped here now after a total of .92 for the storm.

It is looking like a very wet May.

andycottle · #5400 Postby **andycottle** » Tue May 10, 2005 10:26 am

Good morning all.

We sure had a fair amount rain during the over night hours with moderate rain at times. My precip total since 9pm last night is .55".

Current weather this morning as of 8:32a.m is cloudy skies with a temp of 53, humidity 100%, and baro 29.68 and steady.

-- Andy

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