Pacific Northwest Weather

[weather girl]

Don't know if you guys read the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion or not, but I find it very interesting. For this month, especially this part:

A majority of the statistical and coupled model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail during the northern summer (June-August). The spread in the forecasts indicates increasing uncertainty during the last half of 2005.

They mentioned the fluctuating MJO as well. I've been reading the Diagnostic Discussion for a number of years now, and I've never read this much uncertainty. I think they must be leaning towards another El Nino (especially taking the Australian analysts writings into consideration,)_ but I'm not entirely sure. Any chance they're thinking La Nina? Also, snowwizard if you're reading---I know you were looking earlier, but do you have anything on the 1884 summer? Should be very interesting over the next several months. 46 and raining on my way home from work yesterday.

I've linked the entire Diagnostic Discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... index.html

[donsutherland1]

Weather girl,

The big drop in the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) during April confirmed the idea that neutral ENSO conditions would likely prevail during the summer. If one assesses temperature trends in the various ENSO regions and the MEI, both are in good agreement on neutral conditions.

Farther ahead, both analogs constructed from the latest ENSO data and the ENSO models suggest that the coming winter will probably see either neutral ENSO conditions or a new El Niño--a significant number of the models, though short of a majority, suggest a new El Niño. At this juncture, using both analogs and the ENSO models, a La Niña remains unlikely through Winter 2005-06.

[Guest]

Hey Guys it is very good to be back on here! I have been reading about the possibility of El Nino next winter, but I don't think that it will develope through next winter starting in the fall.

Go Sonics... hope to talk to you all again soon

[snow_wizzard]

Don...Have you heard about anything other than a very weak El Nino? I have heard, if we have one it will not even be 1 degree above normal. The interesting thing is that the deep water readings are colder than they were last year at this time.

[weather girl]

Thanks, Don. I don't even know enough to know what it is I don't know.

The models seem to be a littler zanier than usual this year, but then that's not all that extraordinary for this time of year either. I guess we'll know more by this time next month.

[Guest]

Hey TT what's going on? I hear that you think next winter won't be so bad after all!

[TT-SEA]

Hey Brennan.

[andycottle]

Good afternoon all. A pretty good afternoon here as skies are partly cloudy with a temp of 65 as of 4:50pm. Looks like areas to the north of me and away from cascades foot hills are clear to partly cloudy, while areas to the south and west remain on the cloudy side. Latest GFS showing high pressure lasting till about this weekend as that is when we could our next chance of showers. -- Andy

[Guest]

Where is everyone? It is 5:30 and nobody is talking about anything!!! Common I was hoping to come back to some action... The next few weeks is going to be talked about a lot i am betting though... I guess i'll just have to wait a little bit.

[andycottle]

Actually the board has been a bit quite lately and not a whole lot of talk except about the climate that has been going on between Tim and snow wizzard. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Who let you back in??

[invisible]

Welcome back, Brennan.

We didnt get any rainfall since two nights ago. It was amazing that some south areas in Washington got a lot of rain last night.

It looks like we will be in wet pattern next week. The model shows that we will get a lot of rain between day 4 and 16. It's not normal for the month of May.

Is it something with this winter ???

[invisible]

I figured out that the year of 1988 had almost the same prepicatation pattern as this year.

Sea/Tac Airport
1988
January- 4.07
February- 0.70
March- 3.75

2005
January- 3.99
February- 1.31
March- 3.92

The temperature of 1988 had normal January and March with above normal February. This year was on another side. All of these months were opposite.

The winter of 1988/1989 had 14.20 inches of snow. It's possible that we will have the same winter as 1988/1989. I hope that kind of cold winter will happen this winter.

[TT-SEA]

While the precipitation pattern in Seattle was similar in the spring of 1988... the rest of the global weather patterns were totally different. There is no correlation between 1988 and 2005.

Although 1988 was an extreme year. The drought and the heat in the Midwest that year was unbelievable.

[andycottle]

Mostly cloudy day here with some late afternoon partical clearing. By early evening and into later part of the evening, skies became cloudy again. No precip was seen today, but did have a fair amount of rain late last night and through about the 3a.m hour this morning. My total precip from last night through today is .55". And my high today was 66 with a low of 51.

[donsutherland1]

Snow_wizzard,

I believe it's a little soon to speculate on just how strong the El Niño might be during the winter, as a new El Niño is not necessarily assured. Later in the summer, a better idea should be possible.

FWIW, the Winter 2004-05 El Niño did not see the Region 3.4 temperature reach 1° above normal. The highest monthly anomaly was +0.84°C in December 2004. The highest weekly anomalies were +0.9°C centered around the weeks of September 22, September 29, December 1 and December 8.

[AnthonyC]

Couldn't break out of the stubborn clouds today...currently mostly cloudy but mild...64F.

If you thought this pattern was miserable, just wait till this weekend and beyond...very wet for this time of year. A very progressive, zonal flow should develop starting Friday and lasting for the forseeable future...it all adds up to abundant rain and cold temperatures for this time of year...high temps in the mid, upper 50s.

This is flippin' ridiculous! I knew we were gonna pay for all the sun in February and March!!

Anthony

[andycottle]

In retrospect....you just know that when we have a strech of nice blue sky and sunny days, that mother nature will be sure and make it up to us. For sure! -- Andy

PS....A cloudy day here also with no real breaks in the clouds through early/late afternoon. Though right now, we are starting to have peaks of dim sun. Cuurently 61 as of 5:27pm.

[andycottle]

Today was pretty much a grey and cloudy day with no 'real' sunbreaks except a few peaks of dim sun. Was mild though...so that was nice. My high today was 61 with a low of 51.

Starting this Friday or Saturday....looks like a pretty strong and almost nearly zonal flow developes, which will give us some really wet weather times as a 140kt+ Jet is aimed at the PNW coast. And actually, this zonal flow lasts through about the middle of the month.....per 12z, 18z GFS.

-- Andy

[invisible]

Thank you, Tim.

I think we were lucky about the weather since three days. We only had cloudy in the morning. We had mostly sunny in the afternoon and early evening. The temperature since Monday was from 66 to 72 F. It was nice.

It's supposed to be 72 F with clearing late in the morning. It must be nice for us.

Im disappointed that we will get a lot of rain this Saturday.

I believe that we will get a heat wave in early June because we will be in wet and cold pattern for about two weeks. When this pattern is over, we will enter warmer and drier patterm. Mother nature just wants to balance PNW out.